http://www.pacificdisaster.net New Alerts Defined in Pacific Disaster Net http://www.pacificdisaster.net/pdn2008/assets/pdn_header_s.png http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1458 Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 05/1422 UTC 2012 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F [992HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 179.9W AT 050600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED FROM RSMC, NADI. ********************************************************************* ****** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTRE [999HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 174.6E AT 051100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARDS AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION INCREASED AS WELL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG WESTERLY STEERING. HIGH SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SST IS AROUND 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT PICKING THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED IN THE AREA. Sun, 05 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1458 2012-02-05T12:00:00Z http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1457 Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Fiji ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 2:11am on Monday the 6th of February 2012 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F CENTRE [991HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23 DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 40 KM/HR. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED UNDER THE ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAINBANDS OVER ONO-I-LAU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 25 KM/HR. AT THIS STAGE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER FIJI WATERS. ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 740 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 6PM TODAY. FOR ONO-I-LAU: EXPECT NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 65 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 95 KM/HR. WINDS GRADUALLY EASING TO 55 KM/HR IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF FIJI: EXPECT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 45 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80 KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS. The following information is provided especially for the mariners: FOR ONO-I-LAU WATERS: EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS, EASING TO 30 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. HIGH SEAS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FOR THE REST OF WATERS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS.POOR VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5.00 AM TODAY. Sun, 05 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1457 2012-02-05T12:00:00Z http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1456 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 05/1352 UTC 2012 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F [991HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4S 178.0W AT 051200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION INCREASED IN PAST 24 HOURS BUT CONFINED TO EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND BENEATH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED EASTWARDS. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TD10F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 052000 UTC OR EARLIER. Sun, 05 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1456 2012-02-05T12:00:00Z http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1455 Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Fiji ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 1:22am on Monday the 6th of February 2012 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F CENTRE [991HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23 DECIMAL 2 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 5 WEST OR ABOUT 285 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF ONO-I-LAU AT 9PM TODAY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS 40 KM/HR. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED UNDER THE ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAINBANDS OVER ONO-I-LAU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KM/HR. AT THIS STAGE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER FIJI WATERS. ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 860 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 9AM TOMORROW. FOR ONO-I-LAU: EXPECT NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 65 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF FIJI: EXPECT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 45 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80 KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS. The following information is provided especially for the mariners: FOR ONO-I-LAU WATERS: EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 60 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FOR THE REST OF WATERS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS.POOR VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2.00 AM TODAY. Sun, 05 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1455 2012-02-05T12:00:00Z http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1454 Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 05/1243 UTC 2012 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F [992HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 179.9W AT 050600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED FROM RSMC, NADI. ********************************************************************* ****** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 174.6E AT 051100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARDS AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION INCREASED AS WELL IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG WESTERLY STEERING. HIGH SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SST IS AROUND 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT PICKING THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED IN THE AREA. Sun, 05 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1454 2012-02-05T12:00:00Z http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1453 Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 12:23am on Monday the 6th of February 2012 A GALE WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP. ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 860 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 9AM TOMORROW. FOR ONO-I-LAU: EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 65 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF FIJI: EXPECT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 45 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80 KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F CENTRE [991HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23 DECIMAL 2 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 5 WEST OR ABOUT 285 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF ONO-I-LAU AT 9PM TODAY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS 40 KM/HR. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED UNDER THE ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAINBANDS OVER ONO-I-LAU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KM/HR. AT THIS STAGE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER FIJI WATERS. The following information is provided especially for the mariners: FOR ONO-I-LAU WATERS: EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 60 KNOTS WITH HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FOR THE REST OF WATERS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS. POOR VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2.00 AM TOMORROW. Sun, 05 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1453 2012-02-05T12:00:00Z http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1452 Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Tonga ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 05/1201 UTC 2012 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA LAND AREAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F CENTRE [991HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23 DECIMAL 3 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 2 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUKUALOFA AT 051000 UTC. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS TO 20 KNOTS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED UNDER THE ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAINBANDS SOME 60 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION MAY BRING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE TONGATAPU GROUP IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR TONGATAPU GROUP: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS UPTO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. FOR REMAINDER OF TONGA: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS UPTO 25 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. TONGA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE: PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN. THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 051800 UTC. Sun, 05 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1452 2012-02-05T12:00:00Z http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1451 Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 10:59pm on Sunday the 5th of February 2012 A GALE WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F CENTRE [991HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23 DECIMAL 2 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 5 WEST OR ABOUT 285 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF ONO-I-LAU AT 9PM TODAY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS 40 KM/HR. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED UNDER THE ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAINBANDS OVER ONO-I-LAU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KM/HR. AT THIS STAGE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER FIJI WATERS. ON THIS TRACK, THE DEPRESSION CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 860 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 9AM TOMORROW. FOR ONO-I-LAU: EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 65 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF FIJI: EXPECT STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 45 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80 KM/HR. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS. THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2.00 AM TOMORROW. Sat, 04 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1451 2012-02-04T12:00:00Z http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1450 Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 05/0921 UTC 2012 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F [992HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 179.9W AT 050600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED FROM RSMC, NADI. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED IN THE AREA. Sat, 04 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1450 2012-02-04T12:00:00Z http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1449 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 05/0803 UTC 2012 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F [992HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 179.9W AT 050600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION INCREASED IN PAST 24 HOURS BUT CONFINED TO NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE. LLCC HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN PAST 3 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND BENEATH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED EASTWARDS BY WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INTO A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIROMENT. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT EAST SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE. THIS IS THE FIRST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 051400 UTC OR EARLIER. Sat, 04 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT http://www.pacificdisaster.net/rss/ShowServlet?title=Fiji Meteorological Service&sql=Select * From Alert Where Id=1449 2012-02-04T12:00:00Z