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Kiribati  
 
 
2005 Census  
 
 
Volume 2: Analytical Report  
 
 
 
January 2007 
 
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i
CONTENTS 
 
 
page
Foreword 
vii
Acknowledgement 
viii
Summary of main indicators 
ix
Executive summary 
xi
 
1 INTRODUCTION 
1
 
2 POPULATION TREND, COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE 
2
   2.1 Population trend 
2
   2.2 Population composition 
5
   2.3 Population structure  
6
 
3 DEMOGRAPHIC COMPONENTS 
12
   3.1 Fertility 
12
   3.2 Mortality 
19
   3.3 Migration 
26
      3.3.1 Internal migration 
26
      3.3.2 International migration 
30
 
SOCIAL CHARACTERISTICS 33
   4.1 Marital status 
33
   4.2 Religion 
36
   4.3 Health 
37
      4.3.1 Smoking tobacco 
37
      4.3.2 Drinking alcohol 
38
   4.4 Educational characteristics 
40
      4.4.1 School enrolment 
40
      4.4.2 Educational attainment 
40
      4.4.3 Educational qualification 
42
   4.5 Labor market activity 
43
      4.5.1 Introduction 
43
      4.5.2 Employed - cash workers and village workers 
44
      4.5.3 Labour force participation rate and Employment-population ratio 
      4.5.4 Employed cash workers by work status 
      4.5.5 Employed cash workers by industry group 
46
      4.5.6 Employed cash workers by occupational group 
46
      4.5.7 Unemployed 
47
      4.5.8 Not in the labor force 
48
 
5 HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS 
50
   5.1 Household size 
50
   5.2 Household composition 
53
   5.3 Household amenities and appliances 
54
      5.3.1 Private households by main source of drinking water, Kiribati, 2005 
54
      5.3.2 Private households by type of toilet facility used, Kiribati, 2005 
54
      5.3.3 Private households by source of lighting, Kiribati, 2005 
54
      5.3.4 Private households and availability of capital goods, Kiribati, 2005 
58
 
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ii
CONTENTS (continue) 
 
 
page
6 POPULATION PROJECTIONS 
59
   6.1 
Projection Assumptions
 
59
   6.2 
Projection Results
 
66
 
7 IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 
73
   7.1 Population Dynamics 
73
   7.2 Cross-Cutting Issues 
76
 
Appendices 
81
Glossary 
90
Island Summary Information 
93
 
 
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iii
LIST OF TABLES 
 
 
 
 
page
Table 1:  
Population size, growth, distribution and density by island/region, Kiribati: 1995 to 2005 
3
Table 2:  
Population density (number of persons per sqkm) by island/region, Kiribati: 1995, 2000 and 
2005 
4
Table 3:  
Distribution of the population by age, dependency ratio, median age, and sex ratio, Kiribati: 
2000 and 2005 
9
Table 4:  
Female population 15 years and older by number of children ever born alive, Kiribati: 2005 
12
Table 5:  
Reported number of births by age of women and year/period of birth of last born child, 
Kiribati: 2005 
13
Table 6:  
Reported number of children born during 12 months before the census by age group of 
mother, Kiribati: 2005 
13
Table 7: 
Number of reported deliveries, number of female family planning users, and 
estimated contraceptive prevalence rate, Kiribati: 2001-2005
 
16
Table 8:  
Estimated and adjusted Age Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR), Total Fertility Rate (TFR), 
Crude Birth Rate (CBR), and Mean Age at Childbearing (MAC), Kiribati: 2005 
18
Table 9:  
Female population 15 years and older by number of children ever born, number of children 
still alive, and number of children dead, Kiribati: 2005 
19
Table 10:   Female population 15 years and older by proportion of children ever born still alive, and 
proportion now dead, Kiribati: 2005 
20
Table 11:   Mortality indicators, Kiribati: 2005 
21
Table 12:   Abridged Life Table based on 2005 census data, Kiribati Males: 2005 
23
Table 13   Abridged Life Table based on 2005 census data, Kiribati Females: 2005 
23
Table 14:  Reported number of deliveries, number of deaths due to pregnancy or delivery, and maternal 
mortality rate, Kiribati: 2001-2004 
25
Table 15:   Population by place of enumeration and usual residence five years ago (in 2000), Kiribati: 
2005 
26
Table 16:   Interregional migration during 5 years before the 2005 census, Kiribati: 2005 
27
Table 17:   Population by place of enumeration and place of birth, Kiribati: 2005 
27
Table 18:   Interregional lifetime migration, Kiribati: 2005 
28
Table 19:   Population by secondary or tertiary qualification, Kiribati: 2005 
42
Table 20:   Population 15 years and older by sex, rural-urban residence, labour force participation rate, 
and employment-population ratio, Kiribati: 2005 
Table 21:   Population 15 years and older and unemployment status according to various unemployment 
concepts, Kiribati: 2005 
48
Table 22:   Number of private households, number of occupants, and average household size by 
island/region, Kiribati: 2000 and 2005 
50
Table 23:   Number of private households by household size and persons per household, Kiribati: 2005 
52
Table 24:   Population by household composition (relationship to head of household), Kiribati: 2005 
53
Table 25:  Population structure and indicators according to three different projections, Kiribati: 2025 
69
 
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iv
LIST OF FIGURES 
 
 
 
 
page
Figure 1:   Population size, Kiribati and South Tarawa: 1931 to 2005 
2
Figure 2:   Annual population growth rate by island/region, Kiribati: 2000-2005 
3
Figure 3:   Population composition, Kiribati: 2005 
5
Figure 4:   Sex ratio by island/region, Kiribati: 2005 
6
Figure 5:   Population pyramid, Kiribati: 2000 and 2005 
7
Figure 6:   Population pyramid, South Tarawa: 2000 and 2005 
8
Figure 7:   Population pyramid, Rural areas (Outer Islands): 2000 and 2005 
8
Figure 8:   Proportion of population by broad age groups by island/region, Kiribati, 2005 
9
Figure 9:   Median age by island/region, Kiribati: 2005 
10
Figure 10:   Age dependency ratio by island/region, Kiribati: 2005 
11
Figure 11:   Estimates of TFR based on ‘own-children method’, Kiribati: 1968-2005 
15
Figure 12:   Population size 10 years and younger by single years, and (approximate) year of birth, 
Kiribati: 2005 
15
Figure 13:   Reported number of deliveries and number of females of childbearing age using family 
planning, Kiribati: 2001-2005 
16
Figure 14:   Age specific fertility rates (ASFR), Kiribati: 1995-2005 
17
Figure 15:   Proportion of children ever born still alive by age of mother, Kiribati: 2005 
20
Figure 16:   Proportion of population 15 years and older with father/mother still alive, Kiribati,: 
2005 
22
Figure 17:  Population 15 years and older by marital status, Kiribati: 2005 
33
Figure 18:   Population 15 years and older by sex and proportion married, Kiribati: 2005 
34
Figure 19:   Population 15 years and older by sex and proportion never married (single), Kiribati: 
2005 
34
Figure 20:  Population 15 years and older by sex and proportion widowed, Kiribati: 2005 
35
Figure 21:   Population by religion, Kiribati: 2005 
36
Figure 22:   Proportion of population 10 years and older that regularly smokes tobacco, Kiribati: 
2005 
37
Figure 23:   Proportion of population 10 years and older that regularly drinks alcohol, Kiribati: 2005 
39
Figure 24:   Proportion of population 10 years and older that occasionally drinks alcohol, Kiribati: 
2005 
39
Figure 25:   Population 5 years and older by sex and attending school, Kiribati: 2005 
40
Figure 26:   Population 15 years and older by sex and educational attainment (in percent), Kiribati: 
2005 
41
Figure 27:   Population 15 years and older by sex and educational attainment (in percent), Kiribati: 
1995 
42
Figure 28:   Population 15 years and older by sex and labor market activity, Kiribati: 2005 
44
Figure 29:   Population 15 years and older by urban-rural residence and labor market activity, 
Kiribati: 2005 
45
Figure 30:   Employed population 15 years and older by age and sex, Kiribati: 2005 
45
Figure 31:   Population 15 years and older by age and sex and labour force participation rate, 
Kiribati: 2005 
Figure 32:   Population 15 years and older by age and sex and employment-population ratio, 
Kiribati: 2005 
Figure 33:   Employed cash workers by work status and sex, Kiribati: 2005 
Figure 34:   Employed cash workers by industry, Kiribati: 2005  
46
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Figure 35:   Employed cash workers by occupation, Kiribati: 2005  
47
Figure 36:   Unemployment rate by age and sex, Kiribati, 2005  
48
Figure 37:   Average household size (number of persons per household) by island/region, Kiribati: 
2005 
51
Figure 38:   Distribution of households and population living in private households, by household 
size, Kiribati: 2005 
52
Figure 39:  Proportion of private households and availability of capital goods 
58
Figure 40:  Estimated past levels of fertility, and future fertility assumptions for projections, 
Kiribati: 1960-2025 
61
Figure 41:  Estimated past levels of mortality, and future mortality assumptions for projections, 
Kiribati: 1995-2025 
62
Figure 42:  Migration assumptions for population projections, Kiribati: 2005-2025 
64
Figure 43:  Assumed age distribution of net migrants (in per cent of total number of migrants) used 
for the population projections, Kiribati: 2005-2025 
65
Figure 44:  Past and future population trend according to 9 projection variants, Kiribati: 2005 - 
2025 
66
Figure 45:  Past and future population trend according to the High, Medium, and Low population 
scenario, Kiribati:  2005 - 2025 
67
Figure 46:  Population aged 6-15 years (mandatory school age) according to the High, Medium and 
Low population scenarios, Kiribati: 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 
68
Figure 47:  Population by broad age groups according to 3 scenarios, Kiribati: 2010 
70
Figure 48:  Population by broad age groups according to 3 scenarios, Kiribati: 2015 
70
Figure 49:  Population by broad age groups according to 3 scenarios, Kiribati: 2025 
70
Figure 50:  Population pyramid, High population projection: 2005 and 2025 
71
Figure 51:  Population pyramid, Medium population projection: 2005 and 2025 
71
Figure 52:  Population pyramid, Low population projection: 2005 and 2025 
71
 
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vi
LIST OF MAPS 
 
 
 
 
page
Map 1:   Net migration, Kiribati: 2000-2005 
29
Map 2:  Percentage of households using various sources of drinking water by island in Kiribati: 2005  
55
Map 3:  Percentage of household using various types of sanitation by island in Kiribati: 2005 
56
Map 4:  Percentage of households using various sources of lighting by island in Kiribati: 2005 
57
 
 
 
 
 
 
APPENDICES 
 
 
 
 
Page
A 1:  
Arriaga's approach for estimation of ASFR for two points in time and the age patterns of 
fertility (Arriaga-Brass), MORTPAK4.1, procedure FERTPF, United Nations 
82
A 2: 
Estimates of Fertility Based on the Arriaga Method, PAS spreadsheets, procedure ARFE-2, 
US Census Bureau 
83
A 3: 
Child mortality indices based on number of children ever born and still alive, using 
procedure CEBCS of MORTPAK 4.1 for MALES, Kiribati: 2005 
84
A 4: 
Child mortality indices based on number of children ever born and still alive, using 
procedure CEBCS of MORTPAK 4.1 for FEMALES, Kiribati: 2005 
85
A 5: 
Estimated number of deaths by age and sex for 2005, based on 2005 census population and 
calculated m(x,n)-values from abridged life tables for males and females, Kiribati: 2005 
86
A 6: 
Population 15 years and older by labor market activity, by sex, and by urban/rural residence, 
Kiribati: 2005 
87
A 7: 
Total fertility rate (TFR) of Australia, France, New Zealand, United States of America, and 
average TFR of these 4 countries: 1975-2005 
88
A 8: 
Projected population size according to 9 projection scenarios (combination of 3 different 
fertility and migration assumptions), Kiribati: 2010, 2015, and 2025 
89
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vii
FOREWORD
 
 
Since 1967 the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) has assisted Pacific Island 
countries and territories in the areas of population data collection, demographic analysis 
and population development. With the generous support from bilateral and multilateral 
donors, most notably AusAID and UNFPA, SPC has been able to provide technical 
assistance on a range of population issues to our 22 Pacific Island member countries.  
 
During the 1970s and 1980s activities concentrated on population censuses and surveys, 
covering all aspects from design, data collection and processing to analysis and 
dissemination, with a strong emphasis on training and institutional capacity building. 
While maintaining this service to our members, the programme’s overall strategic 
objective was widened in 1990 to include data utilization, paying greater attention to the 
interrelationship between population and development. This emphasis emerged in direct 
response to growing demands from our member countries.  
 
Evidence based decision-making and effective planning are essential to good governance.  
The objective guiding our programme’s activities over the last decade has been the 
strengthening of national capacities in the collection, analysis and utilization of 
population data, and in fostering a greater understanding of the interdependence between 
population dynamics and development. To achieve this objective, technical information is 
communicated so that it can be understood and applied by both technical and non-
technical users, in order to familiarise planners and policy-makers with some of the key 
features of the socio-economic and demographic situation of a country.  
 
The core theme of this report is the analysis of recent population growth and dynamics. In 
particular the level, trends, and patterns of fertility, mortality, and migration are 
discussed. The report includes a brief discussion of the likely impacts of some of these 
dynamics on wider cross-cutting issues such as the environment, health, education, and 
economic activity. Furthermore it presents a set of population projections in order to 
assist planners and policy-makers with scenarios of their future population size and 
structure. The report’s aim is to assist decision makers cater effectively for the specific 
needs of different population groups at different points in time. 
 
The SPC emphasizes the importance of close collaboration with national counterparts to 
ensure a transfer of knowledge to improve analytical methodologies, and plan and 
organize national reports.  This emphasis will facilitate the long term sustainability of 
demographic analysis in the region. 
 
This report is based on the 2005 population census and also draws on recent health 
administrative records. The profile was prepared by SPC’s Statistics and Demography 
Programme, in close collaboration with the Kiribati Statistics Office. 
 
Dr. Jimmie Rodgers 
Director General 
Secretariat of the Pacific Community 
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viii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT FROM KIRIBATI GOVERNMENT
 
 
Conducting a population census is generally a costly and time consuming activity 
however because of the need to know the population level and its characteristics for 
planning and policy formulation purposes, governments around the world, including the 
Kiribati government, have committed to undertake such an exercise every five years, or 
ten years in bigger countries. The population census certainly provides a comprehensive 
and very rich source of information on the demographic and socio-economic 
characteristics of the country. 
 
But conducting a population census is not an end in itself—it is a means to the 
formulation of appropriate policies and strategies and this can be facilitated by having 
relevant and timely analyses and this is why the production of this analytical report is 
very important to the Kiribati government.  
 
On behalf of the Kiribati government I want to extend words of thanks to SPC, in 
particular Andreas Demmke of the Statistics and Demography Programme, for this 
analytical report. I know it is not easy to decide on the topics to be included and the depth 
of the analysis to be undertaken given the wide range of information available as well as 
the range of different users of the census information but I think this report meets the 
objective of providing the basic demographic statistics as well as exposing interesting 
topics such as migration, labour force, education, etc. It is important to note that while 
there is room and scope for more in-depth analysis on the topics shown in this report, the 
idea behind this report is basically to provide key findings that planners and policy 
makers could easily understand and use. I acknowledge also with thanks the comments 
by Mr Jean-Louis Rallu of the UNFPA, Suva, on the draft of this report, particularly on 
the migration and labour force sections.  
 
As in the past population censuses, the Kiribati government has relied on funding 
assistance from development partners to supplement its own budget allocation for the 
conduct of the population census. For the 2005 Population census, AusAID and UNFPA 
contributed funding assistance and on behalf of the Kiribati government I thank these two 
donors for their contributions. 
  
On the local front I want to acknowledge the role of Ms Aritita Tekaieti in the conduct of 
the 2005 Population census as well as in the preparation of this report. I wish also to take 
this opportunity to thank all staff in the National Statistics Office as well as all census 
field officers who have taken part and contributed to the success of the 2005 Population 
Census.  
 
 
Dr. Iete Rouatu 
Director of Planning and Statistics 
Ministry of Finance and Economic Development 
Kiribati Government   
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ix
Summary of main indicators 
 
 
 
 
Total 
 
Males 
 
Females 
Total enumerated population (November 2005) 
92,533 
45,612 46,921 
   Urban population (South Tarawa) 
40,311 
19,435 
20,876 
   Percent urban (%) 
43.6 
 
 
   Rate of growth (%) of total population, 2000-2005 
1.8 
 
 
   Rate of natural increase (CBR – CDR) 
1.8 
 
 
   Population density (number of persons per square km) 
 
 
 
      Kiribati 
127 
 
 
      South Tarawa 
2,558 
 
 
   Median age (in years) 
20.7 
19.8 
21.7 
   Per cent of population younger than 15 years of age 
37 
38 
36 
   Per cent of population 15-24 years of age (youth) 
21 
21 
20 
   Per cent of population 15-59 years of age 
58 
57 
58 
   Per cent of population 60 years and older 
   Age dependency ratio 
74 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Households 
 
 
 
   Number of private households 
13,999 
 
 
      Number of persons in private households 
88,644 
43,749 
44,895 
      Average household size 
6.3 
 
 
   Number of institutions (non-private households) 
43 
 
 
      Number of persons in institutions 
3,889 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Labor market activity 
36,969 
20,013 
16,956
   Employed population (number) 
34,715 
18,883 
15,832
      Cash workers (number) 
13,133 
  8,095 
  5,038
      Village workers (number) 
21,582 
10,788 
10,794
   Unemployed (number) 
2,254 
1,130 
1,124
 
 
 
Non-labor force 
21,069 
7,926 
13,143
   Students 
7,323 
3,496 
3,827
   Persons engaged in Home duties 
6,077 
793 
5,284
   Inactive persons 
3,662 
1,996 
1,666
   Retired persons 
3,227 
1,179 
2,048
   Disabled or sick persons 
709 
398 
311
   Prisoners 
71 
64 
7
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Total 
 
Males 
 
Females
 
 
 
 
   Labour force participation rate 
63.6 
71.5 
56.3 
   Employment-population ratio 
22.6 
28.9 
16.7 
   Unemployment rate (%) 
6.1 
5.6 
6.6 
 
 
 
 
Education 
 
 
 
   School enrolment rates of 6-15 year olds (%) 
91.0 
89.1 
93.0 
   Proportion of population 15 years and older with secondary 
   or higher education 
50.5 51.6 49.5 
   Proportion of total population with secondary or  
   tertiary qualification 
19.4 18.2 20.5 
 
 
 
 
Fertility 
 
 
 
   Number of births, 2005 
2,462 
 
 
   Crude Birth Rate (CBR), 2005 
26.6 
 
 
   Total Fertility Rate (TFR), 2004-2005 
 
 
3.5 
   Teenage Fertility Rate, 2004-2005 
 
 
39 
   Mean Age at Childbearing, 2005 
 
 
29.6 
   Average age at first marriage (SMAM), 2005 
23.4 24.6 22.2 
   Contraceptive prevalence rate/family planning users  
   (as percentage of women aged 15-49, 2001-2005) 
 
 
20.5 
 
 
 
 
Mortality 
 
 
 
   Number of deaths, 2005 
806 
 
 
   Crude Death Rate (CDR), 2005 
8.7 
 
 
   Life expectancy at birth, 2003 
61.0 
58.9 
63.1 
   Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), 2003 
52 
53 
51 
   Child mortality Rate (1q5), 2003 
18 
18 
17 
   Under 5 mortality (q5), 2003 
69 
71 
67 
   Maternal mortality rate, 2001-2004 
 
 
158 
 
 
 
 
International Migration (2000-2005) 
negligible 
 
 
 
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xi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
 
The aim of this report is to provide an analysis of the 2005 Kiribati census data with a 
strong emphasis on demographic trends, patterns and levels. 
 
The 2005 census determined that the total population was 92,533. This compares to 
84,494 persons in 2000 and is an increase of 9.5 per cent or 8,039 persons. This increase 
in population represents an average annual rate of growth of 1.8 per cent. 
 
However, an increase of the population in North Tarawa was most noticeable, as well 
as in the Line Islands, in particular Tabuaeran and Kiritimati. Several islands 
experienced negative growth – a population decline – such as Kanton, Beru, Tamana, 
Maiana, Butaritari, Abaiang, and Onotoa. In terms of numbers, the largest increase was 
on South Tarawa with an increase of 3,594 people. 
 
South Tarawa’s residents of 40,311 represent 44 per cent of the total Kiribati 
population. On the Outer Islands of the Gilbert Group lived 43,372 people, and another 
8,850 in the Line and Phoenix Group Islands. 
 
The average population density was 127 persons per square kilometer. This varies 
widely from island to island. While Kiritimati has only 13 persons per square km, South 
Tarawa has 2,558 persons per square km. 
 
The census counted 13,999 private households with 88,644 household members, which 
is  6.3 persons per household on average. In South Tarawa 7.5 persons share 1 
household on average. Almost a third (26,798) of all persons that live in private 
households live in households with 10 persons or more, and 7,191 persons live in 
households with 15 persons or more. 
 
The long time trend of rural to urban (South Tarawa) migration has eased. The 2005 
census data show a net flow of persons from the Gilbert Group Islands towards the 
Line Islands
 during the intercensal period 2000-2005. 
 
The 2005 census enumerated 45,612 males and 46,921 females, which accounts to a sex 
ratio of 97
 males per 100 females. 
 
Kiribati has a young population with a median age of 20.7 years. More than one third (37 
per cent) of the population were younger than 15 years of age, and only 5 per cent were 
60 years and older. 
 
The age dependency ratio of 74 was calculated by using the 15-59 year old population 
as ‘working age population’; for every 100 persons in the working ages, there were 74 
persons in the dependent ages. 
 
The  number of births was estimated at 2,462 in 2005, and the Total Fertility Rate 
(TFR)
, the average number of births per woman, declined quite dramatically from about 
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xii
4.5 during the 1990s to about 3.5 in 2005. The overall fertility decline can be attributed to 
all age groups of women, although the largest fertility decline was among women aged 
25-29 years.  
 
Census data and hospital records are consistent by showing a particular low number of 
births and deliveries during the 3-year period 2002-2004. The low number of births is 
consistent with a low population count of the 1-3 year olds in the census. This particular 
period was characterized by a relatively high percentage of family planning users among 
women of childbearing age. The contraceptive prevalence rate was about 22 per cent 
among this group, while it was below 20 per cent before and after 2002-2004. 
 
Based on census data for the number of children ever born and still alive, the infant 
mortality rate (IMR) was estimated at 52; 53 for males and 51 for females. This 
estimate is significantly lower than in 1995 when the IMR was estimated at 67 and 56 for 
males and females respectively. 
 
Based on the estimated childhood mortality rates, life expectancies at birth were 
estimated at 58.9 and 63.1 years for males and females
 respectively. 
 
The estimated mortality indicators show more positive mortality indicators for females 
than for males, with females expected to live, on average, 4 years longer than males.  
 
Based on hospital records, the average maternal mortality rate for the period 2001-
2004 is calculated at 158 maternal deaths per 100,000 births
 
Net international migration was so small during the intercensal period 2000-2005, it 
was insignificant. However, this does not mean that there was no population movement 
during this time. For example, several hundred I-Kiribati repatriated from Nauru back to 
Kiribati during the last several years following the deterioration of Nauru’s phosphate 
driven economy.  
 
At the same time several hundred I-Kiribati left the country for New Zealand during the 
period 2000-2005, for the purpose of establishing permanent residence there. Under the 
so-called Pacific Access Category75 persons per year are allowed to migrate to New 
Zealand
, irrespective of socio-economic background. 
 
Since the repatriation of I-Kiribati from Nauru to Kiribati was completed in 2006, and 
migration towards New Zealand continues, net migration can now be expected to be 
negative: there will be more departures than arrivals in Kiribati since a steady flow of 
migration seems to have established, at least towards New Zealand. 
 
Women marry at younger ages than men. The average age at marriage was 24.6 and 
22.2 years for males and females
 respectively. 
 
With 55 per cent of the population affiliated to the Roman Catholic Church, it remains 
the dominant religious denomination of the population. The next largest group was the 
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xiii
Kiribati Protestant Church with 36 per cent of all persons, followed by the Mormons 
with 3 per cent. The only other religion with more than 2,000 members was the Bahai. 
All other religions had less than 2 per cent of the population as members 
 
The 2005 census questionnaire included several questions on smoking and drinking 
alcohol practices
 of the population aged 10 years and older. Perhaps not surprisingly, the 
proportion of males smoking tobacco and drinking alcohol is higher than females at any 
age. According to information collected almost 70 per cent of the young adult male 
population aged 30-54 said that they are regular smokers. This compares to less than 50 
per cent of the adult female population.  
 
According to the 2005 census data less than 15 per cent of males and less than 2 per cent 
of females drank alcohol regularly. A considerably higher proportion claimed to drink 
alcohol sometimes. More than 40 per cent of males aged 20-34 drank alcohol sometimes
The proportion of teenage (15-19 years of age) male and female ‘occasional drinkers’ 
was 26 and 3 per cent respectively. 
 
School enrolment data shows that almost 9 per cent of children in the age group 6–15 
years (compulsory school age) were not enrolled in schools, and almost 20 per cent of 15 
year olds were not attending school. This represents a significant improvement 
compared to 1995
 data when almost 15 per cent of the 6-15 year age group did not 
attend school. Female school enrollment rates were higher than males. 
 
Data on educational attainment confirm that educational levels have increased 
considerably since 1995. While only 27.1 and 20.6 per cent of males and females had 
secondary or higher education in 1995, this percentage has increased to 51.6 and 49.5 for 
males and females in 2005.  
 
The proportion of the population with secondary or tertiary qualifications was 18.2 per 
cent of males and 20.5 per cent of females 
 
Although a high percentage (64 per cent) of the Kiribati population 15 years and older 
was economically active, only a relatively small proportion (23 per cent) was regularly 
employed and received a regular cash income
; 29 per cent of males and 17 per cent of 
females. More than half (53 per cent) of the employed cash workers were employed in 
the Public Administration
 
Village work (subsistence farmers or fishermen) such as growing or gathering produce 
or fishing to feed their families was the main activity of 39 and 36 per cent of males and 
females 15 years and older. The proportion of village workers (of 51 per cent) was much 
higher in the rural (Outer Islands) areas, than in South Tarawa (urban), where only 20 per 
cent were village workers. 
 
The  unemployment rate was 6.1  per cent of the total labour force. The level of 
unemployment for males was 5.6 per cent and 6.6 per cent for females. In the urban 
areas, the unemployment level was recorded at 10.9 per cent compared with 2.8 per cent 
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xiv
in the rural areas. However, including village workers as part of the unemployed, on 
the grounds that these persons would look for work if they believed cash work was 
available in their labour market community, the total unemployment level would increase 
to 23,836 persons or an unemployment rate of 64.5 per cent (59.6 per cent for males 
and 70.3 per cent for females). 
 
Seventy per cent of all households obtained their drinking water from an open well. 
 
The most frequently recorded toilet facility used by half of all Kiribati households was 
beach (lagoon side), followed by a latrine (a third of the total households use this), and 
another 30 per cent used the sea (ocean side), and 27 per cent the bush
 
The most common means of lighting in Kiribati is the pressure lamp (62 per cent of 
households uses this) followed by the public electric generator (40 per cent uses this). 
However, the public generator was mainly used in South Tarawa and Kiritimati. 
 
Regarding availability of food, communication, and transport equipment, every fifth 
household owned a fridge, 7 per cent of all households owned a car, a home phone was 
available to 57 per cent of all households, and only every tenth (11 per cent) of all 
households owned a TV
 
According to the population projections prepared for this report, the population of 
Kiribati in 2025 will increase to about 130,000 people. 
 
The population will have aged with a decreasing proportion of the young population aged 
15 years and younger, and a doubling of the population aged 60 years and older. It is 
especially the working age population 15-59 year of age that will increase to about 
79,000 people. 
 
The analysis of census data provides timely and accurate information about demographic 
trends, patterns, and levels. Through census data analysis, Governments acquire 
comprehensive and consistent information on their country’s population structure, 
population processes and socio-economic characteristics. The population data provided in 
this report can be an effective tool for planning and policy makers. Because policies are 
aimed at achieving goals in the future, knowledge about future population trends is 
required. Understanding and anticipating population changes enables development 
planners to formulate effective development programmes in areas as diverse as health, 
environment, poverty reduction, social progress, and economic growth.  
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1
1 INTRODUCTION 
 
This report provides an analysis of the Kiribati 2005 census data and, where possible, it 
presents comparisons with the 2000 and earlier census data. 
 
Kiribati consists of three groups of 33 coral atolls, the Gilbert Islands, the Phoenix 
Islands, the Line Islands and one isolated volcanic island, Banaba or Ocean Island, spread 
over an area of five million square kilometers of the Central Pacific Ocean with a total 
land area of 810.5 sq. km. Administered formerly by Britain, Kiribati became 
independent on 12 July 1979. Tarawa, the capital and most populous island is about 
1,800 km north of Suva, Fiji. 
 
The report is a collaborative effort of the National Statistics Office of Kiribati, in 
particular with the Census Commissioner, Ms Aritita Tekaieti, and SPC’s Statistics & 
Demography Programme. For this purpose, Ms Tekaieti visited SPC in Noumea from 7-
28 October 2006. Iete Rouatu, the Director of Planning and Statistics, Ministry of 
Finance, Kiribati, reviewed and commented on the final draft of this report.    
 
The report is based on information presented in Volume I of the Census report which 
provides a collection of basic tables: information on each topic of information collected 
in the 2005 Kiribati census. 
 
The purpose of this report (Volume II) is twofold: 
 
 
to provide a general overview of the vast amount of detailed information that is 
available from the 2005 and earlier census enumerations, and  
 
 
to generate interest, curiosity, and a desire for more detailed information. 
 
Such information is provided in Volume I, Basic Information. Otherwise data users are 
encouraged to contact either the Kiribati Statistics Office or SPC’s Statistics & 
Demography Programme for further information. 
 
 
Kiribati Statistics Office: 
SPC’s Statistics & Demography 
Programme 
 
Ministry of Finance & Economic Development 
P.O.Box 67 
Bairiki, Tarawa 
Kiribati 
Telephone: +686 21816  
Facsimile: +686 21307 
E-mail: statistics@mfep.gov.ki 
 
Secretariat of the Pacific Community 
BP D5, 98848 Noumea Cedex 
New Caledonia 
Telephone: +687 26 20 00  
Facsimile: +687 26 38 18 
E-mail: Stats&Demog@spc.int 
http://www.spc.int
 
 
 
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2
2 POPULATION TREND, COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE 
 
2.1 Population trend 
 
The population of Kiribati, as enumerated on 7 November 2005, was 92,533 people: 
45,612 males and 46,921 females. This is an increase of 8,039 persons in 5 years 
compared to the 2000 census (84,494) with an annual rate of growth of 1.8 per cent. 
 
Figure 1: Population size, Kiribati and South Tarawa: 1931 to 2005 
29,671 31,423
43,336
47,735
51,926
56,213
63,883
72,335
77,658
84,494
92,533
1,671
6,101
10,616
14,861
17,921
21,393
25,380
28,350
36,717
40,311
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1931
1947
1963
1968
1973
1978
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Census year
P
opul
a
t
i
on (i
n num
be
r
s
)
Kiribati
South Tarawa
 
Note: 1931 data for South Tarawa is not available 
 
Kiribati’s population has steadily increased since the 1930s when the first census was 
conducted (Figure 1). With a population of just under 30,000 people in 1931, 56,000 
people in 1978, and over 90,000 in the year 2005, the Kiribati population more than 
tripled in size during the last 74 years. 
 
Population growth varied extensively by island and group of islands (Table 1, Figure 2). 
While the overall growth rate of Kiribati was 1.8 per cent per annum, the Gilbert Group 
islands grew only at a rate of 1.4 per cent while the Line & Phoenix group islands grew at 
a very rapid rate of 6.7 per cent per annum. 
 
Islands that experienced significant population increase include: South Tarawa (3,594); 
Kiritimati (1,684); Tabuaeran (782); Makin (694); Abemama (262); and North Tabiteuea 
(235).   
 
There were several islands that experienced a population loss, expressed by its negative 
growth rates, such as Butaritari, Abaiang, Maiana, Beru, Onotoa, Tamana, and Kanton. 
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3
The island with the fastest growth was Kiritimati with an average annual growth rate of 
8.0 per cent.  
 
Table 1: Population size, growth, distribution and density by island/region, Kiribati: 
1995, 2000, and 2005 
1995
2000
2005
1995-2000
2000-2005
1995-2000
2000-2005
1995-2000
2000-2005
   Banaba
339
276
301
-63
25
-18.6
9.1
-4.1
1.7
   Makin
1,830
1,691
2,385
-139
694
-7.6
41.0
-1.6
6.9
   Butaritari
3,909
3,464
3,280
-445
-184
-11.4
-5.3
-2.4
-1.1
   Marakei
2,724
2,544
2,741
-180
197
-6.6
7.7
-1.4
1.5
   Abaiang
6,020
5,794
5,502
-226
-292
-3.8
-5.0
-0.8
-1.0
   North Tarawa
4,004
4,477
5,678
473
1,201
11.8
26.8
2.2
4.8
   South Tarawa
28,350
36,717
40,311
8,367
3,594
29.5
9.8
5.2
1.9
   Maiana
2,184
2,048
1,908
-136
-140
-6.2
-6.8
-1.3
-1.4
   Abemama
3,442
3,142
3,404
-300
262
-8.7
8.3
-1.8
1.6
   Kuria
971
961
1,082
-10
121
-1.0
12.6
-0.2
2.4
   Aranuka
1,015
966
1,158
-49
192
-4.8
19.9
-1.0
3.6
   Nonouti
3,042
3,176
3,179
134
3
4.4
0.1
0.9
0.0
   North Tabiteuea
3,383
3,365
3,600
-18
235
-0.5
7.0
-0.1
1.4
   South Tabiteuea
1,404
1,217
1,298
-187
81
-13.3
6.7
-2.9
1.3
   Beru
2,784
2,732
2,169
-52
-563
-1.9
-20.6
-0.4
-4.6
   Nikunau
2,009
1,733
1,912
-276
179
-13.7
10.3
-3.0
2.0
   Onotoa
1,918
1,668
1,644
-250
-24
-13.0
-1.4
-2.8
-0.3
   Tamana
1,181
962
875
-219
-87
-18.5
-9.0
-4.1
-1.9
   Arorae
1,248
1,225
1,256
-23
31
-1.8
2.5
-0.4
0.5
Gilbert Group 
islands
71,757
78,158
83,683
6,401
5,525
8.9
7.1
1.7
1.4
   Teeraina
978
1,087
1,155
109
68
11.1
6.3
2.1
1.2
   Tabuaeran
1,615
1,757
2,539
142
782
8.8
44.5
1.7
7.4
   Kiritimati
3,225
3,431
5,115
206
1,684
6.4
49.1
1.2
8.0
   Kanton
83
61
41
-22
-20
-26.5
-32.8
-6.2
-7.9
Line & Phoenix 
Group islands
5,901
6,336
8,850
435
2,514
7.4
39.7
1.4
6.7
Rural
49,308
47,777
52,222
-1,531
4,445
-3.1
9.3
-0.6
1.8
Urban
28,350
36,717
40,311
8,367
3,594
29.5
9.8
5.2
1.9
TOTAL
77,658
84,494
92,533
6,836
8,039
8.8
9.5
1.7
1.8
Island/region
Census total population
Population change
(in numbers)
(in %)
annual growth rate
 
Rural: Outer islands = All islands except South Tarawa;  
Urban: South Tarawa 
 
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4
Figure 2: Annual population growth rate by island/region, Kiribati, 2000-2005 
K
a
nt
on
KI
RIBA
T
I
S
o
ut
h Ta
r
a
w
a
Nik
u
n
a
u
Ku
r
i
a
Aran
u
k
a
N
o
r
t
h Tar
a
w
a
Tot
al
 Li
ne&
P
ho
eni
x
 I
s
l
a
nd
s
Mak
i
n
Ta
buaer
a
n
K
i
r
i
ti
m
a
ti
Be
ru
Tam
a
na
Ma
ia
na
B
u
tar
i
tar
i
Ab
ai
an
g
On
ot
oa
Aro
r
a
e
Tee
r
ai
na
S
o
ut
h Ta
bi
te
uea
N
o
r
t
h Tab
i
t
e
u
e
a
Total
 G
i
l
b
er
Is
la
nds
Mar
a
kei
Ab
ema
m
a
Ba
n
a
b
a
R
u
r
a
l ar
e
a
s
N
ono
ut
i
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
ave
r
a
ge
 a
nnual
 gr
ow
th 
r
a
te 
(%
)
 
 
The proportion of the Kiribati population living in the Gilbert Group islands in 2005 was 
90%, and steadily decreased since 1985 when almost 96 per cent lived there. The 
proportion of the total Kiribati population living in the Line & Phoenix Group was almost 
10 per cent and has continuously increased since 1985 when only 4.2 per cent lived there. 
 
Almost 44 per cent of the population of Kiribati lived in South Tarawa in 2005. Its 
population increased from 25,380 in 1990, and 36,717 in 2000, to 40,311 in 2005. In 
terms of numbers, the increase on South Tarawa of 3,594 is by far the largest increase in 
the whole of Kiribati. The noted increase for Kiritimati island, for comparison purposes, 
is just 1,684.  
 
According to the 2005 census data, the average population density of the total population 
of Kiribati was 127 persons per square kilometer, representing an increase from 107 and 
116 in 1995 and 2000, respectively (Table 2). 
 
The population density varied widely by island (group). While there were almost 
300 people per km² in the Gilbert Group, only 20 people per km² inhabited the Line and 
Phoenix Islands. 
 
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5
Table 2: Population density (number of persons per sqkm) by island/region, 
Kiribati: 1995, 2000 and 2005 
Population density 
Island/region 
land area 
(sq.km) 
1995 2000 2005 
   Banaba 
6.29 
54 
44 
48 
   Makin 
7.89 
232 
214 
302 
   Butaritari 
13.49 
290 
257 
243 
   Marakei 
14.13 
193 
180 
194 
   Abaiang 
17.48 
344 
331 
315 
   North Tarawa 
15.26 
262 
293 
372 
   South Tarawa 
15.76 
1,799 
2,330 
2,558 
   Maiana 
16.72 
131 
122 
114 
   Abemama 
27.37 
126 
115 
124 
   Kuria 
15.48 
63 
62 
70 
   Aranuka 
11.61 
87 
83 
100 
   Nonouti 
19.85 
153 
160 
160 
   North Tabiteuea 
25.78 
131 
131 
140 
   South Tabiteuea 
11.85 
118 
103 
110 
   Beru 
17.65 
158 
155 
123 
   Nikunau 
19.08 
105 
91 
100 
   Onotoa 
15.62 
123 
107 
105 
   Tamana 
4.73 
250 
203 
185 
   Arorae 
9.48 
132 
129 
132 
Gilbert Group total 
285.52 
251 
274 
293 
 
  
 
 
 
   Teeraina 
9.55 
102 
114 
121 
   Tabuaeran 
33.73 
48 
52 
75 
   Kiritimati 
388.39 
13 
   Kanton 
9.15 
Line & Phoenix Group total 
440.82 
13 
14 
20 
  
  
  
  
  
Kiribati 
726.34 107 116 127 
* note: the stated total Kiribati area excludes 84.2 sqkm of uninhabited islands 
This discrepancy is explained by the very high density of South Tarawa of 2,558 
people/km² and on the other hand the very low density of the biggest of Kiribati’s islands: 
Kiritimati has only 13 people per km². 
 
2.2 Population composition 
 
The total enumerated population of 92,533 people included 92,013 indigenous people, 
and 520 non-indigenous people such as Tuvaluans, Fijian, Australian and New 
Zealanders, and other Pacific islanders (Figure 3). 
 
Of the enumerated population, 88,644 people lived in 13,999 private households, and 
3,889 people in 43 institutions such as prisons, hotels, hospitals, dormitories, and 
maneabas (meeting houses). 
 
 
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6
Figure 3: Population composition, Kiribati, 2005 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total number of households   14,042 
Total enumerated population  92,533 
Private households 
 13,999 
Total population 
 88,644 
Institutions 
 
        43 
Total population 
     3,889 
Indigenous 
population 
88,207 
Non-Indigenous
population 
437 
Indigenous 
population 
3,806 
Non-Indigenous
population 
83 
Indigenous population 
92,013 
Non-Indigenous population 
520 
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7
2.3 Population structure  
 
The enumerated 2005 population consisted of 45,612 males and 46,921 females, a 
surplus of 1,309 females, resulting in a sex ratio of 97, which means that there were 97 
males per 100 females. However, sex ratios varied widely by island/region (Figure 4).  
 
A sex ratio of 100 means that there were equal numbers of males and females. A sex ratio 
lower than 100 means that there were less males than females, and a sex ratio higher than 
100 means that there were more males than females. 
 
From figure 4 it becomes clear that there was a significant surplus of females in South 
Tarawa, and a noticeable surplus of males in the Line and Phoenix Islands.  
 
Figure 4: Sex ratio by island/region, Kiribati: 2005 
Ta
ma
na
Sou
t
h Ta
r
a
w
a
No
rth T
a
rawa
Ku
ri
a
Ber
u
No
rth T
a
bi
teuea
G
i
lbe
r
t
 Is
l.
Bu
tari
tar
i
Ma
ia
na
Ar
anu
k
a
Ab
ai
ang
Ar
orae
Ru
ral
 areas
M
a
ra
kei
Ab
em
am
a
Onot
oa
M
aki
n
T
a
bu
aeran
No
no
uti
Kan
t
on
Ni
ku
nau
S
o
uth
 T
a
bi
teuea
Lin
e
&
P
ho
e
n
i
x
 Is
l.
Ki
ri
tim
a
ti
T
eerai
n
a
Ban
a
ba
KI
RI
BA
T
I
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Nuim
ber
 of m
a
les per
 100 fem
a
les
background image
 
8
A population pyramid (Figure 5, 6 and 7) shows the number of males and females in 5-
year age groups, starting with the youngest age group at the bottom, and increasing with 
age towards the top of the pyramid. The number of males is depicted to the left and the 
number of females to the right side of the center of the pyramid.  
 
The shaded area shows the population count of the 2000 census, while the thickly 
outlined area shows the population count of the 2005 census. Note that the people 
counted in the 2000 census were 5 years older in the 2005 census, if they were present in 
Kiribati and enumerated during both censuses. 
 
Figure 5: Population pyramid, Kiribati: 2000 and 2005 
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
A
g
e
 gr
oup
Number of persons
Males
Females
Kiribati 2000 (shaded area) & 2005 (outlined)
 
 
A distinct feature of the Kiribati population pyramid is the indent of the 30–34 year age 
groups, meaning that these age groups are much smaller in number than the younger and 
older age groups. By comparing the 2005 population pyramid with pyramids of earlier 
censuses it can be seen that the older the census, the further this indent moves towards the 
younger ages. In the early 1970s, the Kiribati government launched a quite vigorous and 
seemingly successful family planning programme in Kiribati, which resulted in a 
relatively low number of births during those years and therefore small birth cohorts 
(Figure 11). The relatively small number of people who were born during the period 1970 
to 1975 was 30–34 years old in 2005. 
 
The narrowing of the population bar of the 0-4 year olds compared to the 5-9 year olds 
shows a smaller number of people aged 0-4 relative to the 5-9 year olds, the result of a 
renewed fertility decline (reduction of the number of annual births) during the period 
2000-2003  (Figure 11).  
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9
Figure 6: Population pyramid, South Tarawa: 2000 and 2005 
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Ag
e gr
ou
p
Number of persons
Males
Females
South Tarawa 2000 (shaded area) & 2005 (outlined)
 
 
The most obvious difference in shape between the South Tarawa population pyramid 
(Figure 6), and that of the Rural Areas (Figure 7), is the distinctly smaller proportion of 
people aged 20-29 years in the rural areas. This may be the result of migration of young 
people from the outer islands (rural areas) to South Tarawa and/or to overseas. 
 
Figure 7: Population pyramid, Rural areas (Outer Islands): 2000 and 2005 
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Ag
e grou
p
Number of persons
Males
Females
Rural areas 2000 (shaded area) & 2005 (outlined)
 
 
background image
 
10
Kiribati’s population has a young age structure with 37 per cent of Kiribati’s population 
younger than 15 years of age and only 5 per cent are older than 60 years (Table 3 and 
Figure 8). This also illustrated by the median age, which was 20.7 years (Table 3 and 
Figure 9). This means that half of Kiribati’s population was younger and the other half 
older than 20.7 years. 
 
Table 3: Distribution of the population by age, dependency ratio, median age, and 
sex ratio, Kiribati: 2000 and 2005 
Kiribati 
South Tarawa 
Rural areas 
Indicators 
2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005 
Proportion of population by broad age group 
(in %) 
 
  
  
  
 
 
   Age group  0-14 
40 
37 
38 
34 
41 
39 
 
 
 
Age 
group 
15-59 
55 58 57 61 53 55 
   Age group 60+ 
 
 
  
  
  
 
 
Age 
dependency 
ratio 
(15-59) 
83 74 74 64 90 82 
Median 
age 
(years) 
19.7 20.7 20.7 21.9 19.0 19.6 
Sex ratio (males per 100 females) 
97 
97 
94 
93 
99 
101 
 
 
Figure 8: Proportion of population by broad age groups by island/region, Kiribati: 
2005 
Tam
a
n
a
Be
ru
A
b
em
am
a
A
b
aiang
Aro
r
a
e
To
tal Gilb
er
t Islan
d
s
N
o
r
t
h Tar
a
w
a
Maian
a
Makin
N
onouti
K
i
r
i
tim
a
ti
N
o
r
t
h Tabi
te
uea
O
notoa
T
o
tal
 Li
ne&
P
hoeni
x I
s
l
a
nds
A
r
anuka
B
a
naba
Ku
ri
a
Tabuaer
an
Mar
akei
K
a
nton
B
u
tar
i
tar
i
S
outh Tabi
teuea
Teer
aina
N
i
kunau
KI
RI
BAT
I
Rural
 areas
S
o
u
t
h Ta
r
a
wa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
%
 0-14
15-59
60+
 
 
background image
 
11
There is, of course, a direct link between the size and proportion of young people (Figure 
8), and the median age (Figure 9). 
 
Compared to the 2000 census, the population has aged slightly, when the median age was 
only 19.7 years (Table 3). This was the result of a decreasing proportion of people aged 
0-14 years between 2000 and 2005 (due to a reduction in the average number of births 
per woman), and at the same time an increase of the proportion of people 15-59 years of 
age. 
 
Again, the age structure of the different island population varied widely: Butaritari, 
Tabuaeran, North Tabiteuea, Marakei, Teeraina, and Nikunau had a median age of less 
than 19 years. In contrast, South Tarawa had a median age of almost 22 years, and 
Kanton, Maiana, Arorae, and Tamana a median age of older than 23 years. 
 
Figure 9: Median age by island/region, Kiribati: 2005 
Butari
tari
Ta
bu
aeran
N
o
rt
h T
a
bit
e
ue
a
M
a
rakei
Te
erai
na
Ni
kun
a
u
Abai
an
g
N
o
no
ut
i
Abem
am
a
Rur
a
l
 area
s
Nor
t
h
 Taraw
a
L
i
ne
&
P
h
o
e
n
ix
 I
s
l.
So
ut
h
 T
a
bit
e
ue
a
Banaba
M
aki
n
Kur
i
a
Aran
uka
Ki
ri
ti
m
a
ti
G
ilb
e
r
t
 Is
l.
S
o
u
t
h Tar
a
wa
Beru
On
oto
a
Kanto
n
Ma
ia
n
a
Aro
r
ae
Tam
a
na
KI
RI
BAT
I
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
Median age (i
n year
s)
 
 
A common way to describe a population’s age structure is via the age dependency ratio, 
which describes the proportion of the economically-dependent component of a country’s 
population to its productive component. This is conventionally expressed as the ratio of 
the young (0–14) plus the old (60+), to the population in the working ages (15–59). 
 
Kiribati’s dependency ratio in 2005 was 74: this means that for every 100 persons in the 
working ages, there were 74 persons in the dependent ages (Table 3 and Figure 10). The 
higher the dependency ratio, the higher the number of people that need to be cared for by 
the working-age population and, it needs to be added, of this group only those who 
actually work and earn a living. The dependency ratio has decreased since the 2000 
census when it was 83. In 1995 it was 87. Based on the population structure (proportion 
background image
 
12
of people per age group, Figure 8) of the different island populations, the age dependency 
ratios of the different islands vary accordingly.  
 
The most favorable dependency ratio can be found in South Tarawa with only 64 
dependent persons per 100 persons in their working ages. The dependency ratios were 
generally higher in the rural areas. Especially South Tabiteuea and Nikunau showed very 
high age dependency ratios of more than 100, meaning that there were more young (0-14 
year) and old people (60 years and older), than persons aged 15-59 years. 
 
Figure 10: Age dependency ratio by island/region, Kiribati: 2005 
Sou
t
h Ta
r
a
w
a
Ab
em
am
a
Ab
ai
ang
No
rth T
a
rawa
G
i
lbe
r
t
 Is
l.
Ber
u
Ta
ma
na
M
aki
n
Ki
ri
tim
a
ti
No
no
uti
Lin
e
&
P
ho
e
n
i
x
 Is
l.
Ru
ral
 areas
Ban
a
ba
Ma
ia
na
No
rth T
a
bi
teuea
T
a
bu
aeran
Kan
t
on
Ar
anu
k
a
T
eerai
n
a
Ar
orae
Ku
ri
a
Onot
oa
Bu
tari
tar
i
M
a
ra
kei
S
o
uth
 T
a
bi
teuea
Ni
ku
nau
KI
RI
BATI
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Num
b
e
r
 of depende
nt per
s
ons (aged 0-14 plus 60
 year
s a
nd older
)
per
 100 pe
r
s
ons aged 15-59 year
s
 
 
 
background image
 
13
3 DEMOGRAPHIC COMPONENTS 
 
3.1 Fertility 
 
In order to determine the level and pattern of fertility in Kiribati, all women older than 15 
years of age were asked the following questions: 
 
-
 
How many children has this woman born alive? 
-
 
When was the last child born? 
 
The total number of children born alive to 30,253 women aged 15 years and older was 
77,920 (Table 4). The average number of children born alive to all women (average 
parity) was 2.6 children per woman. 
 
Table 4: Female population 15 years and older by number of children ever born 
alive, Kiribati: 2005 
Number of  
children ever born 
Average number of  
children ever born 
Age of 
women 
Number 
of 
women 
Males Females
Total  Males Females
Total 
15-19  5,282  214  176
390
0.04 0.03 0.07 
20-24  4,327 
1,415 1,337
2,752
0.33 0.31 0.64 
25-29  3,508 
2,805 2,730
5,535
0.80 0.78 1.58 
30-34  2,930 
3,937 3,841
7,778
1.34 1.31 2.65 
35-39  3,364 
6,165 5,884
12,049
1.83 1.75 3.58 
40-44  2,678 
5,575 5,434
11,009
2.08 2.03 4.11 
45-49  2,252 
5,249 4,873
10,122
2.33 2.16 4.49 
50-54  1,671 
3,837 3,563
7,400
2.30 2.13 4.43 
55-59  1,307 
3,092 2,962
6,054
2.37 2.27 4.63 
60-64 
938 
2,297 2,237
4,534
2.45 2.38 4.83 
65-69 
741 
1,956 1,877
3,833
2.64 2.53 5.17 
70-74 
683 
1,720 1,733
3,453
2.52 2.54 5.06 
75+ 
572 
1,523 1,488
3,011
2.66 2.60 5.26 
Total 30,253 
39,785 
38,135
77,920
1.32 1.26 2.58 
 
The average parity increases with the age of women. While the 15-19 year old women 
had on average only 0.07 children, women aged 45-49 had 4.5 children, and women older 
than 65 years of age had on average more than 5 children. The average parities of 
women older than 49 years is also called the ‘Completed Fertility Rate’, a cohort measure 
demonstrating how many children a certain cohort of women who completed their 
childbearing actually produced during those years. 
 
Based on the question on the date of birth of the last born child, the number of births per 
year/period can be calculated (Table 5). 
 
background image
 
14
Table 5: Reported number of births by age of women and year/period of birth of 
last born child, Kiribati: 2005 
before 
1990
1990-
1995
1996-
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
NS
15-19
5,282
0
0
11
7
13
31
104
153
8
20-24
4,327
0
10
129
75
170
255
494
573
23
25-29
3,508
4
54
438
231
289
346
556
505
20
30-34
2,930
26
146
639
221
249
308
416
399
24
35-39
3,364
107
339
934
208
309
295
404
313
26
40-44
2,678
242
474
929
149
151
138
179
102
30
45-49
2,252
497
629
702
69
51
26
24
18
24
50-54
1,671
712
539
218
6
3
3
1
1
19
55-59
1,307
899
221
46
0
0
0
0
0
20
60-64
938
744
66
0
0
0
0
0
0
24
65-69
741
646
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
22
70-74
683
565
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
24
75+
572
462
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23
Total
30,253
4,904
2,482
4,046
966
1,235
1,402
2,178
2,064
287
Number of births
Age group 
of women
Number of 
women
 
 
During the 2005 census enumeration, women reported that 2,397 children were born 
during the one-year period before the census, between November 2004 and November 
2005 (Table 6).  
 
Table 6: Reported number of children born during 12 months before the census by 
age group of mother, Kiribati: 2005 
Age group of women 
Number of women 
Number of births* 
15-19 
  5,282 
  162 
20-24 
  4,327 
  638 
25-29 
  3,508 
  600 
30-34 
  2,930 
  477 
35-39 
  3,364 
  369 
40-44 
  2,678 
  132 
45-49 
  2,252 
    19 
Total 24,341 2,397 
* Note: 195 not stated cases were distributed proportionately  
 
In order to estimate the level of fertility in Kiribati, this analysis relies on indirect 
estimation techniques, based on census data of the number of children ever born by age 
of women and the number of children born during the year before the census by age of 
women as reported in the census. The demographic indicator most commonly used to 
describe a country’s fertility situation is called the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). This 
measure is an indication of the average number of children a woman gives birth to during 
her reproductive life (15–49 years of age). It is calculated from the number of live births 
by age of women in a given year; the age specific fertility rates (ASFRs).  
background image
 
15
The estimates of the level of fertility are based on 2000 and 2005 census data, to which 
the Arriaga
1
 method was applied, which measures fertility based on data in two points in 
time. The software PAS of the US Bureau of Census, procedure ARFE-2, and 
MORTPAK 4.1, procedure FERTPF of the United Nations were used (Appendix 1 and 
2).  
 
The TFR for Kiribati has been estimated at about 3.5 in 2004-2005 which is a decline of 
about 1 child since 1995 when the average number of children born per woman was 
about 4.5. This fertility trend based on most recent and past census data, point to a 
significant fertility decline in Kiribati. 
 
Both above mentioned methods produce virtually identical results, which are also 
consistent with estimates derived by Mr. Michael Levin of the US Census Bureau using 
the own-children method (Figure 11). 
 
The own children method is a procedure for deriving age specific fertility rates for a ten 
or fifteen year period from a special census tabulation of children classified by age and 
age of mother, both ages being given in single years at the time of the census. Age of 
mother can be determined only for those children who are enumerated in the same 
household as their mother, i.e., who are “own children” of a woman present in some 
enumerated household, hence the name of the method.
 
                                                 
1
 Many censuses and surveys include questions related specifically to fertility, for 
example, the numbers of children women have had and whether they had a birth in the 
year preceding the inquiry. 
 
The method seeks to adjust the level of observed age-specific fertility rates, which are 
assumed to represent the true age pattern of fertility, to agree with the level of fertility 
indicated by the average parities (average number of children ever born) of women in age 
groups lower than 30 or 35, which are assumed to be accurate. During successful 
application of this method, the age pattern of the period fertility rates is combined with 
the level implied by the average parities of younger women to derive a set of fertility 
rates that is generally more reliable than either of its constituent parts.  
 
Responses to such questions can be used to estimate fertility indirectly. Some techniques 
to do this include the P/F (Parity/Fertility) ratio method developed by Brass, based on the 
average number of children ever born to women in 5-year age groups and women’s age 
pattern of fertility derived from births in the year preceding the census or survey; and the 
Arriaga technique, which is similar to the P/F ratio method but links data for more than 
one date. While the Brass P/F ratio method assumes constant fertility in the past, the 
Arriaga method does not. 
 
background image
 
16
Figure 11: Estimates of TFR based on ‘own-children method’, Kiribati: 1968-2005 
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
TF
R
 
(
a
v
e
r
a
ge
 nu
m
b
e
r
 
o
f
 c
h
i
l
d
r
e
n
 pe
r
 w
o
m
a
n
)
1968 census
1973 census
1978 census
1985 census
1990 census
1995 census
2000 census
2005 census
 
Source: unpublished data, Mr. Michael Levin, US Census Bureau 
 
Figure 12: Population size 10 years and younger by single years, and (approximate) year of 
birth, Kiribati: 2005 
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
10 (1995) 9 (1996)
8 (1997)
7 (1998)
6 (1999)
5 (2000)
4 (2001)
3 (2002)
2 (2003)
1 (2004) <1 (2005)
Age of persons (in brakets year of birth)
num
ber
 of per
s
ons
 
 
background image
 
17
By investigating the 2005 census population structure in more detail (Figure 12), it is 
interesting to see that there was a distinctive dent at ages 1-3. There were especially few 
2 year olds counted in the 2005 census. This was clearly caused by relatively low number 
of births during the 1-3 year period before the 2005 census, corresponding to the number 
of births/deliveries registered during the period 2002-2004 (Table 7). A particularly low 
number of births (deliveries) were registered in the year 2003, which corresponds to the 
low number of 2-year olds counted in the census. This ‘dip’ can also be clearly seen in 
Figure 11, the blue line that represents the ‘2005 census’ data. It shows a sharp decrease 
in the TFR from 1999 to 2003, before it increases in 2004 and 2005. The TFR in the year 
2003 is estimated at only 3.2, the lowest fertility rate for Kiribati recorded so far. 
 
Table 7: Number of reported deliveries, number of female family planning users, 
and estimated contraceptive prevalence rate, Kiribati: 2001-2005 
Year 
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 
Number 
of 
deliveries 
1,980 1,957 1,800 1,864 2,281 
Number 
of 
family 
planning 
users 3,694 4,479 4,526 4,525 4,078 
Contraceptive 
prevalence 
rate*  18.5 22.1 22.0 21.6 18.5 
Source: Ministry of Health, Government of Kiribati 
*incl. male sterilization 
 
The number of births (deliveries) seems to correlate with the number of family planning 
users (Figure 13).  
 
Figure 13: Reported number of deliveries and number of females of childbearing 
age using family planning, Kiribati: 2001-2005 
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Year
Number of deliveries
Number of FP users
 
Source: Ministry of Health, Government of Kiribati 
background image
 
18
 
The period 2002-2004 was characterized by a relatively high percentage of family 
planning users among women of childbearing age. The contraceptive prevalence rate was 
about 22 per cent among this group, while it was below 20 per cent before and after 
2002-2004: the higher the number of family planning users, the lower the number of 
births. 
 
The decrease of the level of fertility (TFR) during the 10 year period 1995-2005 can also 
be depicted by the age group of women, and the age specific fertility rates (ASFR). 
Figure 14 shows the number of births per 1000 women by age group. While the level of 
fertility declined at all age groups of women between 1995 and 2005, the most prominent 
decline occurred at age group 25-29 years. Nevertheless, women aged 25-29 continue to 
be the most fertile age group in 2005, although fertility levels of women aged 20-24 and 
30-34 years are not much lower.  
 
Fertility levels of the 45-49 year age group were very low, followed by women aged 15-
19 years, and women aged 40-44 years. 
 
Teenage women aged 15-19 gave birth to an estimated 206 children during the one-year 
period before the 2005 census (Table 8) which translates into a teenage fertility rate of 39 
(39 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years). 
 
Figure 14: Age specific fertility rates (ASFR), Kiribati: 1995-2005 
0
50
100
150
200
250
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
Age group of women
ASF
R
 
(
n
u
m
b
e
r
 o
f
 
b
i
r
t
h
s
 p
e
r
 1
000 w
o
men
)
2005
2000
1995
 
ASFR: number of births per 1000 women by age group 
 
The number of births by age of women, and therefore the total number of births during 
the one-year period before the 2005 census, can be calculated by multiplying the 
background image
 
19
estimated ASFR by the enumerated number of women by age group in the census, and 
summing the number of births by age group of women.  
 
The crude birth rate (CBR) can then be calculated by dividing the estimated number of 
births (2,462) by the total 2005 census population (92,533), multiplied by 1000: 
 
 
CBR = 2,462/92,533 x 1000 = 26.6 (there were 26.6 births per 1000 population) 
 
 
Table 8: Estimated and adjusted Age Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR), Total Fertility 
Rate (TFR), Crude Birth Rate (CBR), and Mean Age at Childbearing (MAC), 
Kiribati: 2005 
Age group 
of women 
Number 
of women 
Estimated 
ASFR 
Estimated number of births = 
(Estimated ASFR x Number of women) 
15-19 
5,282 
0.039 
  208 
20-24 
4,327 
0.158 
  685 
25-29 
3,508 
0.174 
  610 
30-34 
2,930 
0.161 
  472 
35-39 
3,364 
0.106 
  355 
40-44 
2,678 
0.044 
  118 
45-49 
2,252 
0.006 
    14 
Total 24,341   
2,462 
TFR  
3.44 children per woman 
CBR 
 
26.6 births per 1000 population 
MAC  
 
29.6 years 
 
 
 
An estimate of the accuracy and consistency of the census reporting, and also an 
indication of a plausible estimate of the level of fertility can be obtained by comparing 
the estimated number of births that occurred during the year before the census with the 
number of enumerated children aged younger than 1 year of age (because they were born 
during the 1-year period before the census):  
 
The census enumerated 2,403 children aged less than 1 year of age. This figure is 
consistent with the reported number of births (2,397) during the year before the census 
based on information provided by interviewed women aged 15-49. It is furthermore 
consistent with the adjusted estimated number of births of 2,462 during the year before 
the census, especially considering that some of the children born during the year before 
the census have died before the census enumeration (number of infant deaths). Therefore 
it can be expected that the enumerated number of children aged younger than 1 year are 
slightly less than the actual number of births during the year before the census. 
 
background image
 
20
3.2 Mortality 
 
The questions that related to mortality in the 2005 census were:  
 
-
 
How many live births a woman has ever had, and how many of those born were 
still alive and/or have died; 
-
 
Whether a respondents father and/or mother was still alive (orphanhood); 
-
 
Whether a respondent’s marital status was ‘widowed’ (widowhood). 
 
From all children that were ever born to women 15 years and older (77,920), 88.8 per 
cent (69,166) were still alive, and 8,754 children have died (Table 9).  
 
The proportion of surviving females was higher than that of males (Table 10). While 90.0 
per cent of all female children ever born where still alive, only 87.6 per cent of all male 
children have survived.  
 
The proportion of surviving children decreases with the age of women (Table 10 and 
Figure 15). While 95.6 per cent of all children were still alive that were ever born to 
women 15-19, only 89.1 per cent of children born to women aged 45-49 were still alive, 
and only 74.3 per cent of children born to women aged 75 years and older. 
 
This general trend has to be explained by the fact that with increasing age of mothers also 
increases the age of her children, and with increasing age increases the proportion of a 
birth cohort that have died. 
 
Table 9: Female population 15 years and older by number of children ever born, 
number of children still alive, and number of children dead, Kiribati: 2005 
Males Females
Total
Males Females
Total
Males Females
Total
15-19
5,282
214
176
390
199
174
373
15
2
17
20-24
4,327
1,415
1,337
2,752
1,332
1,264
2,596
83
73
156
25-29
3,508
2,805
2,730
5,535
2,640
2,605
5,245
165
125
290
30-34
2,930
3,937
3,841
7,778
3,653
3,625
7,278
284
216
500
35-39
3,364
6,165
5,884
12,049
5,670
5,490
11,160
495
394
889
40-44
2,678
5,575
5,434
11,009
5,046
4,961
10,007
529
473
1,002
45-49
2,252
5,249
4,873
10,122
4,619
4,398
9,017
630
475
1,105
50-54
1,671
3,837
3,563
7,400
3,352
3,157
6,509
485
406
891
55-59
1,307
3,092
2,962
6,054
2,549
2,586
5,135
543
376
919
60-64
938
2,297
2,237
4,534
1,855
1,912
3,767
442
325
767
65-69
741
1,956
1,877
3,833
1,531
1,569
3,100
425
308
733
70-74
683
1,720
1,733
3,453
1,296
1,445
2,741
424
288
712
75+
572
1,523
1,488
3,011
1,096
1,142
2,238
427
346
773
Total
30,253
39,785
38,135
77,920
34,838
34,328
69,166
4,947
3,807
8,754
Number of children dead
Number of children          
ever born
Number of children          
still alive
Age of 
women
Number 
of women
 
 
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21
Table 10: Female population 15 years and older by proportion of children ever born 
still alive, and proportion now dead, Kiribati: 2005 
Males Females
Total
Males Females
Total
15-19
5,282
93.0
98.9
95.6
7.0
1.1
4.4
20-24
4,327
94.1
94.5
94.3
5.9
5.5
5.7
25-29
3,508
94.1
95.4
94.8
5.9
4.6
5.2
30-34
2,930
92.8
94.4
93.6
7.2
5.6
6.4
35-39
3,364
92.0
93.3
92.6
8.0
6.7
7.4
40-44
2,678
90.5
91.3
90.9
9.5
8.7
9.1
45-49
2,252
88.0
90.3
89.1
12.0
9.7
10.9
50-54
1,671
87.4
88.6
88.0
12.6
11.4
12.0
55-59
1,307
82.4
87.3
84.8
17.6
12.7
15.2
60-64
938
80.8
85.5
83.1
19.2
14.5
16.9
65-69
741
78.3
83.6
80.9
21.7
16.4
19.1
70-74
683
75.3
83.4
79.4
24.7
16.6
20.6
75+
572
72.0
76.7
74.3
28.0
23.3
25.7
Total
30,253
87.6
90.0
88.8
12.4
10.0
11.2
Age of 
women
Number 
of women
Proportion of children ever 
born still alive (%)
Proportion of children ever 
born now dead (%)
 
 
 
Figure 15: Proportion of children ever born still alive by age of mother, Kiribati: 
2005 
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Age group of mother
Male
Female
Total
 
 
Because the registration of vital events in Kiribati is incomplete, especially events related 
to deaths, estimates of the level of mortality have to rely on indirect estimation 
techniques.  
 
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22
Using above census data on children ever born and children surviving by age group of 
mother, the following mortality indices have been obtained using the United Nations 
software package MORTPAK4.1, procedures CEBCS (Table 11 and Appendix 3 and 4).  
 
Table 11: Mortality indicators, Kiribati: 2005 
Indicator Total 
Males 
Females
Infant mortality rate (IMR) 
52 
53 
51 
Child mortality rate (4q1) 
17.5 
18.0 
17.0 
Under 5 mortality (q5) 
69 
71 
67 
Life expectancy at birth, E(0) 
61.0 
58.9 
63.1 
Crude death rate (CDR) 
8.7 
9.2 
8.3 
 
The infant mortality rate (IMR) was estimated at 53 and 51 for males and females, 
respectively which is a decrease compared to 1995 indicators when the IMR was 67 and 
56 for males and females. The IMR measures the number of deaths of children under one 
year of age per 1000 live births.  
 
Child mortality, the probability of dying between age 1 and age 5, was estimated at 18 
male deaths and 17 female deaths per 1000 persons of that age. These indicators were 28 
and 21 in 1995 for males and females respectively. 
 
Under 5 mortality is the probability of dying between birth and age 5, and was estimated 
at 71 and 67 per 1000 for males and females. 
 
Based on the calculated childhood mortality rates (Appendices 4 and 5), a life table was 
constructed using MORTPAK4.1, procedures MATCH, with the assumption made that 
the Far East Asian pattern of the United Nations model life tables resembles most closely 
the empirical mortality pattern of Kiribati. The empirical mortality pattern was calculated 
by using the number of registered deaths by age and sex of the years 2000-2005 to 
calculate age-specific death rates using the 2000 and 2005 census population by age and 
sex as denominator. The empirical mortality pattern was compared to the different Coale-
Demeny and United Nations model life tables using MORTPAK4.1, procedure 
COMPAR. The assumption was made that the under-registration of deaths is not age 
specific and therefore does not affect the overall pattern of mortality. 
 
According to the assumptions made, and the procedures and methods used, life 
expectancy at birth
 is calculated at 58.9 and 63.1 years for males and females (Table 12 
and 13).  
 
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23
Table 12: Abridged Life Table based on estimated infant mortality rate -q(0), and 
using MOTPAK4.1, procedure MATCH, Kiribati Males: 2005 
Age m(x,n)  q(x,n) 
l(x)
d(x,n)
L(x,n)
S(x,n)
T(x)  e(x) 
0 0.0554 0.0530  100,000
5,300
95,733
0.9407
5,887,145 
58.9 
1 0.0045 0.0177 94,700
1,676
374,600
0.9855
5,791,412 61.2 
5 0.0014 0.0069 93,024
644
463,511
0.9935
5,416,813 58.2 
10 0.0012 0.0061 92,380
567
460,484
0.9924
4,953,301 53.6 
15 0.0020 0.0098 91,813
897
456,979
0.9880
4,492,817 48.9 
20 0.0029 0.0143 90,916
1,296
451,477
0.9845
4,035,838 44.4 
25 0.0033 0.0165 89,620
1,482
444,491
0.9819
3,584,361 40.0 
30 0.0040 0.0199 88,138
1,758
436,466
0.9768
3,139,871 35.6 
35 0.0055 0.0272 86,381
2,349
426,349
0.9669
2,703,404 31.3 
40 0.0081 0.0400 84,032
3,359
412,245
0.9518
2,277,055 27.1 
45 0.0119 0.0579 80,673
4,673
392,375
0.9274
1,864,810 23.1 
50 0.0187 0.0895 76,000
6,799
363,887
0.8937
1,472,435 19.4 
55 0.0268 0.1260 69,201
8,719
325,203
0.8439
1,108,548 16.0 
60 0.0423 0.1917 60,482
11,595
274,434
0.7719
783,346 13.0 
65 0.0622 0.2694 48,887
13,171
211,830
0.6880
508,911 10.4 
70 0.0885 0.3613 35,716
12,904
145,742
0.5933
297,081 8.3 
75 0.1216 0.4611 22,812
10,518
86,462
0.4910
151,339 6.6 
80 0.1650 0.5699 12,294
7,006
42,454
0.3456
64,877 5.3 
85 
0.2358           ... 
5,288
5,288
22,423
         ... 
22,423 
4.2 
Note: q(0) is an approximation of the infant mortality rate as calculated in Appendix 4 and Table 11 
 
Table 12: Abridged Life Table based on estimated infant mortality rate - q(0, and 
using MOTPAK4.1, procedure MATCH, Kiribati Females: 2005 
Age m(x,n)  q(x,n) 
l(x)
d(x,n)
L(x,n)
S(x,n)
T(x)  e(x) 
0 0.0532 0.0510  100,000
5,100
95,935
0.9426
6,307,686 
63.1 
1 0.0044 0.0175 94,900
1,662
375,347
0.9866
6,211,750 65.5 
5 0.0011 0.0053 93,238
493
464,957
0.9953
5,836,404 62.6 
10 0.0008 0.0041 92,745
384
462,764
0.9942
5,371,446 57.9 
15 0.0017 0.0083 92,361
763
460,057
0.9900
4,908,683 53.1 
20 0.0023 0.0116 91,598
1,061
455,465
0.9867
4,448,625 48.6 
25 0.0030 0.0149 90,537
1,353
449,419
0.9836
3,993,160 44.1 
30 0.0036 0.0179 89,184
1,596
442,063
0.9797
3,543,741 39.7 
35 0.0047 0.0230 87,588
2,017
433,099
0.9737
3,101,678 35.4 
40 0.0061 0.0302 85,571
2,586
421,688
0.9642
2,668,579 31.2 
45 0.0086 0.0423 82,985
3,512
406,602
0.9491
2,246,892 27.1 
50 0.0125 0.0608 79,473
4,831
385,920
0.9265
1,840,290 23.2 
55 0.0184 0.0881 74,642
6,574
357,573
0.8941
1,454,370 19.5 
60 0.0270 0.1266 68,068
8,618
319,701
0.8479
1,096,797 16.1 
65 0.0399 0.1818 59,450
10,808
271,084
0.7838
777,096 13.1 
70 0.0587 0.2564 48,642
12,473
212,477
0.7008
506,012 10.4 
75 0.0853 0.3513 36,169
12,707
148,909
0.5891
293,535 8.1 
80 0.1294 0.4840 23,461
11,356
87,727
0.3934
144,626 6.2 
85 
0.2128           ... 
12,106
12,106
56,899
         ... 
56,899 
4.7 
Note: q(0) is an approximation of the infant mortality rate as calculated in Appendix 5 and Table 11 
 
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24
 
 
Brief explanation of a life table (Table 12 and 13): 
 
 
A life table is used to simulate the lifetime mortality experience of a population. It does 
so by taking that population’s age-specific death rates and applying them to a 
hypothetical population of 100,000 people born at the same time. For each year on the 
life table, death inevitably thins the hypothetical population’s ranks until, in the bottom 
row of statistics, even the oldest people die. 
 
Column “nMx” shows the proportion of each age group dying in each age interval. These 
data are based on the observed mortality experience of a population. Column “lx” shows 
the number of people alive at the beginning of each age interval, starting with 100,000 at 
birth. Column “nDx” shows the number who would die within each age interval. Column 
“nLx” shows the total number of person-years that would be lived within each age 
interval. Column “Tx” shows the total number of years of life to be shared by the 
population in the age interval and in all subsequent intervals. This measure takes into 
account the frequency of deaths that will occur in this and all subsequent intervals. As 
age increases and the population shrinks, the total person-years that the survivors have to 
live necessarily diminish. 
 
Life expectancy is shown in Column “e(x)” — the average number of years remaining for 
a person at a given age interval.  
 
The first value in column “e(x)” represents life expectancy at birth. 
The first value in column “q(x)” is an approximation of the infant mortality rate (IMR). 
The second value in column “q(x)” is an approximation of the child mortality rate. 
 
m(x,n)  = age specific death rate 
q(m,n)  = the probability of dying between two exact ages 
l(x) 
= the number of survivors at exact age x 
d(x,n)  = the number of deaths between two exact ages, x and x+n 
L(x,n)  = the number of person-years that would be lived within the indicated age interval 
               (x and x+n) by the cohort of 100,000 births assumed. 
S(x,n)  = probability of surviving between two exact ages, x and x+n 
T(x)  = total number of person-years that would be lived after the beginning of the 
               indicated age interval by the cohort of 100,000 births assumed. 
e(x)   = expectation of life from age x 
 
 
 
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25
The above mortality indicators clearly show more positive mortality indicators for 
females than for males, with females living a longer life, on average 4 years longer than 
males. 
 
The findings are supported by the following data: 
 
-
 
more females than males survive to older ages (Figure 5); 
-
 
the proportion of widowed females was considerably higher than males (Figure 
20), indicating earlier death of male spouses; 
-
 
the proportion of respondent’s surviving mothers was higher than that of their 
fathers (Figure 16), indicating earlier death of respondent’s fathers than mothers. 
 
Figure 16: Proportion of population 15 years and older with father/mother still 
alive, Kiribati: 2005 
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
0-4
5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
Age group
P
r
opor
tion of r
espondents father
/
m
other
 
still alive
Father
Mother
 
 
 
The crude death rate (CDR) can then be calculated by multiplying the age specific death 
rates [m(x,n)-values] of the male and female life table (Tables 12 and 13) by the 2005 
census male and female population (Appendix 5):  
 
 
CDR = 806/92,533 x 1000 = 8.7 (there were 8.7 deaths per 1000 population) 
 
 
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26
Maternal mortality 
 
Although maternal deaths are normally not derived from census data, it is mentioned in 
this report because it is an important Millennium Development Goal (MDG) indicator 
(Goal 5, Target 6, and Indicator 16).  
 
The Kiribati Ministry of Health collects and reports the number of deliveries, and the 
number of deaths by age and sex and cause of death. Such data include deaths that were 
due to pregnancy or delivery.  
 
Maternal mortality is defined as the number of women who die as a result of childbearing 
in a given year per 100,000 births in that year. Maternal deaths are those that are caused 
by complications of pregnancy and childbirth. 
 
 
The maternal mortality rate is calculated as: 
 
[(Number of maternal deaths) / (Number of births)] * 100,000 
 
12/7,601 x 100,000 = 158 
 
 
 
Based on the Kiribati hospital records, the average maternal mortality rate of the 4-year 
period 2001-2004 was 158, which means that there were 158 maternal deaths per 100,000 
births (Table 14) 
 
Table14: Reported number of deliveries, number of deaths due to pregnancy or 
delivery, and maternal mortality rate, Kiribati: 2001-2004 
Year 2001
2002
2003 
2004 
Total
Number of deliveries 
1,980 1,957 1,800  1,864  7,601
Number of deaths due to pregnancy or delivery 
3
2
12
Maternal mortality rate 
152
102
167 
215
158
Source: Ministry of Health, Government of Kiribati 
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27
3.3 Migration 
 
3.3.1 Internal migration 
 
Internal migration, the movement of people from one island/region of Kiribati to another, 
can be estimated by  
 
 
comparing the different 2000-2005 intercensal growth rates per island or regions,  
 
comparing the number of people born on certain islands and who actually live 
there, and/or by  
 
comparing the place of residence five years ago with the place of residence during 
the census enumeration. 
 
Based on the question about where one lived five years before the census (year 2000), 72 
per cent of the total population 5 year and older answered that they had not moved from 
their current (November 2005) place (island) of residence; 26 per cent (16,255 persons) 
said that they lived elsewhere in Kiribati, and 1,870 persons (2 per cent) said that they 
had their usual place of residence overseas (Table 15). 
 
Table 15: Population by place of enumeration and usual residence five years ago (in 
2000), Kiribati: 2005 
Place of enumeration at 
time of census 
Usual residential address 5 years ago 
Island/Region Total 
South 
Tarawa 
Gilbert Islands 
(excl. South 
Tarawa) 
Line & 
Phoenix 
Islands Overseas 
Not 
born NS* 
South Tarawa  
40,311  27,325
6,166
878
1,170 
4,618 154
Gilbert Islands 
(excl. S.Tarawa)  43,372 
6,526
30,605
421
574 
5187
59
Line & Phoenix 
Islands 8,850 
1,373
891
5,085
126 
1196 179
Kiribati  
92,533  35,224
37,662
6,384
1,870  11,001 476
*NS includes 'other Kiribati' 
 
South Tarawa had a net loss of people to the Gilbert Group islands of 360 people (6,166 – 
6,526), and to the Line & Phoenix Group islands of 495 people (878 – 1,373) during the 
five years before the census. The Gilbert Group had a net loss to the Line & Phoenix 
Group islands of 470 people (421 – 891). 
 
Therefore the Line & Phoenix Group islands had a net gain from the Gilbert Group 
islands and South Tarawa of almost 1,000 people (965) during the intercensal period 
2000-2005 (Table 16). 
 
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28
Table 16: Interregional migration during 5 years before the 2005 census, Kiribati: 
2005 
Island & Region 
In-Migrants Out-Migrants Net Migrants
South Tarawa 
7,044 7,899  -855 
Gilbert Islands (excl. South Tarawa) 
6,947 7,057  -110 
Line&Phoenix Islands 
2,264 1,299  965 
Kiribati 
16,255 16,255 
  
 
Place of birth (Lifetime migration) 
 
Data on lifetime migration (number of persons by place of residence and place of birth) 
indicate that the direction of internal migration flows was mainly towards South Tarawa. 
 
Fifty-four per cent of the Kiribati population was living at the same place where they 
were born; 43 per cent (31,170 persons) were born in Kiribati but not at their current 
(November 2005) place of residence, and almost 3 per cent (2,487) of the population was 
born overseas (Table 17).  
 
Table 17: Population by place of enumeration and place of birth, Kiribati: 2005 
Place of enumeration at time 
of census 
Place of birth 
Island/Region Total 
South 
Tarawa 
Gilbert Islands 
(excl. 
South Tarawa) 
Line & 
Phoenix 
Islands 
Overseas NS 
South Tarawa 
40,311
19,646
18,284
771 
1,467 143
Gilbert Islands (excl. 
South Tarawa) 
43,372
6,512
35,587
419 812
42
Line&Phoenix Isl. 
8,850
1,394
3,790
3,427 
208
31
Kiribati 92,533
27,552
57,661
4,617 
2,487 216
 
Less than one third (27,552) of the population were born in South Tarawa, 62 per cent in 
other Gilbert Group islands (57,661), and 5 per cent (4,617) in the Line & Phoenix Group 
islands. 
 
Overall less than half (49 per cent) of the South Tarawa residents were born in South 
Tarawa, 45 per cent were born in other Gilbert Group islands, 2 per cent in the Line & 
Phoenix Group islands, and almost 4 per cent were born overseas. 
 
About 82 per cent of the residents of the Gilbert Group outer were born there, while only 
39 per cent of the residents of the Line & Phoenix Group islands were born at their 
current place of residence. 
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29
Based on the above data, it can be seen that South Tarawa had a net gain of 11,149 
people, mainly from the Gilbert Group Islands, and the Line & Phoenix Group Islands 
also had a net gain of almost 4,000 people, also mainly from the Gilbert Group Islands 
(Table 18). 
 
The Gilbert Group islands showed an overall net-loss of more than 15,000 people. 
 
Table 18: Interregional lifetime migration, Kiribati: 2005 
Island & Region 
In-Migrants Out-Migrants Net Migrants
South Tarawa 
19,055
7,906 11,149
Gilbert Islands (excl. South Tarawa) 
6,931
22,074 -15,143
Line&Phoenix Islands 
5,184
1,190 3,994
Kiribati 
31,170
31,170 0
  
 
 
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30 
 
K
 
anton
Kiritim ati
Tabuaeran
Teeraina
Abem am a
Ono
 
t
 
o
 
a
 
Nikunau
Be
 
r
 
u
 
S. Tabiteuea
N. Tabiteuea
Nonouti
Aranuka
Kuria
Maiana
S. Tarawa
N
 
.
 
Tarawa
A
 
b
 
a
 
iang
Marakei
B
 
u
 
t
 
a
 
r
 
i
 
tari
B
 
a
 
n
 
a
 
b
 
a
 
Arorae
Tam a
 
n
 
a
 
Makin
Net Internal Migration between 2000 and 2005
G
 
ilbe
 
r
 
t
 
I
 
slands
 
Phoenix
 
I
 
slands
LineIslands
Map created by Phil Bright with d ata sourced from 2005 Kiribati National
 
C
 
ensus of
 
Popul ation and Housing
N
50 km
500
 
k
 
m
 
G
 
ilbe
 
r
 
t
 
I
 
slands
 
P
 
hoenix
 
I
 
slands
 
Line
 
I
 
slands
 
Net Migration
by Island
 More than 500
 
 100 to   499
- 99 to   99
- 499 to - 100
   Less than - 500
 
Map 1: 
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31
3.3.2 International migration 
 
International migration refers to people who cross national boundaries to move to another 
country. Apart from this spatial consideration, time plays a major role in the analysis of 
migration. Persons are usually regarded as migrants only after spending a minimum 
period of time in their country of destination. Usually the minimum time required to 
qualify as migrant is half a year presence in-country, and sometimes even a full year. 
Someone coming for a short visit is not a migrant—he or she is a visitor or tourist. 
  
Intent is also of crucial importance, as migration usually involves a change of a person’s 
permanent residential address in pursuit of employment or educational opportunities.  
 
The need to consider ‘time and intent’ highlights one of the key problems concerning 
migration. Whether or not a particular person qualifies as a migrant can only be 
established after a certain period of time, usual at least a half-year period, in order to 
establish whether the arriving and departing persons qualify as visitors or migrants.  
 
The net impact of migration flows (net migration) is measured as the difference between 
the number of arrivals (immigrants) and departures (emigrants) during a certain period of 
time. 
 
Net migration = Arrivals (immigrants) minus Departures (emigrants) 
 
Therefore if net migration is positive it means that the number of arrivals (immigrants) 
was higher than the number of departures (emigrants); if net migration was negative, the 
number of departures (emigrants) was higher than the number of arrivals. 
 
Unfortunately data on arrivals and departures provided by the Ministry of Foreign 
Affairs, Immigration
, remains incomplete. The collection of arrival cards is incomplete 
and makes it currently impossible to obtain an accurate picture of the magnitude of 
migration flows to and from Kiribati based on immigration statistics. 
 
However, the 2005 census included 3 questions that provide an indication of the level of 
immigration. It asked questions about: 
 
1.
 
respondents ‘home island’ 
2.
 
respondents place of birth 
3.
 
respondents residence at time of last census (in year 2000) 
 
Question 1 refers to the island where a respondents family (ancestors) own land. 
Therefore only I-Kiribati can have a ‘home island’. Out of 92,533 enumerated persons, 
918 (1 per cent) responded that their ‘home island’ was overseas. 
 
On the question on respondent’s place of birth, 2.7 per cent (2,487 persons) answered that 
they were born overseas (Table 17). Of those, 1,116 were born in Nauru. 
 
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32
On the question where a respondent’s residential address was 5 years ago, 1,870 persons 
(2.3 per cent) of the population 5 years and older answered that they lived overseas 
(Table 15). 
 
However, question 1-3 only gives an indication of long term immigration.  
 
The only reliable method to derive at a crude indication of the level of net migration in 
Kiribati is by applying the balancing equation to the intercensal 2000-2005 population 
growth rate: 
 
 
Balancing equation
 
Population growth = CBR minus CDR plus Net migration rate 
 
Therefore the net migration rate can be estimated: 
 
Net migration rate = Population growth minus CBR plus CDR 
 
Note:   CBR = crude birth rate 
CDR = crude death rate  
 
The population of Kiribati increased from 84,494 to 92,533 people between 2000 and 
2005. This is an annual average growth rate of 1.82 per cent. 
 
In section 3.1 and 3.2 the CBR and CDR were estimated at 26.6 and 8.7 respectively. 
 
According to the balancing equation the net migration rate can be calculated as follows: 
 
Net migration rate = 18.2 – 26.6 + 8.7 = 0.3 (‰).  
 
A net migration rate of 0.3 (‰) is negligible. This, however, does not mean that there 
was no population movement as census data on people’s residential status 5 years before 
the census show. As mentioned before, the net migration rate is composed of arrivals and 
departures, and in this case the number of arrivals and departures was of roughly equal 
size. 
 
For example, several hundred I-Kiribati repatriated from Nauru back to Kiribati during 
the last several years following the deterioration of Nauru’s phosphate driven economy.  
 
At the same time several hundred I-Kiribati left the country for New Zealand during the 
period 2000-2005, for the purpose of establishing permanent residence there. I-Kiribati 
are currently eligible for migration to New Zealand. Under the so-called Pacific Access 
Category
75 persons per year are allowed to migrate to New Zealand, irrespective of 
socio-economic background. Through a ballot people are drawn to be eligible for status 
of Permanent Resident. This scheme has been in existence since 2002, and according to 
background image
 
33
the New Zealand High Commission in South Tarawa, it is very popular amongst I-
Kiribati, and is fully utilized. A study of the New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
and Immigration
 web site (http://www.immigration.govt.nz/) reveals that the immigration 
numbers of I-Kiribati people to New Zealand were in excess of 100 persons per year in 
recent years. 
 
Another destination country for I-Kiribati migrants is Fiji (although exact numbers are 
not available). 
 
Since the repatriation of I-Kiribati from Nauru to Kiribati was completed in 2006, and 
migration towards New Zealand continues, net migration can now be expected to be 
negative: there will be more departures than arrivals in Kiribati since a steady flow of 
migration seems to have established, at least towards New Zealand. 
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34
4 SOCIAL CHARACTERISTICS  
 
4.1 Marital status 
 
During the 2005 census, 47 per cent of males (13,122) and 48 per cent of females 
(14,533) 15 years and older were legally married, and another 3,773 and 4,166 males and 
females were living in a defacto union/marriage (Figure 17). Thirty-six per cent of males 
(10,036) and 26 per cent of females (7,796) were never married (single). Widowed were 
2 per cent and 8 per cent of males (502) and females (2,511) respectively.  
 
The higher number of married females than males has to be explained by the fact that 
about 1,000 men where working overseas as seafarers at the time of the census. 
 
Figure 17: Population 15 years and older by marital status, Kiribati: 2005 
10,036
502
263
371
2,511
605
626
13,122
3,773
7,796
14,533
4,166
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Never Married
Married (legally)
Married (defacto)
Widowed
Divorced
Separated
Marital status
N
u
mber
 of per
s
ons
Male
Female
 
 
Women marry at younger ages than men. The average age at marriage was 24.6 and 22.2 
years for males and females respectively, calculated based on the proportion never 
married/single by age (The singulate mean age at marriage, SMAM
2
). The higher 
proportion of young married women compared to men of the same age is a further 
indication that women generally marry at younger ages than men (Figure 18).  
 
While only 37 per cent of males were married (legally and de facto) at age 20-24 years, it 
was 53 per cent of females. While only 68 per cent of males were married at age 25-29 
years, it was 76 per cent of females.  
 
                                                 
2
 Manual X, Indirect techniques for demographic estimation, United Nations, New York, 1983 
background image
 
35
Figure 18: Population 15 years and older by sex and proportion married, Kiribati: 
2005 
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age group
P
r
opor
ti
on m
a
r
r
i
e
d
Male (legal)
Female (legal)
Male (legal + de facto)
Female (legal + de facto)
 
 
Figure 19: Population 15 years and older by sex and proportion never married 
(single), Kiribati: 2005 
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
15-19
20-24
25-29 30-34
35-39 40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64 65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age group
%
Male
Female
background image
 
36
The same pattern can be seen by looking at the population never married (single) (Figure 
19). A higher proportion of the male population was never married (single) at almost all 
age groups, especially at ages 20-29. 
 
Widowhood - at ages 40 years and older, the discrepancy between the proportion of 
widowed males and females increases continuously (Figure 20). At age 55-59 years only 
5 per cent of males were widowed, compared to 21 per cent of females. At age 75 years 
and older, only 22 per cent of males were widowed, compared to 54 per cent of females.  
 
The higher proportion of widowed females has to be explained by  
 
1.
 
lower mortality rates of females, and therefore longer life expectancies of female 
spouses,  
2.
 
older age at marriage of males compared to their female partners. 
 
Therefore male spouses usually die before their female partners. 
 
Figure 20: Population 15 years and older by sex and proportion widowed, Kiribati: 
2005 
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Age group
P
r
opor
ti
on w
i
dow
ed
Male
Female
 
 
 
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37
 
4.2 Religion 
 
With 55 per cent or 51,144 persons affiliated to the Roman Catholic Church (RC), it 
remains the dominant religious denomination of the population. The next largest group 
was the Kiribati Protestant Church with 33,044 member or 36 per cent of all 
denominations, followed by the Mormons with 2,910 members or 3 per cent. The only 
other religion with more than 2,000 members was the Bahai (2,034). All other religions 
had less than 2 per cent of the population as members (Figure 21).  
 
Only 23 persons said that they did not belong to any religious group. 
 
 
Figure 21: Population by religion, Kiribati: 2006 
 
0
1
1.9
2.2
3.1
55
36
KPC
RC
SDA
Bahai
COG
Mormon
Other
 
Note:    KPC  
= Kiribati Protestant Church 
 
RC 
= Roman Catholic 
 
SDA 
= Seventh Day Adventist 
COG 
= Church of God 
 
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38
4.3 Health 
 
Following requests from the Ministry of Health, the 2005 census questionnaire included 
several questions on smoking and drinking alcohol practices of the population aged 10 
years and older. The term regular refers to persons that smoke and/or drink alcohol daily. 
 
As is shown below, the proportion of males smoking tobacco and drinking alcohol is 
higher than females at any age (Figure 22, 23 and 24).  
 
4.3.1 Smoking tobacco 
 
According to information collected almost 70 per cent of the young adult male population 
aged 30-54 said that they are regular smokers. This compares to less than 50 per cent of 
the adult female population. The highest proportion of female smokers was 40-64 years 
of age, with a peak at ages 50-54(Figure 22). 
 
The proportion of teenage (15-19 years of age) male and female smokers was 32 and 8 
per cent respectively. In general, the proportion of smokers continuously decreases after 
the age of 54. 
 
In addition to the regular smokers, another 5 per cent of males and females claimed to be 
‘casual’ smokers at any age. 
 
Figure 22: Proportion of population 10 years and older that regularly smokes 
tobacco, Kiribati: 2005 
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
Age group
Regular
 sm
oker
s (%
)
Male
Female
Total
 
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39
4.3.2 Drinking alcohol 
 
According to the 2005 census data less than 15 per cent of males and less than 2 per cent 
of females drank alcohol regularly. Between 10-15 per cent of all males aged 20-54 years 
claim to drink alcohol regularly. The highest proportion of regular drinkers was aged 20-
29 years of age (Figure 23). 
 
However, a considerably higher proportion claimed to drink alcohol sometimes (Figure 
24). More than 40 per cent of males aged 20-34 drank alcohol sometimes. The proportion 
of teenage (15-19 years of age) male and female ‘occasional drinkers’ was 26 and 3 per 
cent respectively. 
 
In general the proportion of drinkers continuously decreases after the age of 29. 
 
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40
Figure 23: Proportion of population 10 years and older that regularly drinks 
alcohol, Kiribati: 2005 
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
Age group
R
e
gul
ar
 dr
i
n
ker
s of al
cohol
 (%
)
Male
Female
Total
 
 
Figure 24: Proportion of population 10 years and older that occasionally drinks 
alcohol, Kiribati: 2005 
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
Age group
C
asual
 
dr
i
n
ker
s
 of al
cohol
 (%
)
Male
Female
Total
 
 
 
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41
4.4 Educational characteristics 
 
4.4.1 School enrolment 
 
Education in Kiribati is free and compulsory from age 6 to 15 years. This has ensured 
access to primary and secondary levels of education for all.  
 
At the 2005 census, 28,467 persons 5 years and older were enrolled in school, 14,157 
males and 14,310 females. 
 
Based on the question of whether a person was currently attending school, 91 per cent of 
the 6-15 year olds responded yes (Figure 25). However, enrollment rates started to 
decline drastically from the age of 13, when more and more students dropped out of 
school. Almost a quarter of the 15 year olds were not attending school, and only half of 
the 18 year old population. 
 
Figure 25: Population 5 years and older by sex and attending school, Kiribati: 2005 
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25+
Age
% attend
i
ng schoo
l
Male
Female
Total
 
 
In general, school enrollment rates of females were higher than that of males. 
 
4.4.2 Educational attainment 
 
Although there was little difference between the proportion of males and females that 
have attended and/or completed the different educational levels, educational attainment 
numbers were slightly higher for males than for females at the secondary and tertiary 
levels.  
 
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42
The proportion of females with no schooling was higher than for males with no schooling 
(Figure 26). 
 
Primary education included all persons that attended classes 1-9, while secondary 
education included all persons that attended forms 1-7. 
 
In comparison to 1995 data (Figure 27), the level of education of Kiribati’s population 
has hugely increased. While only 27.1 and 20.6 per cent of males and females had 
secondary or higher education in 1995, this percentage has increased to 51.6 and 49.5 for 
males and females in 2005. Furthermore the gap in educational attainment levels in favor 
of males in 1995 has narrowed in 2005. 
 
Figure 26: Population 15 years and older by sex and educational attainment (in 
percent), Kiribati: 2005 
7.4
3.7
1.0
9.1
40.6
2.2
0.8
47.9
40.0
47.3
0.0
15.0
30.0
45.0
60.0
75.0
No school
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
NS
Educational attainment
%
Males
Females
 
Note:   ‘Primary’ incl. classes 1-9, ‘Secondary’ incl. Form 1-7 
 
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43
Figure 27: Population 15 years and older by sex and educational attainment (in 
percent), Kiribati: 1995 
6.2
66.7
27.1
9.3
20.6
70.1
0.0
15.0
30.0
45.0
60.0
75.0
No school
Primary
Secondary or higher
Educational attainment
%
Males
Females
 
 
3.7.3 Educational qualification 
 
The proportion of the population with secondary or tertiary qualifications was 18.2 per 
cent of males and 20.5 per cent of females (Table 19). While considerable more females 
than males have secondary qualifications, more males have tertiary qualifications. 
 
Table 19: Population by secondary or tertiary qualification, Kiribati: 2005 
Total Male
Female
Total
Male 
Female 
Qualification 
(numbers) (percentage) 
No secondary or 
tertiary 74,595 
37,292
37,303
80.6
81.8 
79.5 
Form 4 
4,487 
2,168
2,319
4.8
4.8 
4.9 
Form 5 
7,588 
3,395
4,193
8.2
7.4 
8.9 
Form 6 
3,081 
1,238
1,843
3.3
2.7 
3.9 
Form 7 
1,077 
490
587
1.2
1.1 
1.3 
Certificate 1,006 
604
402
1.1
1.3 
0.9 
Diploma 311 
187
124
0.3
0.4 
0.3 
Degree 290 
161
129
0.3
0.4 
0.3 
Masters 89 
70
19
0.1
0.2 
0.0 
PhD 9 
7
2
0.0
0.0 
0.0 
Total qualification 
17,938 
8,320
9,618
19.4
18.2 
20.5 
Total population 
92,533 45,612
46,921
100.0
100.0  100.0 
 
Therefore it seems that many females decided not to pursue further education after 
completing secondary education. At this point it needs to be mentioned that many if not 
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44
most persons that pursue tertiary education were absent at the time of the census to attend 
tertiary schooling overseas, and are therefore not included in the census data. 
 
 
4.5 Labor market activity 
 
4.5.1 Introduction 
 
In Kiribati, the 2006 Census included a Type of Activity sector on the questionnaire. In 
the manual, enumerators were instructed to ask the question, “What work did this person 
do last week?’
 to each respondent 15 years of age and over. Working was defined as 
being any activity concerned with providing the necessities of life.  Furthermore, it did 
not matter whether the person had a job or was paid for what they did. Based upon these 
criteria, respondents were coded on the questionnaire into the three mutually exclusive 
categories of “cash work”, “village work” or “no work”. 
 
A person who is employed or works mainly for cash is a cash worker.  Persons doing 
village work are those performing a variety of tasks involved in growing or gathering 
produce or fishing to feed their families and are described as subsistence farmers or 
fishermen.  The majority of these persons resides in rural areas or outer islands and 
includes those who sell the products for immediate consumption money.    
 
The UN publication “Principles & Recommendations for Population and Housing 
Censuses, Revision 2”
 recommends that “persons engaged in economic activities in the 
form of own-account production of goods for own final use within the same household 
should be considered to be self-employed.
”  Certainly, those selling their products should 
also be classified as employed. According to this definition, all those persons classified as 
village workers are considered to be employed. However, the following analysis of 
Kiribati’s unemployment level also provides an alternative approach to include village 
workers as part of the unemployed on the grounds that these persons would look for work 
if they believed cash work was available in their labour market community. 
 
The no work concept applies to those persons who did nothing in the reference week to 
provide for themselves or their families or household.  This includes home dutiestoo old
disabled, students, unemployed and inactive.  The enumerators are instructed to ensure 
that those classified as unemployed both did no work last week but spent some time 
looking for cash employment.  If the persons did not work and did not spend some time 
looking, they are then classified as inactive. Individuals can also be coded as mental
patient, or prisoner.  Persons coded as “mental” may be institutionalized or reside in the 
household. 
 
In the Pacific region, there has been some considerable discussion about how individuals 
working in subsistence activities should be classified in the labor market.  Based on the 
above, data collected from the Kiribati census have been assigned to the three categories 
of employed, (cash work and village work), unemployed or not in the labor force (those 
not employed or unemployed).  Optional definitions of unemployment rates putting the 
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45
village workers in the unemployed and not in the labor force categories are also provided 
below. 
 
4.5.2 Employed - cash workers and village workers 
 
As indicated in the introduction above, those persons who are defined as being employed 
(34,715) include 13,133 (37.8 per cent) cash workers and 21,582 (62.2 per cent) village 
workers (Appendix 6).   
 
The total employment level of 34,715 consisted of 18,883 (54.4 per cent) males and 
15,832 (45.6 per cent) females, and 13,340 (38.4 per cent) in the urban area and 21,375 
(54.4 per cent) in the rural areas (Figure 28 and 29).   
 
By age group, the 34,715 total number of persons employed included 7,644 in the 15-24 
year old age group, 21,467 in the 25-49 year old age group, and 5,604 in the 50 years of 
age and over age group (Figure 30). 
 
Figure 28: Population 15 years and older by sex and labor market activity, Kiribati: 
2005 
8,095
793
5,284
311
398
1,179
1,996
3,496
1,130
10,788
2,048
1,666
3,827
1,124
10,794
5,038
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
Cash work
Village Work
Un-employed
Student
Home duties
Inactive
Retired
Disabled/sick
N
u
mb
e
r
 of
 p
e
r
s
on
s
Males
Females
 
 
The total number of cash workers was 13,133 of which 8,095 or 61.6 per cent were males 
and 5,038 or 38.4 per cent were females. In the case of village workers, there were about 
equal numbers of male and female workers.  
 
From an urban/rural perspective, 8,068 (61.4 per cent) of the cash workers were in the 
urban area while only 5,065 (38.4 per cent) held cash paying jobs in the rural areas. On 
the contrary, in the case of village workers, only 5,272 (24.4 per cent) were in the urban 
area with 16,310 (75.6 per cent) in the rural areas.   
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46
Figure 29: Population 15 years and older by urban-rural residence and labor 
market activity, Kiribati: 2005 
8,068
1,632
2,442
382
16,310
622
327
1,787
2,929
3,677
5,272
1,220
3,646
5,065
1,440
3,148
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Cash work
Village Work
Un-employed
Student
Home duties
Inactive
Retired
Disabled/sick
Nu
mb
er o
f
 p
e
r
s
o
n
s
Urban
Rural
 
 
Figure 30: Employed population 15 years and older by age and sex, Kiribati: 2005 
5,031 4,927
4,190
5,009
4,023
3,318
2,141
1,523
917
542
315
105
45
16
2,613
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age group
Numb
er of persons
Total
Males
Femals
 
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47
4.5.3 Labour force participation rate and Employment-population ratio 
 
The labour force participation rate is the number of persons in the labour force at a given 
age and sex and/or place of rural-urban residence, divided by the corresponding total 
population with the same characteristics, multiplied by 100. 
 
The employment-population ratio is the number of employed persons in cash work at a 
given age and sex and/or place of rural-urban residence, divided by the corresponding 
total population with the same characteristics, multiplied by 100.  
 
Table 20 provides an overview of the labour force participation rate and the 
employment-population ratio
 for the total population 15 years and older by sex and by 
urban-rural residence. Figure 31 and 32 present the same indicators by age and sex. 
 
The labour force participation rates were higher for males than females, and also higher 
for the rural than the urban population. In contrast, the employment-population ratio was 
higher for the urban population. 
 
Table 20: Population 15 years and older by sex, rural-urban residence, labour force 
participation rate, and employment-population ratio, Kiribati: 2005 
 
Labour force participation rate 
Employment-Population ratio 
Kiribati 
 
 
   Total 
63.6 
22.6 
   Males 
71.5 
28.9 
   Females 
56.3 
16.7 
Urban 
 
 
   Total 
56.8 
30.6 
   Males 
63.7 
39.1 
   Females 
50.7 
23.1 
Rural 
 
 
   Total 
69.2 
15.9 
   Males 
77.6 
20.8 
   Females 
61.1 
11.2 
 
The labour force participation rate and the employment-population ratio were higher for 
males than females at all ages (Figure 31 and 32). The participation rate for females did 
not exceed 70 per cent at any age, while that of males was 90 per cent at ages 35-49. 
While almost half of males aged 35-49 were employed as cash workers, this was less than 
one quarter of females at the same age. The highest percentage of female employed cash 
workers was with 30 per cent at age 25-29 years. 
 
Another general pattern was the very low participation rates at ages 15-19 years, and the 
sudden decrease at age 50 which may be explained by the retirement age for public 
servants. 
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48
Figure 31: Population 15 years and older by age and sex and labour force 
participation rate, Kiribati: 2005 
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+
age group
per
c
ent i
n
 l
a
bour
 
for
c
e
Total
Males
Females
 
 
Figure 32: Population 15 years and older by age and sex and employment-
population ratio, Kiribati: 2005 
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+
age group
per
cent e
m
ployed i
n
 cash wor
k
Total
Males
Females
background image
 
49
4.5.4 Employed cash workers by work status 
 
More than 90 per cent of the 13,133 employed cash workers in 2005 were employees: 
7,467 males and 4,670 females (Figure 33). 
 
There were only 246 employers, which is 2 per cent of the total number of employed cash 
workers. Another 734 persons were self employed. 
 
At any category of work status, there were considerable more male than female employed 
cash workers in 2005. 
 
Figure 33: Employed cash workers by work status and sex, Kiribati: 2005 
164
453
11
82
4,670
281
5
7,467
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Employer
Employee
Self-Employed
NS
work status
N
u
m
b
er
 o
f
 per
s
ons
Males
Females
 
 
 
4.5.5 Employed cash workers by industry group 
 
By far, the majority of employed cash workers in Kiribati are employed in the Public 
Administration sector – 6,953 persons or 52.9 per cent of the total employed (Figure 34).   
 
The only other three industry groups that have a significant proportion of the employed 
persons are: Transport/Communication – 1,473 (11.2 per cent); Retail Trade – 1,179 (9.0 
per cent); and Agriculture/fishing – 936 (7.1 per cent). The employment levels in the 
remaining industry groups all represent less than 4 per cent of the total. 
 
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50
Figure 34: Employed cash workers by industry, Kiribati: 2005  
699
162
243
477
343
600
113
1,034
181
283
237
143
50
34
128
110
175
3,960
2,993
150
439
579
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Agriculture/Fisheries
Manufacturing
Electricity
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail Trade
Hotels/Motels
Transport/Communication
Financial Services
Public Administration
NS
Industry
Number of persons
Male
Female
 
 
4.5.6 Employed cash workers by occupational group 
 
The largest number of employed cash workers are found in the Professional occupational 
group – 2,506 (19.1 per cent), followed closely by those in the Service Workers Group – 
2,276 (17.3 per cent) and the Clerks group – 1,829 (13.9 per cent) (Figure 35).  
 
The least prominent occupational groups are the Legislators and Senior Officials – 667 
(5.1 per cent) and Agricultural and Fisheries workers – 839 (6.4 per cent).  
 
The number of employed in the remaining occupational groups is as follows: Plant and 
Machine Operators – 1,462 (11.1 per cent); Elementary Occupations – 794 (6.0 per cent); 
Technicians and Associate Professionals – 1,201 (9.1 per cent); and Trade Workers – 
1,039 (7.9 per cent). 
 
Female employees dominated the occupational groups Professionals and Clerks. All 
other occupational groups were dominated by male employees. 
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51
Figure 35: Employed cash workers by occupation, Kiribati: 2005  
485
1,119
679
717
1,236
632
737
1,402
738
350
182
1,387
522
1,112
207
302
60
56
1,040
170
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Legislators & Officials
Professionals
Technicians
Clerks
Service Workers
Agriculture/Fisheries
Trade Workers
Plant/Machine operators
Elementary Occupations
NS
Occ
u
pation
Number of persons
Male
Female
 
 
 
4.5.7 Unemployed 
 
The number of persons 15 years of age and over who did no work and did not spend 
some time looking for cash work was 2,254 during reference week. This level of 
unemployment represents 6.1 per cent of the total labour force.  
 
The level of unemployment for males was 1,130 (5.6 per cent) and 1,124 (6.6 per cent) 
for females.  
 
In the urban areas, the unemployment level was recorded as 1,632 (10.9 per cent) 
compared with 622 (2.8 per cent) in the rural areas.    
 
By age group, the 2,254 unemployed persons included 1,307 in the 15-24 year old age 
group, 839 in the 25-49 year old age group, and 108 in the 50 years of age and over age 
group (Figure 36). 
Some users have indicated that they wish to include village workers as part of the 
unemployed, on the grounds that these persons would look for work if they believed cash 
work was available in their labour market community. Using this analysis, the total 
unemployment level, including village workers becomes 23,836 or an unemployment rate 
of 64.5 per cent (Table 21). 
 
 
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52
Figure 36: Unemployment rate by age and sex, Kiribati: 2005  
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60+
Age group
une
mploy
m
e
n
t ra
te
 (%)
Males
Females
 
 
For males, the level is 11,918 (59.6 per cent) and 11,918 (70.3 per cent) for females. 
Interestingly, the level for males and females is exactly the same.  
 
For the urban/rural distinction, the level is 6,904 (46.1 per cent) for the urban and 16,932 
(77.0 per cent) in the rural areas. 
 
Table 21: Population 15 years and older and unemployment status according to 
various unemployment concepts, Kiribati: 2005 
Number of unemployed 
Unemployment rate 
Unemployment concept 
Males Females  Total  Males  Females  Total
only reported unemployed 
1,130
1,124
2,254
5.6 
6.6
6.1
‘village work’ classified as 
unemployed 
11,918
11,918 23,836
59.6 70.3
64.5
excluding ‘village work’ from 
labor force 
1,130
1,124
2,254
12.2 
18.2
14.6
 
Other users prefer to have the village workers included in the not in the labour force 
category. Using this analysis, the unemployment rates for the discussed groups becomes 
as follows:  
 
Kiribati  
– 14.6 per cent;  
Urban   
– 16.8 per cent;  
Rural    
– 10.9 per cent;  
Males   
– 12.2 per cent; 
Females  
– 18.2 per cent.  
background image
 
53
4.5.8 Not in the Labour Force 
 
The total number of persons classified as not in the labor force in the 2005 Kiribati 
census was 21,069 (Appendix 6, and Figures 28 and 29). The distribution of these 
individuals was as follows:  
 
Students  
– 7,323  
(34.8 per cent);  
Home duties   – 6,077  
(28.8 per cent);  
Inactive  
– 3,662  
(17.4 per cent);  
Retired (‘old’) – 3,227  
(15.3 per cent);  
Disabled/sick  –    709 
(  3.4 per cent);  
Prisoners 
–      71  
(  0.3 per cent). 
 
More than 60 per cent of the population 15 years and older that was not in the labor force 
were women (13,143), and only 7,926 were males. 
 
There were more female (3,827) than male (3,496) students, and 87 per cent of those 
engaged in ‘home duties’ were females (5,284). 
 
In addition, more females (2,048) than males (1,179) were retired (‘old’)
 
On the other hand, there was a higher proportion of males ‘inactive’, ‘disabled and/or 
sick
’, and in prison. 
 
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54
5 HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS 
 
5.1 Household size 
 
The number of private households increased by 1,388 from 12,611 in 2000 to 13,999 in 
2005 (Table 22).  
 
Table 22: Number of private households, number of occupants, and average 
household size by island/region, Kiribati: 2000 and 2005 
Number of 
private 
households 
Number of persons in 
private households 
Average household size 
(number of persons per 
household) 
Island/Region 
2000
2005
2000
2005
2000 2005 
Banaba 54
61
262
301
4.9 
4.9 
Makin 292
328
1,679
1,858
5.8 
5.7 
Butaritari 592
561
3,464
3,279
5.9 
5.8 
Marakei 429
437
2,523
2,664
5.9 
6.1 
Abaiang 843
853
5,093
5,008
6.0 
5.9 
North Tarawa 
693
867
4,294
5,404
6.2 
6.2 
South Tarawa 
4,530
5,245
35,499
39,186
7.8 
7.5 
Maiana 376
354
2,048
1,894
5.4 
5.4 
Abemama 533
592
2,753
3,059
5.2 
5.2 
Kuria 182
202
958
1,082
5.3 
5.4 
Aranuka 194
211
963
1,158
5.0 
5.5 
Nonouti 508
540
2,850
3,068
5.6 
5.7 
North Tabiteuea 
600
573
3,214
3,332
5.4 
5.8 
South Tabiteuea 
230
262
1,207
1,298
5.2 
5.0 
Beru 492
462
2,419
2,022
4.9 
4.4 
Nikunau 333
335
1,733
1,912
5.2 
5.7 
Onotoa 354
332
1,668
1,644
4.7 
5.0 
Tamana 214
196
962
875
4.5 
4.5 
Arorae 244
241
1,225
1,250
5.0 
5.2 
Teeraina 169
198
1,003
1,155
5.9 
5.8 
Tabuaeran 282
438
1,591
2,470
5.6 
5.6 
Kiritimati 458
702
3,386
4,684
7.4 
6.7 
Kanton 9
9
61
41
6.8 
4.6 
Total 12,611
13,999
80,855
88,644
6.4 
6.3 
Rural 8,081
8,754
45,356
49,458
5.6 
5.6 
Line&Phoenix Islands 
918
1,347
6,041
8,350
6.6 
6.2 
Gilbert Islands 
11,693
12,652
74,814
80,294
6.4 
6.3 
 
In addition, there were 43 non-private dwellings (institutions) such as accommodation for 
short-term visitors, institutions such as hospitals, hostels, prisons, dormitories and 
maneabas (meeting houses). 
 
The number of households increased substantially in North and South Tarawa, and in 
Tabuaeran and Kiritimati. However, there were islands where the total number of 
households decreased such as in Butaritari, Maiana, North Tabiteuea, Beru, Onotoa, 
Tamana, and Arorae. 
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55
 
Although overall the average household size decreased slightly from 6.4 to 6.3 persons 
per household between 2000 and 2005, it increased in several islands, most notably in 
Aranuka, North Tabiteuea, and Nikunau. 
 
On the other hand, there was a substantial decease in average household size in South 
Tarawa, Beru, and Kiritimati. 
 
In general the average household size of 5.6 persons per household was much lower in 
the rural areas than the 7.5 persons per household in South Tarawa (Figure 37). 
 
Figure 37: Average household size (number of persons per household) by 
island/region, Kiribati: 2005 
Tamana, 4.5
Kanton, 4.6
Banaba, 4.9
Onotoa, 5.0
South Tabiteuea, 5.0
Abemama, 5.2
Arorae, 5.2
Maiana, 5.4
Kuria, 5.4
Aranuka, 5.5
Tabuaeran, 5.6
Rural, 5.6
M
akin, 5.7
Nonouti, 5.7
Nikunau, 5.7
North Tabit
e
u
e
a
,
 5.8
Teeraina, 5.8
Buta
rita
ri, 5
.
8
Abaiang, 5.9
Marakei, 6.1
Line&Phoenix Islands, 6.2
North Tarawa, 6.2
Gilbert Islands, 6.3
Kiritima
ti, 6
.
7
South Tarawa, 7.5
KIRIBATI, 6
.
3
Beru, 4.4
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Average number of persons per ho
usehold
 
 
The most common household size in 2005 was 4 and 5 persons per household, with 13.6 
and 13.5 per cent of all households falling into this category (Table 23 and Figure 38). 
However, most people (12.2 per cent) lived in households with 7 persons per household. 
 
More than 30 per cent of all people lived in households with 10 or more persons per 
household, and 8 per cent of the population lived in households with more than 15 
persons per household. On the other hand, less than 1 per cent of the population lived in 
one-person households. 
 
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56
Table 23: Number of private households by household size and persons per 
household, Kiribati: 2005 
Private households Persons per household size
Household size  Number %  number 
1 381 
2.7 
381 0.4 
2 882 
6.3 
1,764 
2.0 
3 1,509 
10.8 
4,527 5.1 
4 1,904 
13.6 
7,616 8.6 
5 1,895 
13.5 
9,475 
10.7 
6 1,710 
12.2 
10,260 
11.6 
7 1,550 
11.1 
10,850 
12.2 
8 1,297 
9.3 
10,376 
11.7 
9 733 
5.2 
6,597 
7.4 
10 647 
4.6 
6,470 
7.3 
11 392 
2.8 
4,312 
4.9 
12 301 
2.2 
3,612 
4.1 
13 205 
1.5 
2,665 
3.0 
14 182 
1.3 
2,548 
2.9 
15+ 411 
2.9 
7,191 8.1 
Total 13,999 
100.0 
88,644 100.0 
 
Figure 38: Distribution of households and population living in private households, 
by household size, Kiribati: 2005 
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15+
Household size
%
% of households
% of persons
 
background image
 
57
5.2 Household composition 
 
Data on household composition was established by identifying a head of household who 
serves as a reference person to whom all other persons in the household, in terms of 
family membership, are related (Table 24). 
 
The majority of all heads of households in Kiribati were 80 per cent men (11,243) and 20 
per cent (2,756) women.  
 
Sixty-two per cent of all household members were husband and wife and their children 
(the so-called nuclear family).  
 
More than 10 per cent were other children such as adopted children, grand children, or 
son/daughter in laws of the household head. Another 17 per cent of all household 
members were other relatives such as brothers and sisters, uncles and aunts, nephews, 
cousins, parents etc.  
 
Almost every 10
th
 person was a non-relative. 
 
Table 24: Population by household composition (relationship to head of household), 
Kiribati: 2005 
Total Male 
Female 
Total Male 
Female 
Relationship 
Total number 
Percentage 
Head 13,999
11,243
2,756
15.8
25.7 
6.1
Spouse 10,640
523
10,117
12.0
1.2 
22.5
Child 30,196
15,804
14,392
34.1
36.1 
32.1
Adopted Child 
1,561
811
750
1.8
1.9 
1.7
Son/daughter in Law 
1,531
608
923
1.7
1.4 
2.1
Grand Child 
6,325
3,297
3,028
7.1
7.5 
6.7
Parent 1,411
350
1,061
1.6
0.8 
2.4
Other relative 
14,929
7,450
7,479
16.8
17.0 
16.7
Non-relative 8,052
3,663
4,389
9.1
8.4 
9.8
Total 88,644
43,749
44,895
100.0
100.0 
100.0
 
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58
5.3 Household amenities and capital goods 
 
Please note that households were allowed to select several sources of drinking water, 
types of toilet facility (sanitation), and sources of lighting when asked by census 
interviewers which type was used and/or available to them. Therefore the total 
percentages of usage add up to more than 100 per cent. 
 
5.3.1 Private households by main source of drinking water, Kiribati, 2005 
 
The main source of drinking water in Kiribati was open well, with 70 per cent of all 
households obtaining their drinking water from that source (see Table H36 in Basic 
Tables-Volume I, and Map 2 for specific island data). 
 
The second most important source was piped water with 31 per cent. However, piped 
water was only used by a significant proportion of households in South Tarawa, and 
Kiritimati. Otherwise, a quarter of all households used rain water, and another 21 per 
cent obtained their drinking from closed wells
 
While households in South Tarawa relied mainly on piped water (67 per cent), in rural 
areas 79 per cent relied on open wells.  
 
5.3.2 Private households by type of toilet facility (sanitation) used, Kiribati, 2005 
 
The most frequently recorded toilet facility used by half of all Kiribati households was 
beach (lagoon side), followed by a third of households latrine, another 30 per cent used 
the sea (ocean side), and 27 per cent the bush
 
However, the types of toilet facilities varied widely by island and region (Map 3). While 
in the rural areas the beach was the most common facility, it was public or own flush 
toilet
, and latrine in South Tarawa. 
 
In many islands, the sea and bush was also an important place of sanitation. 
 
5.3.3 Private households by source of lighting, Kiribati, 2005 
 
The most common means of lighting in Kiribati was at 62 per cent of all households 
using a pressure lamp, followed by almost 40 per cent the public electric generator
However, the public generator was mainly used in South Tarawa and Kiritimati (Map 4). 
 
Other means of lighting were solar generator, at 20 per cent of all households and 
generator engine (11 per cent). The solar generators were mainly used in the rural areas, 
and little use was made of solar power in South Tarawa. 
 
background image
 
59
Rain
Pipe
Open Well
Closed Well
Shop Water
Households Using Each
Type of Water Source
50 km
Kanton
Kiritimati
Tabuaeran
Teeraina
Abemama
Onotoa
Nikunau
Beru
S. Tabiteuea
N. Tabiteuea
Nonouti
Aranuka
Kuria
Maiana
S. Tarawa
N. Tarawa
Abaiang
Marakei
Butaritari
Banaba
Arorae
Tamana
Makin
Percentage of Households Using Various Sources of Drinking Water in Kiribati, 2005,by Island
(% values are indicated for largest bar in each chart)
Gilbert Islands
Phoenix Islands
Line Islands
Map created by Phil Bright with data sourced from 2005 Kiribati National Census of Population and Housing
N
NOTE: Individual householdswere able to answer “yes” to more than one type of water source.
98
74
93
82
78
87
67
93
78
95
96
88
100
99
95
84
91
58
70
69
65
97
92
500 km
Gilbert Islands
Phoenix Islands
Line Islands
Map 2: 
background image
 
60
Public Flush
Own Flush
Latrine
A ttolette
Beach
Bush
Sea
Households Using Each
Type of Sanitation
50 km
Kanton
Kiritimati
Tabuaeran
Teeraina
Abemama
Onotoa
Nikunau
Beru
S. Tabiteuea
N. Tabiteuea
Nonouti
Aranuka
Kuria
Maiana
S. Tarawa
N. Tarawa
Abaiang
Marakei
Butaritari
Banaba
Arorae
Tamana
Makin
Percentage of Households Using Various Types of Sanitation in Kiribati, 2005,by Island
(% values are indicated for largest bar in each chart)
Gilbert Islands
Phoenix Islands
Line Islands
Map created by Phil Bright with data sourced from 2005 Kiribati National Census of Population and Housing
N
NOTE: Individual householdswere able to answer “yes” to more than one type of sanitation.
93
59
83
64
80
66
34
79
63
59
62
82
66
85
53
38
62
72
75
72
60
56
78
500 km
Gilbert Islands
Phoenix Islands
Line Islands
Map 3:  
background image
 
61
Solar Generator
Public Electric Generator
Pressure lamp
Generator Engine
Households Using Each Type
of Lighting Source
50 km
Kanton
Kiritimati
Tabuaeran
Teeraina
Abemama
Onotoa
Nikunau
Beru
S. Tabiteuea
N. Tabiteuea
Nonouti
Aranuka
Kuria
Maiana
S. Tarawa
N. Tarawa
Abaiang
Marakei
Butaritari
Banaba
Arorae
Tamana
Makin
Percentage of Households Using Various Sources of Lighting in Kiribati, 2005,by Island
(% values are indicated for largest bar in each chart)
Gilbert Islands
Phoenix Islands
Line Islands
Map created by Phil Bright with data sourced from 2005 Kiribati National Census of Population and Housing
N
NOTE: Individual householdswere able to answer “yes” to more than one type of lighting source.
90
86
96
74
80
55
88
98
88
77
86
82
67
95
74
80
87
83
92
85
62
87
91
500 km
Gilbert Islands
Phoenix Islands
Line Islands
Map 4: 
background image
 
62
5.3.4 Private households and availability of capital goods, Kiribati, 2005 
 
This section briefly summarizes the availability of a selection of food, communication, 
and transport equipment use (Figure 39) 
 
Every fifth household (20 per cent) owned a fridge. This percentage was 41 per cent in 
South Tarawa and only 8 per cent in the rural areas. 
 
Only 7 per cent of all households owned a car. This was 13 per cent in South Tarawa, 
and 3 per cent in the outer islands (rural areas). The proportion of households owning a 
bicycle was much higher in the rural areas than in South Tarawa. 
 
A  home phone was available to 57 per cent of all households; this was 67 per cent in 
South Tarawa and just over half of all households in the rural areas. 
 
Only every tenth (11 per cent) of all households owned a TV, being 20 per cent in South 
Tarawa and 5 per cent in the outer islands. 
 
More than 60 per cent of all households owned a radio
 
Figure 39: Proportion of private households and availability of capital goods, 
Kiribati: 2005 
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Fr
idge
Ca
r
Mo
to
rcy
cl
e
B
ic
yc
le
Ra
di
o
Co
mp
ut
er
In
ter
net
H
om
ep
hon
e
Mo
bi
le ph
on
e
TV
C
Rad
io
% of private househo
l
d
s
Kiribati
South Tarawa
Rural
 
background image
 
63
6 POPULATION PROJECTIONS  
 
Timely and accurate information about population trends is in high demand. Knowledge 
about the current size and structure of a country’s population is needed for the 
formulation and implementation of policies and programmes in almost all areas of public 
life. Because policies are aimed at achieving goals in the future, knowledge about future 
population trends is required. Activities in areas as diverse as health, environment, 
poverty reduction, social progress, and economic growth rely on comprehensive and 
consistent demographic information. 
 
The appropriate method to do this is to prepare estimates and projections of population 
size and structure by age and sex. 
 
The starting point for any projections is a reliable age-sex distribution of a population. 
Furthermore information on recent levels and patterns of fertility, mortality, and 
migration is needed. 
 
The cohort-component method was used to compute the population projections presented 
here. This procedure simulates population changes as a result of changes in the 
components of growth: fertility, mortality, and migration. Based on past information, 
assumptions are made about future trends in these components of change. The assumed 
rates are applied to the age and sex structure of the population, in a simulation that takes 
into account that people die according to their sex and age, that women have children, 
and some people change their residence. The cohort-component method of projecting a 
population follows each cohort of people of the same age and sex throughout their 
lifetime according to their exposure to fertility, mortality, and migration
3
  
The key to making meaningful projections lies in the choice of assumptions about future 
population developments. These assumptions concern possible future birth, death, and 
migration rates.  
 
6.1 Projection assumptions 
 
As a general guideline, when preparing multiple assumptions about future levels of 
fertility, mortality and/or migration, it is advisable to arrive at outcomes that are 
symmetric. This means that the level of the low and the high, or the fast and the slow 
growth assumptions, should be equally higher and lower positioned from the medium 
level assumption. 
 
The following demographic inputs were developed for the projections: 
 
Projection period:  
 
The population projections cover the 20-year period 2005-2025. 
                                                 
3
 Population Analysis with Microcomputers, Volume I, Presentation of Techniques, p.309/310, by Eduardo 
Earring, Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce, USA 
background image
 
64
 
Base Population: 
 
The projections are based on the 2005 Kiribati census age and sex distribution of the total 
enumerated population, adjusted to mid-year 2005.  
 
Fertility: 
 
The estimated TFR (Total fertility rate) of the period 2004-2005 and associated Age-
Specific-Fertility-Rates (ASFR), as described in section 3.1 (Table 8), are used as a 
starting point, with three different assumptions made about future fertility developments 
(Figure 40).  
 
It is assumed that the level of the future TFR of the Medium fertility assumption is 
reaching 1.9, which is the average level of TFR of the populations of present day 
Australia, France, New Zealand and United States (Appendix 7). This level will be 
reached (by means of linear extrapolation) with a pace of fertility decline that is based on 
the recent past fertility trend of Kiribati. According to this pace, Kiribati would reach a 
TFR of 1.9 in the year 2038. Since the population projections only include the period 
2005-2025, the level of fertility at the end of the projections period in 2025 will be 2.6 
(Figure 40). 
 
The reason for choosing the fertility level of countries such as Australia, France, New 
Zealand and the United States as future level for Kiribati is twofold: 
 
1)
 
They have completed the demographic transition (see explanatory note in 
glossary). Appendix 7 shows that the TFR of these 4 countries has remained 
almost constant at a level of 1.9 over the last 25 years (1980-2005). 
 
2)
 
They are regarded as the metropolitan focal points of the Pacific Island countries. 
 
Therefore the Medium fertility assumption is set as follows: 
 
Assumption 1 - Medium Fertility: Fertility decreases to 2.6 in the year 2025 (and 
further to 1.9 in 2038). However, the TFR is assumed to remain stable at 3.5 for the 
period 2005-2010, because a clear decreasing or increasing trend during the intercensal 
period 2000-2005 can not be established (Figure 11 and 40). 
 
The High and the Low fertility assumptions were built symmetrically around the Medium 
fertility assumption

 
Assumption 2 - High Fertility: The High fertility assumption is set to be by a TFR of 
0.5 higher than the medium fertility level. Therefore during the period 2005-2010 the 
TFR initially increases to a level of 4 before it decreases to 3.1 in 2025. 
 
background image
 
65
Assumption 3 - Low Fertility: The Low fertility assumption is set to be by a TFR of 0.5 
lower than the medium fertility level. Fertility decreases to 2.1 in the year 2025. 
 
Figure 40: Estimated past levels of fertility, and future fertility assumptions for 
projections, Kiribati: 1960-2025 
6.6
5.8
5.3
5.4
6.9
7.2
5.2
4.2
4.7
4.5
3.6
3.7
3.2
4.7
4.3
4.3
4.6
5.1
4.4
7.1
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.5
1.9
3.1
3.4
3.7
4.0
2.4
2.1
3.0
2.7
2.4
1.4
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Year
TFR 
(
average number of
 children
 
p
e
r woman)
Past
Medium
High
Low
 
Note: Fertility estimates of the years 1960 to 2005 were derived by using the own-children method,  
Mr. Michael Levin, US Census Bureau, Washington DC, USA 
 
background image
 
66
Mortality: 
 
It is thought that under normal circumstances (meaning the absence of catastrophes like 
wars, epidemics and major natural disasters) the health situation in Kiribati and mortality 
levels will continuously improve throughout the projection period. 
 
The estimated life expectancies at birth [E(0)] of 58.9
 
years and 63.1 years for males and 
females respectively, are used as the starting point for the projections in 2005. These 
estimates are based on the reported number of children ever born and the proportion of 
children still alive as reported in the 2005 census, as outlined in Section 3.2.  
 
Assumption
: The presented population projections assume a rising trend in life 
expectancy for males and females according to the United Nations working models, 
medium pace of mortality improvement, as described in World Population Prospects 
(United Nations, 1995, p.144). According to this model, current estimated life 
expectancies gradually increase and reach 67.0 and 72.0 years in 2025 for males and 
females respectively (Figure 41). 
 
Only one assumption regarding mortality is made. The reason for this is that variations in 
mortality levels (multiple assumptions) usually have only a minor impact on final 
projection results; they also would require the production of too many different scenarios 
that ultimately would only complicate the presentation of results.  
 
Figure 41: Estimated past levels of mortality, and future mortality assumptions for 
projections, Kiribati: 1995-2025 
55.2
57.0
58.9
61.3
62.2
63.1
61.3
63.5
65.4
67.0
65.5
67.8
69.9
72.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
Lif
e
 expect
ancy at
 birt
(
i
n years)
Males-past
Females-past
Males-future
Females-future
 
 
 
background image
 
67
Migration: 
 
Making meaningful assumptions about future migration developments provides the single 
greatest difficulty for undertaking population projections, as many of the social and 
economic parameters shaping migration patterns depend largely on countries’ overall 
social, economic and political developments, which can fluctuate widely and are hard to 
predict. It, furthermore, depends on economic and political developments overseas, in 
particular on decisions whether or not to provide working or residency visas, and/or 
establish immigration quotas for potential Kiribati (labour) migrants. 
 
The total number of migrants is expressed as net migration which is the difference 
between the number of arrivals (immigrants) and departures (emigrants) during a certain 
period of time. 
 
Net migration = Arrivals (immigrants) minus Departures (emigrants) 
 
Therefore if net migration is positive it means that the number of arrivals (immigrants) 
was higher than the number of departures (emigrants); if net migration is negative, the 
number of departures (emigrants) is higher than the number of arrivals. 
 
In section 3.3.2 the level of net migration for the intercensal period 2000-2005 was 
estimated to be negligible. However, I-Kiribati are currently eligible for migration to 
New Zealand under the so-called Pacific Access Category. 75 persons per year are 
allowed to migrate to New Zealand to establish permanent residence there. This scheme 
exists since 2002, and is fully utilized 
 
A study of the New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Immigration web site 
(
http://www.immigration.govt.nz/
) reveals that immigration numbers of I-Kiribati people 
were in excess of 100 persons per year to NZ in recent years. 
 
As several hundred I-Kiribati left the country for New Zealand between 2000-2005, it 
could be expected that net migration was calculated to be negative during the intercensal 
period. The fact that this is not the case has to be explained by the fact that during the 
same period several hundred I-Kiribati repatriated from Nauru back to Kiribati. 
 
However, repatriation of I-Kiribati from Nauru to Kiribati was completed in 2006, and 
net migration can be expected to be negative since then. Apart from New Zealand, 
another country of destination for I-Kiribati migrants is Fiji (although exact numbers are 
not available). 
 
In total three different migration assumptions were made, and the High and the Low 
(Zero) net migration assumption
 were built symmetrically around the Medium net 
migration assumption 
(Figure 42): 
 
background image
 
68
Assumption 1 - Medium net migration: net migration is assumed to be constant at -100 
persons per year for the period 2007-2025 (100 more persons depart from Kiribati than 
arrive in the country annually). 
 
Assumption 2 – High net migration: net migration is assumed to be constant at -200 
persons per year for the period 2007-2025 (200 more persons depart from Kiribati than 
arrive in the country annually). 
 
Assumption 3 - Zero net migration:
  net migration is assumed to be zero for the entire 
projections period (number of arrivals [immigrants] and departures [emigrants] are of 
equal size). 
 
Figure 42: Migration assumptions for population projections, Kiribati: 2005-2025 
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
Number of
 annual net
 migrant
s
 (
p
ersons)
estimated past level
Medium
High
Zero
 
 
With regard to the age and sex structure of migrants (Figure 43) it is assumed that there 
will be equal numbers of males as females, and the age structure resembles that of a 
family type migration pattern, which means that it is foremost young couples aged 20-29 
years who migrate, sometimes with their (young) children aged 0-4 years. The main 
reason for this particular age group is to seek further education and employment 
opportunities. 
 
background image
 
69
Figure 43: Assumed age distribution of net migrants (in per cent of total number of 
migrants) used for the population projections, Kiribati: 2005-2025 
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Ag
e
 g
r
o
u
p
per cent
Males
Females
 
 
 
background image
 
70
5.2 Projection results 
 
The combination of the above described 3 different fertility and 3 different migration 
assumptions (with one general mortality assumption) results in 9 different projections 
(Figure 44). These 9 different projections highlight the impact of different levels of 
fertility on the one hand and the impact of migration on the other. 
 
From Appendix 8 and Figure 44 it can be seen that the all scenarios result in an 
increasing population size in future. However, the higher the fertility level assumed, the 
higher is the population outcome, and the higher the number of annual net migrants (in 
negative terms), the lower will be the population size in future. 
 
It also can be seen that the impact of the different levels of migration have a relatively 
small impact on the population size compared to the impact that the fertility assumptions 
have.  
 
Figure 44: Past and future population trend according to 9 projection variants, 
Kiribati: 2005 - 2025 
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
Populat
i
on size (
i
n '000)
Past pop. size
Low fertility-Zero migration
Medium fertility-Zero migration
High fertility-Zero migration
Low fertility-Medium migration
Medium fertility-Medium migration
High fertility-Medium migration
Low fertility-High migration
Medium fertility-High migration
High fertility-High migration
 
 
Below only the 3 population projection scenarios (or variants) are described in detail that 
show the most extreme impact on the population size and structure in comparison to an 
intermediate (medium) outcome (Figure 45): 
 
1.
 
High population scenario: the projection outcome is determined by applying the 
High fertility assumption (slow fertility decline) while assuming Zero net 
migration
background image
 
71
2.
 
Medium population scenario: the projection outcome is determined by applying 
the Medium fertility assumption (moderate fertility decline), and the Medium net 
migration assumption 
(assuming -100 net migrants annually throughout the 
projection period). 
 
3.
 
Low population scenario: the projection outcome is determined by applying the 
Low fertility assumption (fast fertility decline) in combination with a High net 
migration assumption
 (assuming -200 net migrants annually). 
 
Figure 45: Past and future population trend according to the High, Medium, and 
Low population scenario, Kiribati:  2005 - 2025 
77.7
84.5
140.4
127.8
115.0
102.8
120.3
129.8
110.5
119.4
113.0
106.0
99.1
92.5
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
135.0
140.0
145.0
150.0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
P
opul
ti
on si
z
e
 (i
n num
ber
s
)
Past
High
Medium
Low
 
 
It can be seen that the impact of the different projections on the population size for the 
year 2010 are relatively minor. Significant population differences based on the different 
projection assumption can only be expected thereafter. According to the extreme 
scenarios (the Low and High population scenarios), the population size of Kiribati will be 
between 119,000 and 140,000 people in the year 2025. The Medium population scenario 
predicts a population size of almost 130 thousand people in 2025. 
 
The population size in 2015 can be expected to be between 106,000 and 115,000 people, 
depending on the projection assumptions made. 
 
Figures 46-52 feature the comparative results of the various projections, highlighting the 
differential impact on population size, growth and structure, as a result of different levels 
and trends of fertility and different levels of migration. 
 
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72
The population aged 6-15 years of age - the mandatory school age population - can be 
expected to remain at the 2005 level until the year 2010; from than onwards the three 
different population scenarios will have very different impacts on the size of the school 
age population (Figure 46). This age group would only slightly decrease in numbers if the 
fertility level decreases rapidly (as outlined by the Low fertility assumption), and that 
Kiribati would experience high levels of out migration (High migration assumption), as 
outlined by the Low population scenario. The other scenarios result in an increase of the 
school age population from 2010 onwards. The largest increase would occur if fertility 
levels only slowly decrease (High fertility assumption) and migration would be zero, as 
outlined by the High population scenario
 
Figure 46: Population aged 6-15 years (mandatory school age) according to the 
High, Medium and Low population scenarios, Kiribati: 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 
2025 
22,937
24,221
28,562
31,328
22,920
23,
009
25,
243
26,
739
22,903
21,799
21,
957
22,243
22,951
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
Number of
 persons aged 6-
15 years
2005 census
High
Medium
Low
 
 
The general impact on the future population structure by broad age groups can be seen in 
Table 25 and Figures 47-49.  
 
Regardless of the population scenario used, the proportion and size of the working age 
population (aged 15-59 years) 
will be significant larger in 2025 compared to 2005 
(Figure 49). According to the High population scenario, the working age population 
would increase from 53,320 in the year 2005 to almost 82,000 in 2025, an increase by 54 
per cent. According to the Medium population scenario the working age population 
would still increase by 48 per cent to almost 79,000 people which is more than the total 
population census count in 1995. Even according to the Low population scenario the size 
of the population aged 15-59 would be 76,000, significantly larger than in 2005. 
 
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73
Another general outcome is that the population 60 years and older will more than 
double from 5,020 persons in 2005 to over 10,000 in 2025 regardless of the projection 
variant used (Figure 49). 
 
The proportion of the young population aged 0-14 years as part of the total population 
will decrease until 2025 regardless of the type of projection scenario used (Table 25). It 
will decrease from 37 per cent to a range of 28-34 per cent of the total population. 
 
However, the size of the population younger than 15 years will most likely increase 
from 34,000 in 2005 to over 40,000 in 2025 (according to the Medium population 
scenario
). It would be almost 48,000 according to the High population scenario. Only the 
Low population scenario results in a population size of the 0-14 year olds that is less than 
in 2005 (Figure 49).  
 
The population will grow older regardless of which projection variant is used, as is 
expressed in the median age; it will increase from 20.7 years in 2005 to somewhere 
between 24.0-27.4 years as a result of a decrease of the proportion of the young 
population aged 0-14, and an increase of the proportion of the population 60 years and 
older (Table 25). 
 
However, the three different projection scenarios will produce very different population 
growth rates: the High population scenario will result in an annual population growth 
rate of 2.1 per cent between 2005 and 2025, while the Medium population scenario and 
the Low population scenario will only produce 1.7 and 1.3 per cent growth annually. 
 
Table 25: Population structure and indicators according to three different 
projection scenarios, Kiribati: 2025 
2005 2025 
Indicator 
census High Medium Low 
Population by broad age groups (%) 
 
     0-14 years 
37
34
31 
28
   15-59 years 
58
58
61 
64
   60 years and older 
5
8
8
 100
100
100 
100
 
 
 
 
 
Dependency ratio 
74
71
64 
57
Median age 
20.7
24.0
25.7 
27.4
Average annual growth rate 
1.8
2.1
1.7 
1.3
Sex ratio 
97
100
99 
99
 
The different impacts on the population size and structure are furthermore illustrated as 
population pyramids (Figure 50-52). The shaded area represents the enumerated 2005 
population size by sex and age group, and the outlined area represents the estimated 
(projected) population size in 2025 according to the High (Figure 50), Medium (Figure 
51), and Low population scenario (Figure 52).  
 
background image
 
74
Figure 47: Population by broad age groups according to 3 scenarios, Kiribati: 2010 
34,193
37,156
35,564
33,978
53,320
59,957
59,699
59,441
5,020
5,660
5,652
5,644
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
2005 Census pop
High
Medium
Low
Projection variant
P
opul
a
t
i
on s
i
z
e
younger than 15 years
15-59 years
60 years and older
 
 
Figure 48: Population by broad age groups according to 3 scenarios, Kiribati: 2015 
34,193
40,259
36,469
32,730
53,320
68,072
67,388
66,704
5,020
6,668
6,642
6,616
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
2005 Census pop
High
Medium
Low
Projection variant
P
opul
a
t
i
on s
i
ze
younger than 15 years
15-59 years
60 years and older
 
 
Figure 49: Population by broad age groups according to 3 scenarios, Kiribati: 2025 
34,193
40,399
33,071
53,320
81,967
78,989
76,018
10,467
10,381
10,295
47,953
5,020
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
2005 Census pop
High
Medium
Low
Projection variant
Popu
l
a
t
i
on s
i
z
e
younger than 15 years
15-59 years
60 years and older
 
 
background image
 
75
Figure 50: Population pyramid, High population projection: 2005 and 2025 
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Age
 gr
ou
p
Number of persons
Males
Females
Kiribati 2005 (shaded area) & 2025 (outlined)
 
 
Figure 51: Population pyramid, Medium population projection: 2005 and 2025 
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Age
 grou
p
Number of persons
Males
Females
Kiribati 2005 (shaded area) & 2025 (outlined)
 
 
Figure 52: Population pyramid, Low population projection: 2005 and 2025 
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Age
 grou
p
Number of persons
Males
Females
Kiribati 2005 (shaded area) & 2025 (outlined)
 
background image
 
76
The differently shaped pyramids clearly illustrate that the difference in population size 
and structure in 2025 between the 3 different projection variants is the size of the 
population aged 0-19 years. It highlights the predominant effect of the assumed level of 
fertility on future population size and structure: the lower the assumption of the future 
level of fertility, the smaller will be the size of the population younger than 20 years of 
age in future. 
 
In contrast, the different migration assumptions have a relatively minor impact on future 
population size and structure. 
 
Most likely outcome 
 
Predicting the likelihood of a certain future population size and structure is difficult for 
any country, and the further into the future, the more uncertain is the outcome. 
Therefore several projections variants have to be produced to allow users to choose from 
an outcome that seems most probable according to their own views and opinions.  
However, most data users like to be pointed to a most likely outcome
 
Population changes close to those presented in the Medium population scenario that uses 
the medium fertility assumption (TFR decreases from its current level to 2.6 in 2025), and 
the medium migration assumption (a total of -100 net migrants annually) appears to be 
the most likely outcome (see Figure 44 and 45, the green middle line, and Appendix 8 the 
middle outlined boxes) because: 
 
 
The relatively high level of fertility is expected to decline as it has been in 
Kiribati’s recent past and is furthermore expected to do so, based on historical 
worldwide observations of countries with a similar level of fertility (refer also to 
the theory of demographic transition, in the glossary). Therefore the High fertility 
assumption
 with its very slow fertility decline seems to be more unlikely 
outcome. 
 
 
Although fertility levels (TFR) have already declined to well below 2 in many 
parts of the world, such rapid fertility decline is not expected to occur before the 
end of the projection period in 2025, based on Kiribati’s relatively slow past pace 
of fertility decline. Hence, the Low fertility assumption, assuming a rapid fertility 
decline, appears an equally unlikely outcome. 
 
 
While it is nearly impossible to predict future migration patterns and levels, the 
Medium migration assumption appears to be the most realistic, because in recent 
years a steady flow of out migration seems to have established, at least towards 
New Zealand. Therefore an assumption of zero net migration seems an unlikely 
scenario at the moment. On the other hand larger numbers of persons leaving 
Kiribati (compared to those outlined by the Medium migration assumption of -100 
persons per year) is hampered by immigration restrictions posed by possible 
destination countries, most notably Australia and New Zealand. 
 
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77
7 IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 
 
7.1 Population dynamics 
 
Fertility 
 
Kiribati’s population growth of 1.8 per cent annually, an increase of almost 1,700 persons 
per year (more than the total population of Onotoa), is the result of a continued high 
fertility rate. Although fertility (birth) rates have decreased substantially in recent years, 
they still cause the population to grow rapidly. The average number of children per 
woman (TFR) has dropped from about 4.5 children per woman in 1995 to 3.5 in 2005. 
 
It will be a huge challenge for Kiribati communities to cope with a fast growing 
population that places increasing demands on housing, land, energy and water, 
educational services, health facilities and employment opportunities. The Government of 
Kiribati, in addressing the issue of population growth, needs to produce policies that 
focus on fertility reduction through strengthening family planning and reproductive 
health. Policies and programmes directed toward the expansion of family-planning 
services should be considered. Availability and accessibility of family planning services 
for women (and their partners) of all ages will empower them to make conscious 
decisions about the number and spacing of their births. Furthermore, pregnancies of 
young women are often unwanted and the result of unprotected sex. This is a major 
health concern, considering the risk of HIV/AIDS and STDs. 
 
Data supporting teen pregnancy as a social issue include lower educational levels, higher 
rates of poverty, and other poorer "life outcomes" in children of teenage mothers. In 
general, teenage pregnancy usually occurs outside of marriage, and, for this reason, it 
often carries a social stigma. 
 
Many stakeholders are involved in the teenage reproductive health strategies working at 
various levels to reduce teenage pregnancy by increasing the knowledge and practice of 
family planning, promoting peer education, providing sex education advisory services 
including contraceptives, involving young people in service design, educating the parents 
of teenagers on effective communication, providing better support for teenage mothers 
(such as help returning to education, advice and support), working with young fathers, 
giving better childcare, and increasing the availability of supported housing. 
 
Data gathered from the Ministry of Health/Ministry of the Interior, Family Planning 
showed a substantial increase of family planning users during the years 2002-2004, 
coinciding with substantial reduction of birth rates. However, the number of family 
planning users decreased in 2005, and birth rates increased again. These data confirm the 
link between efforts made by the Ministries to promote knowledge, availability, and 
usage of family planning methods, and its effect on birth rates. 
 
 
 
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78
Mortality 
 
Estimates on the level of mortality presented in this profile, suggest that life expectancy 
at birth and infant mortality rates have improved, although slowly during the period 
1995-2005. Females live a longer life than males, and live on average four years longer 
than males. 
 
Improved mortality rates mean that healthier people live longer lives. In working towards 
this goal, the following efforts should be made: 
 
 
improve infant, child and maternal health by improving primary health care 
programmes; 
 
expand programmes of immunization; 
 
prevention of HIV/AIDS and STDs by: 
o
 
Increasing awareness and knowledge of safer sexual behaviour and 
practices by using appropriate language; 
o
 
Targeting priority groups (Youth, women and men, particularly aged 10-
24); 
o
 
Enhancing education programmes to encourage open discussions (between 
partners and their children) on issues of sexual behaviours; 
o
 
Promoting and disseminate information outlining the advantages and 
proper use of condoms by men and women with emphasis on targeting 
male organizations; 
o
 
Reviewing, developing, implementing and evaluating the effectiveness of 
appropriate policies; 
o
 
Delaying the initial sexual activity of young people; 
o
 
Developing a well planned media campaign throughout the year based on 
health promotion with regards to HIV/AIDS; 
o
 
Ensuring protection of the rights of people living with HIV/AIDS; 
o
 
Ensuring that people living with HIV/AIDS have free and unrestricted 
access to medical treatment, facilities and support services; 
o
 
Ensuring that a reliable HIV/AIDS testing system is in place; 
o
 
Establishing a voluntary, confidential system of HIV/AIDS testing with 
informed consent that includes pre and post test counseling; 
 
combat the prevalence of diabetes and heart disease; 
 
provide a hygienic and safe living environment; 
 
promote healthy eating habits and food nutrition programmes; 
 
advocate a general healthy life style including regular physical exercise; 
 
discourage smoking and excessive alcohol consumption. 
 
Internal Migration 
 
Until the year 2000 there was a strong trend of rural to urban migration in Kiribati. 
People left the Outer islands and settled in South Tarawa. The population growth of 
South Tarawa therefore was significantly higher than the national average, resulting in 
high population densities and crowded household, especially in Betio. 
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79
 
The 2005 census data, however, show a different trend. Based on data on place of 
residence 5 years before the census, it can be concluded that there was a net-flow of 
people from the Gilbert Group islands (including South Tarawa) towards the Line 
Islands, in particular the islands Tabuaeran and Kiritimati showed very high population 
growth rates. 
 
Possible explanations for this trend are: 
 
1.
 
South Tarawa and especially Betio is ‘full’, and there is only limited availability 
of land for additional housing construction or extension, therefore 
2.
 
North Tarawa has increasingly become the destination of Outer Islands migrants, 
and possibly even for former South Tarawa residents.  
 
New settlement developments in North Tarawa, and Tabuaeran and Kiritimati increase 
demands for land allocation, energy and water consumption, waste disposal, sewage 
connections and general infrastructure. 
 
International Migration 
 
Although Kiribati 2000-2005 intercensal estimates shows that there has been negligible 
international net migration, I-Kiribati are currently eligible for migration to New Zealand 
under the so-called Pacific Access Category. 75 persons per year are allowed to migrate 
to New Zealand to establish permanent residence there. This scheme has existed since 
2002, and is fully utilized. At the same time, several hundred I-Kiribati repatriated from 
Nauru back to Kiribati. The number of arriving and departing people cancelled each other 
out which explains the calculation of ‘negligible’ international net migration for the 
period 2000-2005. However, repatriation of I-Kiribati from Nauru to Kiribati was 
completed in 2006, and net migration can be expected to be negative since then, which 
means that more people leave Kiribati than arrive. This will lower the overall population 
growth, although in view of the low numbers of migrants involved, only slightly. 
 
Unfortunately data on arrivals and departures provided by the Ministry of Foreign 
Affairs, Immigration
, remain incomplete and are unusable for migration analysis. The 
collection of arrivals cards is incomplete. This means that the level of net migration can 
only be crudely estimated by comparing intercensal population growth with rates of 
natural increase for the same time period. While this method provides a reasonably robust 
indication of net migration, planners and policy-makers require more detailed and 
timelier information on the demographic make-up of opposing migration streams to make 
and implement realistic policy decisions. Hence, further improvements are needed to 
collect and process information on age, sex and nationality of all arriving and departing 
passengers in Kiribati. 
 
Should improvements prove impossible, an alternative would be to apply the proper 
demographic methodologies, by comparing the two nearest censuses, to calculate the 
desired population data. The disadvantage of this option is that this can only be done after 
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80
the analysis of the latest census is completed. This exercise can prove more timely (and 
costly) than an efficient registration system which would provide regular and timely 
migration information. 
 
Population projections 
 
Knowledge about the current size and structure of a country’s population is needed for 
the formulation and implementation of policies and programmes in almost all areas of 
public life. Because policies are aimed at achieving goals in the future, knowledge about 
future population trends is required.  
 
The population projection scenarios presented in this paper point to a growing population 
for the Republic of Kiribati during the next 20 years. The medium-variant scenario of the 
projections points to a population of about 101,000 in 2010 and 130,000 people in the 
year 2025.  
 
Changes in the Kiribati population’s age structure as a result of possible declining 
fertility rates will have an impact on the proportion of the young population aged 0-14 
years. The changes will be reflected in a smaller proportion of those under the age of 15, 
and a larger working-age population aged 15–59 years. As a result, the dependency ratio 
of Kiribati’s population will decrease, and the population’s median age will increase by 
about 4-7 years. 
 
The population aged 60 years and older will double from 5,000 in 2005 to more than 
10,000 in 2025. 
 
The working-age population is expected to increase considerably, both in proportion and 
in absolute numbers. According to the Medium population scenario the working age 
population will be almost 60,000 people in 2010, 67,000 in 2015, and almost 80,000 in 
2025, compared to 53,000 in 2005. 
 
The needs of this larger population size and its different population subgroups should be 
considered in development plans in areas as diverse as health, education, the 
environment, and economic growth. 
 
 
7.2 Crosscutting issues 
 
Kiribati will experience a continued growth of its population during the next years. 
Appropriate health, education, and social welfare programs must be in place to fulfil the 
needs and aspirations of Kiribati communities. 
 
Vital statistics 
 
A well functioning registration system, able to supply accurate and timely statistics on 
population developments, is of fundamental importance to planners and policy makers. In 
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81
order to facilitate reliable estimates on the level and trend of fertility and mortality 
indicators, improvements need to be made to strive towards a complete registration 
system recording the number of deaths by age and sex, and the number of births by sex, 
and by age of mother. Improving co-ordination between all agencies involved is required. 
 
By tracking all entry and exiting persons, policy makers will be able to have an accurate 
and current picture of Kiribati’s total population size and structure. Such information will 
prove useful for policy planning purposes and to develop meaningful projections. 
 
The Environment 
 
As the natural resources of the land and sea form the basis of a sustainable and healthy 
life for the Kiribati communities and its people, maintaining a healthy and sustainable 
living environment should be a top priority for Kiribati’s Government 
 
The size and density of the population has a direct impact on water and energy 
consumption, sewage and waste production, the general infrastructure such as roads, the 
use of land, and the development of agriculture and marine resources.  
 
High population densities, such as in South Tarawa, mean more stress on the 
environment, and consequently there is a need for higher priorities to be placed on 
environmental health services like public garbage collection to keep the communities free 
of waste, and most importantly, a well-functioning sewage system. In addition, water 
sources need to be protected. 
 
Households 
 
It is not just the growth of the population which contributes to an increased demand in 
water and energy supply, waste disposal, sewage connections and general infrastructure, 
but an increase in the number of households due to changes in average household size. 
Even if the population size would remain stable, the number of households can still 
increase when households and/or family structures break up into smaller units which are 
often described as the transition from extended family type households to nuclear family 
type living arrangements. 
 
The census data show a very high population density and therefore a very large average 
number of people per households in South Tarawa in general, and in Betio particularly. 
This was caused by Kiribati’s high natural growth and by the movement of people from 
the outer islands to South Tarawa (Betio) which has led to visible overcrowding.  
Overcrowded living conditions place a stress on the residents, as well as their 
environment.  
 
The Kiribati Government may support the current trend of increased urban to rural 
internal migration for example by strengthening its (former) resettlement programme
 
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82
Health services, and well-being  
 
The health status of each individual and his/her family members is probably one of the 
most important concerns people have. Therefore the availability, utilization and 
affordability of quality health care and medical services are major issue of concern. 
Government and health officials need to address challenges of the health services and the 
health care system.   
 
While it cannot be expected that certain special health care facilities will be available to a 
small and remote population such as the Outer islands of Kiribati (because the low 
number of cases prohibits the operation of state-of-the-art health services that requires the 
employment of specialist personnel and the purchase and maintenance of specialist 
equipment), provisions need to be in place to ensure a system of efficient referrals to the 
nearest health facilities. Frequent visits by medical specialists are another way to comply 
with peoples’ health demands.   
 
The population projections have shown that the population aged 60 years and older will 
double in size during the next 20 years. This requires strengthening of special services for 
the growing number of elderly people, including a pension scheme with retirement 
benefits, and specialized health care for the elderly. 
 
Education  
 
The educational level of a population is a key indicator of the development and quality of 
life in a country. Education plays an important role in development through its links with 
demographic, as well as economic and social factors. In general, there is a close and 
complex relationship between education, fertility, morbidity, mortality and mobility: 
when couples are better educated, they tend to have fewer children, their children’s health 
status improves and their survival rates tend to increase. Higher levels of educational 
attainment also contribute to a better-qualified workforce, higher wages, and better 
economic performance than the proportion of people who had little or no formal 
education and training.  
 
In this regard, it is a benefit that young people leave the country to join overseas higher 
educational institutions. However, graduates need to return to suitable employment to 
avoid a brain drain and to retain the educated with their newly acquired knowledge and 
skills.  
 
School enrolment data shows that almost 9 per cent of children in the age group 6–15 
years were not enrolled in schools, and almost 20 per cent of 15 year olds were not 
attending school. More efforts need to be undertaken to get those children (back) into 
school, as it is not only compulsory by law for children of this age to attend school but 
also every child has both a need and a right to gain basic education. 
 
The overall educational attainment of the Kiribati population has improved since 1995. 
Higher proportions of school-leavers with secondary education (and post-secondary 
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83
qualifications) have an impact on a country’s labour market for both the private and 
public sectors. 
 
Although data on educational attainment shows that men have achieved, on average, 
higher academically than females, information on current school enrolment shows a far 
more balanced picture, with actually more females currently enrolled than males. 
 
Economic activity and labour market 
 
Economic activity and employment is shaped by the size of the working-age population, 
the educational skill level of the labour force, and by the economic resources available to 
a country. 
 
Apart from Government jobs, employment on fishing vessels and especially on merchant, 
container boats, and tankers is the main source of employment for (male) I-Kiribati. 
Therefore it was sobering to hear that these opportunities are declining. 
 
According to representatives of the South Pacific Marine Services (SPMS) and the 
Marine Training Centre (MTC) approximately 1,000 I-Kiribati crew is currently 
employed on vessels around the world. However, recent high dismissal rates of I-Kiribati 
crew due to misconduct have a profound impact on recruitment with shipping companies 
being increasingly reluctant to employ I-Kiribati. Misconduct refers to violent behaviour 
due to drunkenness, and/or home sickness, or other unspecified stress factors.  
 
Aside from the problems of ‘misconduct’, other disincentives to employ I-Kiribati 
include poor health of potential recruits (alcohol, obesity, infections), difficulties 
obtaining visas, and long (timely) and expensive travel to employer, especially in view of 
high competition from other countries (Philippines etc). 
 
According to SPMS there would be the potential to employ 4-times more crew of I-
Kiribati origin on foreign vessels (about 4,000), if their reputation as reliable crew would 
improve, and if it would be easier (more cost effective) to get recruits from Kiribati to 
their respective  boats.  
 
On a positive note, the Marine Training Centre (MTC) provides training for 150 students 
per year with 100 per cent employment prospect on international shipping vessels. For 
the first time this year the MTC trains 12 female crew as stewards and cooks to be 
included on foreign shipping vessels. 
 
The Kiribati Fishing Services (KFS) provides employment for about 300 I-Kiribati crew 
on 37 Japanese boats on a 1-year contract. Unfortunately, these opportunities are 
declining due to a reduction in the Japanese vessels (due to international competition). 
The  Fisheries Training Centre (FTC) provides training for 72 students per year to be 
employed by KFS with about 60per cent per class graduating. Students are required to 
learn Japanese, which is a major stumbling block to graduate. Recruitment quota per 
island exists according to size of 18-30 year male population. 
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84
 
Although a high percentage (64 per cent) of the Kiribati population 15 years and older 
was economically active, only a relatively small proportion (23 per cent) was regularly 
employed and received a regular cash income. It was mainly these relatively few people 
(13,133) who supported the rest of the population in regard to cash income. This means 
that one employed person supports on average about 6 other people. 
 
More than half (53 per cent) of the employed cash workers were employed in the Public 
Administration. 
 
According to the projection results presented in this report, the working-age population 
will increase significantly during the next 20 years. Its future size will increase rapidly: 
probably by about 26,000 people between 2005 and the year 2025. 
 
Households and families who are economically incapable of sustaining an acceptable and 
healthy lifestyle might need extra attention from the government, since unhealthy living 
environments affect everybody in the long run. In particular the following minimum 
housing condition should be in place: access to clean water and public electricity, an 
adequate sewage system, and waste disposal facilities. 
 
Government and business officials are encouraged to partner their efforts and ideas to 
develop innovative strategies that will promote economic diversification and growth.  
 
Good governance 
 
 
Good governance and effective policymaking should provide the framework for 
sustainable development within which the interrelationship of population, environment, 
and all possible socio-economic aspects of a country can prosper cohesively.  
 
In this regard it is important that policy makers, planners, political parties and community 
leaders need to be aware of the needs and aspirations of the people of their country to 
effectively provide for the specific needs of their population, and the different population 
sub-groups. Governments need to know about their country’s population structure, 
population processes and socio-economic characteristics in order to plan for an adequate 
standard of living, and for a proper provision and distribution of goods and services.  
 
 
 
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85
 
Appendices 
 
 
Appendix 1: Arriaga's approach for estimation of ASFR for two points in time and the age patterns of 
fertility (Arriaga-Brass), MORTPAK4.1, procedure FERTPF, United Nations 
 
First enumeration: Nov 2000
Fertility pattern is tabulated by age of woman at enumeration
20 - 25
25 - 30
30 - 35
November 2000 to November 2001
  Recorded
  Calculated
   15 - 20
0.091
0.031
0.060
0.031
0.039
0.060
0.039
1.524
0.043
0.041
0.042
   20 - 25
0.729
0.147
0.157
0.147
0.157
0.216
0.196
1.104
0.173
0.166
0.170
   25 - 30
1.739
0.188
0.190
0.188
0.188
0.406
0.385
1.056
0.208
0.199
0.203
   30 - 35
2.890
0.164
0.163
0.164
0.160
0.569
0.545
1.044
0.177
0.169
0.173
   35 - 40
3.713
0.126
0.104
0.126
0.120
0.673
0.665
1.012
0.132
0.127
0.130
   40 - 45
4.328
0.052
0.068
0.052
0.046
0.741
0.710
1.043
0.050
0.048
0.049
   45 - 50
4.544
0.009
0.025
0.009
0.007
0.766
0.717
1.068
0.007
0.007
0.007
Total Fertility Rate:
3.8
3.6
3.96
3.79
3.87
Last enumeration: Nov 2005
Fertility pattern is tabulated by age of woman at enumeration
20 - 25
25 - 30
30 - 35
November 2004 to November 2005
  Recorded
  Calculated
   15 - 20
0.074
0.0306
0.051
0.031
0.039
0.051
0.039
1.301
0.039
0.040
0.039
   20 - 25
0.636
0.1475
0.147
0.148
0.156
0.197
0.195
1.012
0.158
0.158
0.158
   25 - 30
1.578
0.1709
0.175
0.171
0.172
0.372
0.367
1.015
0.174
0.174
0.174
   30 - 35
2.655
0.1628
0.165
0.163
0.159
0.538
0.526
1.023
0.161
0.161
0.161
   35 - 40
3.582
0.1097
0.115
0.110
0.104
0.653
0.630
1.037
0.105
0.106
0.106
   40 - 45
4.111
0.0495
0.063
0.050
0.044
0.716
0.673
1.063
0.044
0.044
0.044
   45 - 50
4.495
0.0085
0.023
0.009
0.006
0.739
0.680
1.087
0.006
0.006
0.006
Total Fertility Rate:
3.7
3.4
3.44
3.45
3.44
Cumulation of
Age Specific Fertility Rates 
Based on Adjustment 
Factor for the Age Group
Adjustment 
Factors
Fertility 
Pattern by 
Age at Birth
ASFR
Fertility 
Pattern by Age 
at Birth of 
Child
Fertility 
Pattern by 
Age at Survey 
Date
Fertility 
Consistent 
with C.E.B. 
(ASFR)
Age Specific 
Fertility rates 
(ASFR)
Children 
Ever Born
Age Group 
of Woman
Age Group 
of Woman
Children 
Ever Born
Age Specific 
Fertility rates 
(ASFR)
Fertility 
Consistent 
with C.E.B. 
(ASFR)
Fertility 
Pattern by 
Age at Survey 
Date
Fertility 
Pattern by Age 
at Birth of 
Child
Cumulation of
Age Specific Fertility Rates 
Based on Adjustment 
Factor for the Age Group
ASFR
Fertility 
Pattern by 
Age at Birth
Adjustment 
Factors
 
 
 
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86
Appendix 2: Estimates of Fertility Based on the Arriaga Method, PAS spreadsheets, procedure ARFE-
2, US Census Bureau 
 
Adjusting
ASFR
cumulative
pattern
cumulative
factors
20-29
25-29
25-34
30-34
2000 Census
ASFR corrected for one-half year between birth and reporting.
15-19
0.0596
0.0596
0.0385
0.0385
1.5463
0.0417
0.0407
0.0405
0.0402
20-24
0.1570
0.2166
0.1567
0.1953
1.1093
0.1698
0.1656
0.1645
0.1634
25-29
0.1895
0.4061
0.1891
0.3844
1.0567
0.2048
0.1998
0.1985
0.1971
30-34
0.1627
0.5689
0.1613
0.5456
1.0426
0.1746
0.1704
0.1693
0.1681
35-39
0.1039
0.6728
0.1202
0.6658
1.0105
0.1301
0.1270
0.1261
0.1253
40-44
0.0504
0.7232
0.0452
0.7110
1.0171
0.0490
0.0478
0.0475
0.0471
45-49
0.0116
0.7348
0.0063
0.7172
1.0245
0.0068
0.0066
0.0066
0.0065
TFR
3.67
3.59
3.88
3.79
3.76
3.74
Mean age at childbearing
29.79
2005 Census
ASFR corrected for one-half year between birth and reporting.
15-19
0.0507
0.0507
0.0381
0.0381
1.3318
0.0387
0.0387
0.0388
0.0389
20-24
0.1468
0.1975
0.1558
0.1938
1.0189
0.1585
0.1582
0.1588
0.1593
25-29
0.1745
0.3720
0.1723
0.3662
1.0158
0.1753
0.1750
0.1757
0.1763
30-34
0.1655
0.5374
0.1593
0.5254
1.0229
0.1620
0.1618
0.1623
0.1629
35-39
0.1153
0.6528
0.1043
0.6297
1.0367
0.1061
0.1059
0.1063
0.1066
40-44
0.0493
0.7021
0.0436
0.6732
1.0428
0.0443
0.0443
0.0444
0.0446
45-49
0.0125
0.7145
0.0062
0.6795
1.0517
0.0063
0.0063
0.0063
0.0064
TFR
3.57
3.40
3.46
3.45
3.46
3.48
Mean age at childbearing
29.64
Year and 
item or age
ASFR from CEB
ASFR 
Adjusted ASFR's based on age group
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87 
 
 
 
Appendix 3: Child mortality indices based on number of children ever born and still alive, using procedure CEBCS of MORTPAK 4.1 
for MALES, Kiribati: 2005 
  
United Nations Models 
  
Coale-Demeny Model 
  Reference 
(Palloni-Heligman Equations) 
  Reference 
(Trussell Equations) 
Age group of women 
      Date 
   Latin Am. 
   Chilean 
  So. Asian 
    Far East 
   General 
      Date 
      West 
     North 
      East 
     South 
Infant mortality rate 
  
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
    15 - 20 
   Oct  2004 
0.077 
0.085 
0.077 
0.077 
0.077 
   Nov  2004 
0.082 
0.08 
0.082 
0.078 
    20 - 25 
   Sep  2003 
0.053 0.059  0.053 
0.053 
0.054 
   Sep  2003 
0.054 
0.05 
0.057 
0.056 
    25 - 30 
   Mar  2002 
0.048 
0.055 
0.049 
0.049 
0.049 
   Jan  2002 
0.049 
0.044 
0.053 
0.053 
    30 - 35 
   Apr  2000 
0.054 
0.064 
0.056 
0.056 
0.056 
   Dec  1999 
0.055 
0.049 
0.061 
0.06 
    35 - 40 
   Dec  1997 
0.057 
0.069 
0.06 
0.058 
0.059 
   Jul  1997 
0.057 
0.051 
0.064 
0.065 
    40 - 45 
   Mar  1995 
0.062 
0.077 
0.066 
0.063 
0.064 
   Dec  1994 
0.062 
0.054 
0.071 
0.07 
    45 - 50 
   Nov  1991 
0.071 
0.09 
0.076 
0.071 
0.073 
   Dec  1991 
0.07 
0.059 
0.081 
0.08 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
Probability of dying between ages 1 and 5 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
    15 - 20 
   Oct  2004 
0.041 
0.018 
0.036 
0.034 
0.035 
   Nov  2004 
0.037 
0.053 
0.024 
0.029 
    20 - 25 
   Sep  2003 
0.021 0.01  0.02  0.018 
0.019 
   Sep  2003 
0.02 
0.026 
0.013 
0.013 
    25 - 30 
   Mar  2002 
0.019 
0.009 
0.017 
0.016 
0.016 
   Jan  2002 
0.017 
0.021 
0.011 
0.011 
    30 - 35 
   Apr  2000 
0.023 
0.011 
0.022 
0.02 
0.02 
   Dec  1999 
0.02 
0.025 
0.014 
0.016 
    35 - 40 
   Dec  1997 
0.025 
0.013 
0.024 
0.021 
0.022 
   Jul  1997 
0.021 
0.026 
0.016 
0.019 
    40 - 45 
   Mar  1995 
0.028 
0.016 
0.028 
0.024 
0.025 
   Dec  1994 
0.024 
0.029 
0.018 
0.023 
    45 - 50 
   Nov  1991 
0.036 
0.02 
0.036 
0.029 
0.032 
   Dec  1991 
0.029 
0.033 
0.023 
0.03 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
Child mortality 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
    15 - 20 
   Oct  2004 
0.115 
0.102 
0.111 
0.109 
0.11 
2004.88 
0.116 
0.128 
0.104 
0.104 
    20 - 25 
   Sep  2003 
0.073 0.068  0.072 
0.071 
0.071 2003.71 0.073 0.075 
0.069 0.068 
    25 - 30 
   Mar  2002 
0.066 
0.064 
0.065 
0.065 
0.065 
2002.04 
0.065 
0.064 
0.063 
0.063 
    30 - 35 
   Apr  2000 
0.076 
0.075 
0.076 
0.075 
0.075 
1999.96 
0.074 
0.073 
0.074 
0.075 
    35 - 40 
   Dec  1997 
0.081 
0.081 
0.082 
0.079 
0.08 
1997.54 
0.077 
0.075 
0.079 
0.082 
    40 - 45 
   Mar  1995 
0.088 
0.091 
0.092 
0.086 
0.087 
1994.96 
0.084 
0.081 
0.087 
0.091 
    45 - 50 
   Nov  1991 
0.105 
0.108 
0.11 
0.098 
0.103 
1991.96 
0.097 
0.091 
0.102 
0.108 
 
 
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88 
 
 
 
Appendix 4: Child mortality indices based on number of children ever born and still alive, using procedure CEBCS of MORTPAK 4.1 
for FEMALES, Kiribati: 2005 
  
United Nations Models 
  
Coale-Demeny Model 
  Reference 
(Palloni-Heligman Equations) 
  Reference 
(Trussell Equations) 
Age group of women 
      Date 
   Latin Am. 
   Chilean 
  So. Asian 
    Far East 
   General 
      Date 
      West 
     North 
      East 
     South 
Infant mortality rate 
  
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
    15 - 20 
   Oct  2004 
<  .028 
<  .031 
<  .032 
<  .015 
<  .024 
   Dec  2004 
<  .013 
<  .017 
<  .016 
<  .036 
    20 - 25 
   Oct  2003 
0.05 0.056  0.051 
0.051 
0.051 
   Nov  2003 
0.052 
0.048 
0.055 
0.054 
    25 - 30 
   May  2002 
0.038 
0.043 
0.039 
0.039 
0.039 
   Feb  2002 
0.039 
0.035 
0.041 
0.042 
    30 - 35 
   Apr  2000 
0.044 
0.051 
0.045 
0.045 
0.045 
   Dec  1999 
0.045 
0.04 
0.049 
0.049 
    35 - 40 
   Dec  1997 
0.049 
0.058 
0.051 
0.05 
0.05 
   Aug  1997 
0.049 
0.043 
0.055 
0.056 
    40 - 45 
   Feb  1995 
0.057 
0.071 
0.061 
0.058 
0.059 
   Dec  1994 
0.057 
0.05 
0.065 
0.065 
    45 - 50 
   Oct  1991 
0.06 
0.075 
0.064 
0.06 
0.062 
   Dec  1991 
0.058 
0.05 
0.067 
0.069 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
Probability of dying between ages 1 and 5 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
    15 - 20 
   Oct  2004 
<  .008 
<  .004 
<  .008 
<  .002 
<  .005 
   Dec  2004 
<  .002 
<  .004 
<  .002 
<  .005 
    20 - 25 
   Oct  2003 
0.02 0.009  0.018 
0.017 
0.018 
   Nov  2003 
0.018 
0.025 
0.012 
0.012 
    25 - 30 
   May  2002 
0.013 
0.006 
0.012 
0.011 
0.011 
   Feb  2002 
0.011 
0.014 
0.007 
0.007 
    30 - 35 
   Apr  2000 
0.016 
0.008 
0.015 
0.014 
0.014 
   Dec  1999 
0.014 
0.018 
0.01 
0.01 
    35 - 40 
   Dec  1997 
0.019 
0.01 
0.018 
0.016 
0.017 
   Aug  1997 
0.016 
0.02 
0.012 
0.013 
    40 - 45 
   Feb  1995 
0.025 
0.014 
0.025 
0.021 
0.022 
   Dec  1994 
0.021 
0.025 
0.016 
0.019 
    45 - 50 
   Oct  1991 
0.027 
0.015 
0.027 
0.022 
0.024 
   Dec  1991 
0.021 
0.025 
0.017 
0.021 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
Child mortality 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
    15 - 20 
   Oct  2004 
<  .036 
<  .035 
<  .04 
<  .017 
<  .029 
2004.96 
<  .015 
<  .021 
<  .018 
<  .041 
    20 - 25 
   Oct  2003 
0.069 0.065  0.068 
0.067 
0.068 2003.88  0.07 0.072 
0.066 0.065 
    25 - 30 
   May  2002 
0.05 
0.049 
0.05 
0.049 
0.049 
2002.12 
0.05 
0.049 
0.048 
0.048 
    30 - 35 
   Apr  2000 
0.059 
0.059 
0.06 
0.058 
0.059 
1999.96 
0.058 
0.057 
0.058 
0.059 
    35 - 40 
   Dec  1997 
0.067 
0.067 
0.068 
0.066 
0.067 
1997.62 
0.064 
0.063 
0.066 
0.068 
    40 - 45 
   Feb  1995 
0.08 
0.083 
0.084 
0.078 
0.08 
1994.96 
0.077 
0.074 
0.08 
0.084 
    45 - 50 
   Oct  1991 
0.086 
0.089 
0.09 
0.08 
0.084 
1991.96 
0.078 
0.074 
0.083 
0.089 
 
background image
 
89 
Appendix 5: Estimated number of deaths by age and sex for 2005, based on 2005 census population and calculated m(x,n)-values from 
abridged life tables for males and females, Kiribati: 2005 
 
2005 census population 
m(x,n)-values from 
estimated life table 
Number of deaths = 
(m(x,n)-values by age and sex) x  
(2005 census population by age and sex) 
Age 
Male Female  Total
Male 
Female 
Male 
Female
Total
0 1,235 
1,168 
2,403
0.0554
0.0532
68 
62
130
1-4 4,378 
4,136 
8,514
0.0045
0.0044
20 
18
38
5-9 6,315 
6,151 
12,466
0.0014
0.0011
7
15
10-14 5,597 5,213 
10,810
0.0012
0.0008
4
11
15-19 5,511 5,282 
10,793
0.0020
0.0017
11 
9
20
20-24 4,247 4,327 8,574
0.0029
0.0023
12 
10
22
25-29 3,274 3,508 6,782
0.0033
0.0030
11 
11
21
30-34 2,631 2,930 5,561
0.0040
0.0036
11 
11
21
35-39 3,095 3,364 6,459
0.0055
0.0047
17 
16
33
40-44 2,575 2,678 5,253
0.0081
0.0061
21 
16
37
45-49 2,046 2,252 4,298
0.0119
0.0086
24 
19
44
50-54 1,479 1,671 3,150
0.0187
0.0125
28 
21
49
55-59 1,143 1,307 2,450
0.0268
0.0184
31 
24
55
60-64 802 938 
1,740
0.0423
0.0270
34 
25
59
65-69 547 741 
1,288
0.0622
0.0399
34 
30
64
70-74 428 683 
1,111
0.0885
0.0587
38 
40
78
75-79 207 330 537
0.1216
0.0853
25 
28
53
80-84 76 
176 
252
0.1650
0.1294
13 
23
35
85+ 26 
66 
92
0.2358
0.2128
14
20
Total 
45,612 
46,921 
92,533   
  
418 388
806
CDR       
9.2 8.3
8.7
background image
 
90 
Appendix 6: Population 15 years and older by labor market activity, by sex, and by urban/rural residence, Kiribati: 2005 
 
Labour Force 
Non Labour Force 
Region/Sex 
Cash 
work 
Village 
Work 
Un-
employed
Total 
Student
Home 
duties 
Inactive Retired 
Disabled/ 
sick 
Prisoner Total NS* Total 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
 
Total 
13,133 21,582 
2,254
36,969
7,323
6,077
3,662
3,227 709
71
21,069
302
58,340 
   Urban 
8,068 
5,272 
1,632
14,972
3,677
2,929
2,442
1,787 382
66
11,283
264
26,519 
   Rural 
5,065 
16,310 
622
21,997
3,646
3,148
1,220
1,440 327
5
9,786
38
31,821 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
 
Males 
8,095 10,788 
1,130
20,013
3,496
793
1,996
1,179 398
64
7,926
148
28,087 
   Urban 
4,842 
2,257 
779
7,878
1,778
453
1,262
669 202
62
4,426
129
12,433 
   Rural 
3,253 
8,531 
351
12,135
1,718
340
734
510 196
2
3,500
19
15,654 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
 
Females 
5,038 10,794 
1,124
16,956
3,827
5,284
1,666
2,048 311
7
13,143
154
30,253 
   Urban 
3,226 
3,015 
853
7,094
1,899
2,476
1,180
1,118 180
4
6,857
135
14,086 
   Rural 
1,812 
7,779 
271
9,862
1,928
2,808
486
930 131
3
6,286
19
16,167 
*includes 61 persons classified as ‘mission’
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91 
Appendix 7: Total fertility rate (TFR) of Australia, France, New Zealand, United States of America, and average TFR of these 4 
countries: 1975-2005 
 
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
2.50
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
TF
R
 
(aver
age 
nu
mber
 of
 
childre
n
 per
 wom
a
n)
US
NZ
France
Australia
Average
 
background image
 
92
 
 
Appendix 8: Projected population size according to 9 projection scenarios (combination of 3 
different fertility and migration assumptions), Kiribati: 2010, 2015, and 2025 
 
Year 2010 
Fertility assumption  
Migration assumption 
(TFR from 2005 to 2025) 
Zero 
Medium High 
Slow decline:   
(3.5 → 3.1) 
102,773 102,450  102,126 
Medium decline  
(3.5 → 2.6) 
101,235 
100,915 
100,595 
Fast decline  
(3.5 → 2.1) 
99,696 99,380  99,063 
 
Year 2015 
Fertility assumption  
Migration assumption 
(TFR from 2005 to 2025) 
Zero 
Medium High 
Slow decline:   
(3.5 → 3.1) 
114,999 114,042  113,085 
Medium decline  
(3.5 → 2.6) 
111,434 
110,499 
109,565 
Fast decline  
(3.5 → 2.1) 
107,873 106,962  106,050 
 
Year 2025 
Fertility assumption  
Migration assumption 
(TFR from 2005 to 2025) 
Zero 
Medium High 
Slow decline:   
(3.5 → 3.1) 
140,387 138,040  135,693 
Medium decline  
(3.5 → 2.6) 
132,012 
129,769 
127,527 
Fast decline  
(3.5 → 2.1) 
123,659 121,521  119,384 
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93
Glossary 
 
Indicator 
 
Definition 
 
Age dependency ratio 
Number of persons in the “dependent” ages (population 
younger than 15 years plus population 60 years and older) 
per 100 in  the “economically productive ages” 15-59 years 
Average age at (first) marriage 
(SMAM) 
Approximation of average age at marriage, based on 
proportion of population never married (single) 
Balance equation 
Population growth = Births – Deaths + Net Migration 
Births - estimated number for 2005 
Estimated age specific fertility rates (ASFR) * enumerated 
number of women by age in 2005 
Child mortality Rate (1q5) 
Probability of dying of children aged 1-4 years per 1000 
Contraceptive prevalence rate 
Female family planning users of childbearing age (15-49 
year) 
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) 
Estimated number of births per 1000 population 
(2,475/92,533*1000) 
Crude Death Rate (CDR) 
Estimated number of deaths per 1000 population 
(806/92,533*1000) 
Crude net migration rate 
Rate of growth minus rate of natural increase 
Deaths - estimated number for 2005 
Estimated age specific death rates [m(x)] by sex (from life 
table) * enumerated population by age and sex in 2005 
Employment-population ratio 
Proportion of employed persons in cash work at a given age 
and sex, as part of the corresponding total number of 
persons of the same characteristics 
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) 
Number of deaths of infants (children younger than 1 year) 
per 1000 births 
Intercensal period 
Time period between two censuses 
Labour force 
Persons employed (cash work plus village work) and 
unemployed (excludes those not seeking employment) 
Labour force participation rate 
Proportion of persons in the labour force at a given age and 
sex, as part of the corresponding total number of persons of 
the same characteristics 
Life expectancy at birth 
Number of years a new born baby can expect to live on 
average 
Maternal mortality rate 
Number of deaths due to pregnancy or delivery per 100,000 
deliveries 
Mean Age at Childbearing 
Average age of women when giving birth 
Median age 
The age at which exactly half the population is older 
and half is younger 
Rate of growth (%) 
Average annual growth rate between 2000-2005 
ln(TotPop2005/TotPop2000)/5 * 100 
Rate of natural increase 
Crude birth rate (CBR) minus Crude death rate (CDR) 
Sex ratio 
Number of males per 100 females. 
Teenage Fertility Rate 
Number of births of women aged 15-19 years per 1000 
background image
 
94
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 
Average number of children per woman 
Under 5 mortality (q5) 
Probability of dying of children aged 0-4 per 1000 
Urban population 
Total population of South Tarawa 
background image
 
95
The Demographic Transition 
 
According to the theory of demographic transition, throughout history all countries will undergo 
change from high rates of births and deaths to low rates of births and deaths. This transition process 
is usually closely associated with economic, social and scientific developments. This is assumed to 
happen in four distinct stages: 
 
Stage 1: High birth rate, high death rate  
 
       little or no growth 
Stage 2: High birth rate, falling death rate    
       high growth 
Stage 3: Declining birth rate, relatively low death rate     slowed growth 
Stage 4: Low birth rate, low death rate  
 
       very low population growth 
 
High levels of births and deaths kept most populations from growing rapidly through time. In fact, 
many populations not only failed to grow but also completely died out when birth rates did not 
compensate for high death rates (stage 1). There are few populations/communities left today at 
stage 1. 
 
Death rates eventually fell as living conditions, nutrition and public health improved. The decline in 
mortality usually precedes the decline in fertility, resulting in population growth during the 
transition period (stage 2). In Europe and other industrialized countries, death rates fell slowly. 
With the added benefit of medical advances, death rates fell more rapidly in the countries that began 
the transition in the 20th century. These are/were foremost the so-called developing countries. Their 
death rates often fell much faster than in countries of Europe because they benefited from 
inventions and innovations readily available to them. 
 
In general, fertility rates fell neither as quickly nor as dramatically as death rates, and thus 
population grew rapidly.  
 
The 3rd stage is characterized by falling birth rates. There are many reasons for this to happen and 
are different from country to country and population to population, e.g.: transition from non-
monetary to monetary economy, urbanization, change in values from a community emphasis to 
individualism, increasing emphasis on consumerism, improved education, availability of (modern) 
family planning methods (contraceptives), greater involvement of women in the workplace, a rising 
cost of living, rising cost of raising children, and preferences in how people want to spend their 
time. 
 
The demographic transition is regarded as completed when both birth and death rates have reached 
a low and stable level (stage 4). As a result population growth is very low. 
 
Originally the theory of demographic transition included only the 4 stages described above. There is 
now another stage, the so-called post-transition period (although it is uncertain whether all 
countries will reach this stage): 
 
Post-transition period: Very low birth rate, low death rate  
 negative growth 
 
When fertility falls to very low levels and stays there for a protracted period, a slow rate of 
population growth can turn into a negative one, and the population decreases. Many countries in 
Europe and some in Asia now have TFRs well below two children per woman. The TFRs of the 
Republic of Korea, Ukraine, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Republic of Moldova, Bulgaria, 
background image
 
96
and Belarus - all about 1.2 - were among the world’s lowest, and those of several other countries 
were not far behind. The TFRs of Macao and Hong Kong was even less than 1 child per woman on 
average. Many of the factors that lowered fertility in the first place - greater involvement of women 
in the workplace, a rising cost of living, and preferences in how people want to spend their time - 
appear to be keeping fertility rates very low.  
 
While the theory of demographic transition describes the population history of Western Europe 
quite well, for many reasons, developing countries not always exhibit the same patterns of change. 
In some cases, death rates increased after early contact with outside societies resulted in local 
epidemics as groups succumbed to diseases against which they had no natural immunity. When 
health conditions improved as a result of the application of new and efficient disease control 
technologies, death rates declined while birth rates sometimes increased. This combination of 
factors produced population growth rates in today's developing countries that are much higher than 
ever experienced in the pre-industrial West.  
 
 
 
Stylized Graph of the European Demographic Transition 
 
Sources: Population Handbook, Population Reference Bureau, Inc, Washington D.C., 4th Intern. Edition, 
PNG National Population Policy 2000-2010, Department of Planning & Monitoring, Waigani, PNG.
background image
 
97
ISLAND SUMMARY INFORMATION 
 
 
 
Gilbert Group islands: 
Banaba 
Makin 
Butaritari 
Marakei 
Abaiang 
North Tarawa 
South Tarawa 
Maiana 
Abemama 
Kuria 
Aranuka 
Nonouti 
North Tabiteuea 
South Tabiteuea 
Beru 
Nikunau 
Onotoa 
Tamana 
Arorae 
 
 
Line Group islands: 
Teeraina 
Tabuaeran 
Kiritimati 
 
 
Phoenix Group islands: 
Kanton 
background image
 
98
BANABA 
 
Population trend: 1947-2005 
 
2,060
2,706
2,192
2,314
2,201
46
284
339
276
301
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1947
1963
1968
1973
1978
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Census year
P
opu
l
a
t
i
on (
i
n nu
m
b
e
r
s)
 
 
Population pyramid by 5-year age group and sex, 2000 and 2005 
 
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Age g
r
ou
p
Number of persons
Males
Females
Banaba 2000 (shaded area) & 2005 (outlined)
 
 
background image
 
99
      Age
     Males
   Females
     Total
      Age
     Males
   Females
     Total
0-4
25
14
39
0-4
13
17
30
5-9
24
24
48
5-9
24
25
49
10-14
17
16
33
10-14
28
19
47
15-19
7
3
10
15-19
17
8
25
20-24
11
15
26
20-24
17
10
27
25-29
7
12
19
25-29
12
8
20
30-34
12
15
27
30-34
4
4
8
35-39
10
14
24
35-39
12
18
30
40-44
12
6
18
40-44
7
10
17
45-49
9
3
12
45-49
12
8
20
50-54
4
4
8
50-54
8
4
12
55-59
2
1
3
55-59
5
1
6
60-64
5
1
6
60-64
1
1
2
65-69
1
1
2
65-69
2
2
4
70-74
1
0
1
70-74
1
1
2
75+
0
0
0
75+
1
1
2
     Total
147
129
276
     Total
164
137
301
     Males
   Females
     Total
     Males
   Females
     Total
 0-14
66
54
120
0-14
65
61
126
15-24
18
18
36
15-24
34
18
52
15-59
74
73
147
15-59
94
71
165
15-64
79
74
153
15-64
95
72
167
60+
7
2
9
60+
5
5
10
65+
2
1
3
65+
4
4
8
     Males
   Females
     Total
     Males
   Females
     Total
 0-14
45
42
43
0-14
40
45
42
15-24
12
14
13
15-24
21
13
17
15-59
50
57
53
15-59
57
52
55
15-64
54
57
55
15-64
58
53
55
60+
5
2
3
60+
3
4
3
65+
1
1
1
65+
2
3
3
15-59
88
15-59
82
15-64
80
15-64
80
114
120
     Males
   Females
     Total
     Males
   Females
     Total
20.5
22.7
21.6
20.1
20.0
20.0
     Males
   Females
     Total
Total growth (in numbers)
17
8
25
Total growth (%)
11.6
6.2
9.1
Average annual growth rate (%)
2.2
1.2
1.7
2005
2000
2005
2000
2005
2000-2005
2000
2005
2000
2005
Median age (years)
Population growth
Population by 5-year age groups and sex
Population by broad age groups (in numbers)
Population by broad age groups (in percentages)
Age dependency ratio
Sex ratio (males per 100 females)
2000
2005
2000
background image
 
100
MAKIN 
 
Population trend: 1947-2005 
 
969
1,292
1,387
1,445
1,419
1,777
1,762
1,830
1,691
2,385
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1947
1963
1968
1973
1978
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Census year
P
opu
l
a
t
i
on (
i
n nu
m
b
e
r
s)
 
 
Population pyramid by 5-year age group and sex, 2000 and 2005 
 
200
150
100
50
0
50
100
150
200
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Age g
r
ou
p
Number of persons
Males
Females
Makin 2000 (shaded area) & 2005 (outlined)
 
 
background image
 
101
      Age
     Males
   Females
     Total
      Age
     Males
   Females
     Total
0-4
121
130
251
0-4
157
140
297
5-9
126
141
267
5-9
156
147
303
10-14
137
116
253
10-14
143
164
307
15-19
81
66
147
15-19
167
117
284
20-24
72
52
124
20-24
157
110
267
25-29
52
45
97
25-29
74
84
158
30-34
53
59
112
30-34
67
63
130
35-39
38
52
90
35-39
67
73
140
40-44
36
45
81
40-44
46
63
109
45-49
32
36
68
45-49
40
59
99
50-54
29
24
53
50-54
44
53
97
55-59
22
24
46
55-59
36
38
74
60-64
16
19