Climate Summary November

IN BRIEF

FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

DECEMBER

2006

Fiji Islands Climate Summary

November 2006

November saw a marked reduction in rainfall as El Niño phe-
nomenon established it self in the region. Consequently, ar-
eas in the North-western Viti Levu, parts of Northern Vanua
Levu, Taveuni and islands in the Lau Group were notably
dry.

There was a general absence of major organised weather
systems affecting the country except on three occasions
when troughs of low pressure developed near the group and
brought significant rain. On one occasion heavy rain associ-
ated with a trough caused a landslide in Nausori. Otherwise
most of the rainfall accounted during the month resulted
from localised effects.

During the last three months, majority of the sites experi-
enced average to below average rainfall; except for Kadavu
which received above average rainfall. There has been spa-
tial extension of below average rainfall which includes the

Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups, most parts of Western and
Eastern Viti Levu, Northern Vanua Levu, Northern Lau Group
and parts of Southern Lau Group.

The country experienced hot and humid conditions for most
of the month. Both daytime and night time temperatures were
generally above average. A new high of mean monthly maxi-
mum temperature of 30.3

C was recorded at Levuka.

A moderate El Niño phenomenon has been established in
the region with some signs of it further strengthening and
persisting into early 2007. Consequently, the trend of sup-
pressed rainfall is likely to continue with many parts of the
country continuing to experience significantly below average
rainfall in the coming three months.

(

An ENSO status and rainfall predictions can be obtained from Fiji

Islands Climate Outlook bulletin which is issued towards the middle
of every month).

Generally hot and humid weather pattern dominated the
country in November. on three occasions when troughs of
low pressure developed near the group and brought signifi-
cant rain.

During the first four days of month, fresh easterlies main-
tained across the group due to intense high pressure system
to the south of the group. As the system moved east on the
5

, winds eased and gradually turned towards the northeast.

A front approached Fiji from the southwest on the 10

but

was short-lived as it dissipated over the southern parts of the
Group on the 12

. As the front dissipated, a trough of low

pressure and embedded circulation developed to the west of
Fiji and moved across the group over the next three days,
causing heavy afternoon rain and thunderstorms. Nadi re-
corded 104.8mm of rain on the 14

and hail was reported

during this heavy rain event in the interior of Viti Levu as
reported from Nausori Highlands and upper Sigatoka.

From the 15

to 21

a high pressure system extended a

ridge over the southwestern areas of the group maintaining
east to northeast wind flow over the country.

A trough developed to the east of Fiji on the 21

and subse-

quently moved over the Lau Group before becoming slow
moving on the 24

near Kadavu. This trough significant rain-

fall in central division with Nausori and Tokotoko recording
153.7mm and 115mm respectively on the 24

On the 27

, another trough of low pressure developed

southwest of Rotuma and moved towards Vanua Levu. This
trough moved across the Group over the remaining days of
the month, bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms especially
about the interior and eastern parts of the main islands.

Rotuma was continuously wet throughout the month as the
SPCZ traversed the island on most days. Significant rainfall
was recorded on the 2

(76.4mm), 4

(59.7mm) and 17

(66.8mm) when the SPCZ was most active and near to the
island.

WEATHER PATTERNS

RAINFALL IN LAST THREE MONTHS, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY

The Rainfall Outlook from September to November in
August issue was for rainfall to vary around average across
the country with moderate confidence. It has been ob-
served that there has been an increasing trend from aver-
age to below average rainfall in October and from below
average to well below average in November. This trend
has placed several sites in the below average category.

Out of the sixteen sites that reported in time for this sum-
mary, six sites received below average, seven received
average and three received above average rainfall in the
past three months.

Temperatures
Hot and humid conditions prevailed that resulted in above
average day time temperatures at all sites except at Nadi

Airport which recorded 0.5

C below average.

The highest positive departures from normal were at Viwa
Island (1.8°C), Levuka (1.4°C) and Monasavu (1.3

C).

Night-time temperatures were generally near average to
above average across the country except for Matei and
Lautoka Mill that experienced below average temperatures
with a departure of 0.6°C and 0.2°C below normal
respectively.

Relative Humidity at 0900hrs were below average at many
sites across the country. The greatest positive departures
from normal were recorded at Levuka (19.9%),Rotuma
(2.6%) and greatest negative departures were recorded at
Vatukoula (6.7%), Labasa Airport (5.6%) and Navua(5.3%).

Page 2

Fiji Islands Climate Summary

November 2006

TABLE 1 : SHOWING RAINFALL FROM SEPTEMBER TO NOVEMBER 2006

Station

Actual

Rainfall

(mm)

Rainfall in the last three

months (Below average,

average or above average)

No. of Rain

days in September

(% of total rain)

No. of Rain

days in October

(% of total rain)

No. of Rain

days in November

(% of total rain)

Penang Mill

222.2

Below Average

9 (36)

15 (48)

11 (15)

Monasavu Dam

1636.1

Above Average

20 (25)

28 (49)

26 (26)

Vatukoula Mine

210.5

Below Average

8 (27)

7 (45)

5 (28)

Rarawai Mill, Ba

320.6

Average

6 (18)

10 (38)

7 (45)

Yasawa-I-Rara

Viwa Island

204.4

Average

10 (35)

11 (36)

4 (29)

Lautoka (FSC Res.)

279.5

Average

8 (18)

11 (41)

6 (40)

Nadi Airport

327.4

Average

9 (27)

15 (36)

9 (37)

Nacocolevu, Sigatoka

Data is missing from Nacocolevu in months of September (4th),November (1st,3rd,4th) Yasawa-I-Rara data missing for October (28th,30th)

and whole of November.

Tokotoko, Navua

846.6

Average

17 (43)

25 (31)

18 (26)

Laucala Bay, Suva

766.5

Average

19 (58)

22 (30)

20 (12)

Nausori Airport

880.8

Above Average

20 (37)

23 (32)

20 (31)

Nabouwalu

256.2

Below Average

(34)

(38)

17 (28)

Labasa Airport

211.3

Below Average

7 (35)

10 (26)

8 (39)

Savusavu Airport

Udu Point

367.2

Below Average

14 (43)

16 (41)

16 (16)

Matei Airport

Matei data missing for 6th October and Savusavu Airfield data missing for 12th,17th and 25th November.

Lakeba Is.

178.9

Below Average

8 (39)

14 (29)

11 (32)

Matuku Is.

Ono-I-Lau Is.

288.9

Average

12 (48)

8 (41)

6 (11)

Vunisea, Kadavu

639.8

Above Average

17 (23)

23 (34)

21 (43)

Rotuma

1163.6

Above Average

24 (19)

23 (42)

23 (39)

Matuku data missing for September (20th, 21st & 29th) and for October (26th & 30th).

TABLE 2 : NEW CLIMATE RECORDS

Element

Station

Observed

(record)

Rank

Previous (record)

Year

Records

Began

Mean Mly Max Temp

Levuka

30.3 ° C

New High

29.7 ° C

1994

1984

Figure A

Figure B

Figure C

Page 3

Fiji Islands Climate Summary

November 2006

Nadi Airport - Temperature & Rainfall Records for the last 13 Months

(November 2005 - November 2006)

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

m onth

l
s

i
u

100

200

300

400

500

l
l
i
me

t
r
e

M o nthly To tal
Rainfall

Lo ng-Term
Rainfall
A verages
(1971-2000)

M o nthly
A verage
M aximum
Temperature

M o nthly
A verage
M inimum
Temperature

Labasa Airfield - Temperature & Rainfall Records for the last 13 Months

(November 2005 - November 2006)

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

m onth

r
ee celsiu

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

i
ll

t
r
e

M o nthly To tal
Rainfall

Lo ng-Term
Rainfall
A verages
(1971-2000)

M o nthly
A verage
M aximum
Temperature

M o nthly
A verage
M inimum
Temperature

Laucala Bay/Suva - Temperature & Rainfall Records for the last 13 Months

(November 2005 - November 2006)

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

m onth

l
s

i
us

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

l
l
i
me

t
r
e

M o nthly
To tal Rainfall

Lo ng-Term
Rainfall
A verages
(1971-2000)

M o nthly
A verage
M aximum
Temperature

M o nthly
A verage
M inimum
Temperature

Page 4

Fiji Islands Climate Summary

November 2006

PRELIMINARY CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 2006

For all correspondences please contact: The Director, Fiji Meteorological Service, Private Mail Bag, NAP0351, Nadi Airport, Fiji Islands.

Email: fms@met.gov.fj.

This Fiji Islands Climate Summary is prepared for rapid dissemination as soon as possible following the end of the month. The Fiji Meteoro-

logical Service (FMS) wishes to advise its client to use this information with extreme care as these is base on preliminary and un-quality con-

trolled data available at the time of publication. FMS further wishes to advice that it will not be responsible for any liability for loses incurred

through the use of this bulletin and its contents. Any person wishing to re-print any information provided in this bulletin should seek confir-

mation and permission from the Director of Meteorology.

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON 2006/2007

A moderate El Niño is now established in the region. With the prediction for it to strengthen further and continue into early
2007, means continuation of suppressed rainfall for Fiji and a shift towards below average rainfall is expected in the coming
three months. On the other hand, it should be noted that the country is approaching peak of the wet season rainfall activity
is expected to be generally high. Given the two conflicting scenarios, it is likely that rainfall will fluctuate across the country
with a predicted trend towards below average rainfall likely to continue. The occurrence of a tropical depression or tropical
cyclone would certainly change the rainfall distribution. The confidence level of this prediction is moderate to high.

More detailed climate predictions are in the “Fiji Islands Climate Outlook” which will be released during the mid-
dle of the month.

RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR FIJI ISLANDS - DECEMBER 2006 TO FEBRUARY 2007

PRELIMINARY CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA FOR MONTH 11 , 2006 : SUMMARY FOR DAYS 1 TO 30

RAINFALL AIR TEMPERATURES SUNSHINE
TOTAL RAIN MAX. AVERAGE DAILY EXTREME TOTAL
* DAYS FALL MAX. # MIN. # MAX. MIN. *
MM % + MM ON C C C C C ON C ON HRS %

NADI AIRPORT 120 91 9 105 14 30.6 -0.5 22.1 0.3 33.0 18 19.5 5 232 104
SUVA/LAUCALA BAY 89 36 20 31 24 30.5 1.2 23.6 0.8 32.4 28 20.6 8 214 127
NACOCOLEVU 146 107 6 115 30 31.5 1.1 21.3 0.4 33.1 29 18.5 8 192 103
ROTUMA 457 162 23 76 2 30.4 0.1 25.0 0.5 32.0 30 23.4 3 147 75
VIWA 59 56 4 23 23 32.1 1.8 24.9 0.5 34.5 28 23.5 6
UDU POINT 58 29 16 15 14 30.5 0.4 24.4 0.7 32.7 27 22.6 4
LABASA AIRFIELD 82 45 8 46 28 31.9 0.5 21.5 0.3 34.0 23 17.0 20
NABOUWALU 71 41 17 36 3 29.8 0.9 24.0 0.6 31.7 28 22.0 10
SAVUSAVU AIRFIELD 121 64 12 42 24 29.4 0.0 23.2 0.6 31.4 27 21.0 1
MATEI AIRFIELD 61 26 25 20 3 29.1 0.2 22.5 -0.6 31.5 1 18.0 4
YASAWA-I-RARA No Readings Available
VATUKOULA 59 39 5 22 28 32.4 0.7 21.4 0.8 34.1 12 19.3 5
MONASAVU 427 95 26 74 3 25.3 1.3 17.6 0.1 27.9 27 15.0 3
NAUSORI AIRPORT 277 113 20 154 24 29.3 0.5 22.5 0.7 31.8 25 19.3 7
NAVUA/TOKOTOKO 222 78 18 115 24 28.8 0.3 22.1 0.4 31.0 27 19.0 8
ST. JOHNS COLLEGE 40 27 8 11 29 30.3 1.4 23.5 0.2 32.5 19 21.0 29
LAKEBA 57 40 11 42 14 29.1 0.3 23.7 0.6 31.1 23 19.6 10
MATUKU 113 89 14 19 28 29.4 0.7 23.9 1.0 31.7 27 21.5 30
VUNISEA 275 188 21 175 29 28.7 0.3 23.4 1.4 32.1 27 21.2 5
ONO-I-LAU 32 28 6 16 28 28.6 1.0 22.6 0.0 33.2 21 20.4 5
BA/RARAWAI MILL 143 99 7 47 14 32.6 0.7 20.8 0.0 34.1 12 17.2 5
LAUTOKA AES 113 83 6 64 15 30.6 0.1 22.5 -0.2 32.0 28 19.4 5
PENANG MILL 34 21 11 11 3 30.8 1.1 23.3 0.3 33.1 24 21.4 10

The South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season formally started on the 01st of November 2006 and will continue till end of April
2007. The emergence of an El Niño event and its persistence into early 2007 should significantly affect tropical cyclone
frequency and distribution in the South Pacific region.

The Season’s second cyclone formed near the Solomon Islands and was named “TC Yani” on 22nd November. “TC Yani”
lasted for almost 3 days and attained maximum sustained winds of about 75knots around the centre. Although Rennell Is-
lands in the Solomon's was put on alert by Brisbane TCWC, it did not affect any land areas as it confined mainly to the
ocean with no threat to the Fiji Group. “TC Yani” was downgraded to a tropical depression later on 24th November.

Fiji on average experiences 10 to 15 tropical cyclones in a decade with 2 to 4 of these being severe. This means that on
average, 1 to 2 cyclones per season can affect Fiji. The chance for a hit are high during neutral and El Niño conditions and
there is an increased risk of a cyclone affecting Fiji this season. Since 1995, the only two tropical cyclones, Gavin (1997)
and Ami (2003) affected the country severely. Therefore the chance for a big one is rather high!

Based on the historical records, nine

cyclone have affected Fiji in December since 1969/70 season. The years (cyclones)

were 1970 (Priscilla), 1973(Lottie), 1977(Anne), 1978(Fay), 1986(Raja), 1988(Eseta) 1992 (Joni, Nina and Kina), and 1998
(Cora). Out of these, 60% of them were hurricanes, 30% Storms and 10% gales.

As the country is getting closer to the peak months of cyclone season and given the trend of more extreme events occur-
ring in different parts of the world, one should always prepare for the worst one yet to come.