Microsoft PowerPoint - SP Climate Variability

South Pacific Climate

Variability

Pacific Communities and Climate Forum

(International Red Cross Society)

Pacific Theological College, Suva

November, 2007

Ravind Kumar

Climate Services Division

Outline

Drivers of Climate System

Broad Scale SP Climate Features

Climate Fluctuations in SP

Climate Extremes in the SP

Climate Variability and ENSO in SP

Sources of Climate Information

•The climate of Earth results from complex interactions among externally applied

parameters, like the distribution of insolation, and internal interactions among

atmosphere, ocean, ice and land.

•Greenhouse effect

•Hydrological cycles

•Atmosphere and ocean heat, water and gas exchange

•Life forms

Drivers of Climate

Energy Balance

surplus at the equator and deficient at the poles

Transport Process

Winds

Ocean Currents

Coupled Interaction

Among Land, Atmosphere and Ocean

Broad Scale SP Climate Features

Inter

tropical Convergence Zone

South Pacific Convergence Zone

Troughs and Fronts

High and Low Pressure Systems

Depressions and Tropical Cyclones

ITCZ and SPCZ

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

–

August 2007

Australia

South

America

ITCZ

SPCZ

The Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation

• Climate shifts

driven by
Interdecadal
Pacific Oscillation
(IPO)

• This is an ‘ENSO’

like feature of the
climate system,
but on longer
time scales

• The IPO operates

on time scales of
one to three
decades

MJO

Named after Ronald

Madden and Paul Julian

30-60 or 40-50 day

oscillation

Main intra-annual

fluctuation in the tropics

Most evident in the

Indian and Western

Pacific Ocean

Associated with

cloudiness and

convective activity

Also triggers TC’s

•

Year-to-year variability between El Niño and La Niña

• A 3 - 5 year climate cycle of global importance driven

out of the Pacific Basin

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation

A see-saw of air

pressure between

the eastern

equatorial Pacific

and the Australian-

Indonesian region.

Irregular cycle

averaging – 4

years.

3D interactions of

the atmosphere

and ocean.

SOI – index for

measuring the

strength and phase

– gradient between

the Darwin and

Tahiti.

Climate Extremes in the SP

Drought

Climate Variability and ENSO

Climate patterns fluctuate every 2

7 years time

scale

Trade winds weakens

SSTs become 1

C warmer than normal in

the central to eastern Pacific

SPCZ migrates to north and east of its normal

position

Suppressed rainfall in many parts of the region

Droughts normally in the South West Pacific

Warmer than usual temperatures during wet

season

TC formation and movement is altered

Normal Situation

Walker Circulation

Differences

in SST

between

the east

and west of

the

equatorial

Pacific

cause

vertical

circulation

of air.

Air flows

west across

tropics of

the Pacific-

SE trade

winds.

La Nina Influence TC in SWP

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Australia

New Zealand

Fiji

New Caledonia

Vanuatu

Solomon Is

Pitcairn

Samoa

Tonga

Niue

E Kiribati

Papua New Guinea

N Cook Is

S Cook Is

Society Is

W Kiribati

Line Is

Tuvalu

Marquesas Is

Austral Is

Marshall Is

Rawaki Is

Tokelau Is

Nauru

Caroline Is

Tuamotu Is

EQUATOR

Wallis
& Futuna

El Nino Influence TC in SWP

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Australia

New Zealand

Fiji

New Caledonia

Vanuatu

Solomon Is

Pitcairn

Samoa

Tonga

Niue

E Kiribati

Papua New Guinea

N Cook Is

S Cook Is

Society Is

W Kiribati

Line Is

Tuvalu

Marquesas Is

Austral Is

Marshall Is

Rawaki Is

Tokelau Is

Nauru

Caroline Is

Tuamotu Is

EQUATOR

Wallis
& Futuna

Tropical Cyclones

–

All Seasons

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Australia

New Zealand

Fiji

New Caledonia

Vanuatu

Solomon Is

Pitcairn

Samoa

Tonga

Niue

E Kiribati

Papua New Guinea

N Cook Is

S Cook Is

Society Is

W Kiribati

Line Is

Tuvalu

Marquesas Is

Austral Is

Marshall Is

Rawaki Is

Tokelau Is

Nauru

Caroline Is

Tuamotu Is

EQUATOR

Wallis
& Futuna

Sources of Climate Information

in the Pacific

National Pacific Meteorological Services

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)

Pacific ENSO Applications Centre (PEAC), Hawaii

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Australia

International Research Institute for Climate and Society

United Kingdom Meteorological Office

Climate Predictions Centre (NOAA)

European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF)

Meteo

France

Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS)

Types of Information

Local climate information, climate summary, climate outlook,

ENSO Update, etc.

FMS

ENSO and Global climate forecasts

ECMWF

Global climate analysis, global climate forecasts, ENSO

forecasts, etc.

CPC

Global climate and ENSO forecasts

UKMO

Summaries of Global Model forecasts, rainfall forecasts for some

Pacific countries

IRI

ENSO Wrap

up, Seasonal Climate Reference Materials, Seasonal

Outlooks, TC outlooks, etc

BOM

Observations from North Pacific and Samoa Outlook

PEAC

Background on ENSO and TC climatology,

ICU

, Tele

conferencing, seasonal Outlooks, etc.

NIWA

Climate observations, summaries, Seasonal Outlooks, etc.

NHMS

Climate Information

Organization

Island Climate Update

ICU

Project Goal

– To reduce vulnerability of Pacific

Island countries to natural disasters caused by

climate variability and extreme climate-related

events

Objective

– To improve the effectiveness of

planning processes in climate-sensitive sectors in

the Pacific, including disaster management

agencies, public utilities such as water and power

supply as well as health, agriculture, aquaculture

and tourism, through increasing access to

accurate climate information

How

- monthly publication of a 3-month climate

outlook for PICs

Production and Contributors

Publisher: NIWA
Supported by: NZAID, SOPAC, SPREP

Contributors:
- Fiji Met Services
- Samoa Met Division
- Other PIC Met Services
- WMO
- BOM
- Meteo France – NC, FP
- IRI
- NOAA CPC
- NOAA NWS

Product and Services

Regional Climate Review

Regional Climate Outlooks

Soil moisture

ENSO Update

MJO Update

Tropical Cyclone update

Featured articles