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CARE and the International Institute for
Sustainable Development (IISD) collabo-
rated to pilot the use of an innovative tool
for participatory analysis of changing rain-
fall patterns. The rain calendar tool is
designed to gather community perceptions
of rainfall patterns, to determine the
parameters for good, average, and bad
years in terms of rainfall, and to provide a
platform for discussing risk management
strategies to adapt to changing rainfall
patterns.

How to facilitate the tool

The tool essentially combines a historical
timeline with a seasonal calendar.
• Participants are asked to plot rainfall and
temperature conditions experienced over
five or more years.
• They plot the timing, that is, the months
or seasons (and where possible, the specific
weeks) during which rain fell in their local-
ity. They also plot the amount of rainfall
received under the categories of
little/below normal, average/normal, or
heavy/above normal rainfall.

• In the same way, information on temper-
ature level (normal, high, cold, very cold)
and timing is plotted for each year.
• Participants also describe the nature,
duration, distribution, and effects of rain-
fall and temperature conditions experi-
enced on their livelihoods.
• Where meteorological weather records
and other relevant reports are available at
the local level, these are compared to the
information provided by communities for
validation.

Case study: examining the vulnerability
of pastoralists to climate change in
Ethiopia

CARE, IISD, and Save the Children UK
used the tool on a pilot basis in a collabo-
rative research project in May and June
2009. The project examined the vulnera-
bility to climate change of pastoral commu-
nities in the Somali and Borana regions of
Ethiopia. Approximately 24 focus groups
disaggregated by gender and age were
involved in developing rain calendars.

In Kalabaydh village (Shinile district,

by CYNTHIA AWUOR and ANNE HAMMILL

Rain calendars: a tool
for understanding
changing rainfall
patterns and effects
on livelihoods

Awuor and Hammill

150

Somali zone), the rain calendar helped
community groups to compare weather
conditions (rainfall and temperature) in
terms of quantity, quality, and distribution
during the main seasons (Gu and Karan)
across past years (Table 1). The calendars
showed that, in 2009, daytime tempera-
tures in the Gu season (March to May)

were the warmest experienced so far in the
last five years. They also showed local vari-
ations in rainfall: some locations within the
area receive comparatively higher rainfall
than others in given seasons, and this
results in a higher concentration of live-
stock in such areas and the potential for the
rapid spread of livestock diseases. The

Table 1: Rain calendar, Kalabaydh Village, Shinile District, Ethiopia, May and June 2009

MONTHS

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Rainy Seasons

Gu Season Karan Season

YEARS

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Key:

** Light rain showers X no rain normal rain heavy rain

normal temp. high temp. cold temp. very cold temp.

R = rain
T = temperature

151

Rain calendars: a tool for understanding changing rainfall patterns and effects on livelihoods

calendars also recorded other major events
that affected the lives of communities
across the rain calendar years for example,
years when they experienced severe
droughts as well as years when they had
good rains, or huge losses of livestock due
to diseases and drought.

The rain calendar was used to facilitate

discussions and reflections on:
• Other factors that contribute to the prob-
lems communities experience, such as
population growth and pressure on
resources.
• Current coping strategies such as feeding

livestock on relief food, herd diversification,
purchase of grain, and the sale of firewood
and charcoal were also discussed. Commu-
nities reflected on the sustainability and
effectiveness of their coping strategies, and
articulated their needs in terms of the types
of support they require to help them adapt to
longer-term changes, and reduce the nega-
tive impacts of various coping strategies. For
example, the Kalabaydh community noted
that the government should provide physical
and financial resources for the construction
of water reservoirs, and tap the available
ground water and distribute it in the area.

Notes on rainfall and temperature

Two days of rain showers in the third week of May.

High temperatures. Temperatures were warmer than in 2008.

In the

Gu season, the rains were near normal and were better than in 2009. In the Karan season, light rain

showers fell for 1 to 2 days. However, some pocket areas received

Karan rains for more than 2 days. The 2008

rains were insufficient. Most livestock were not returned to the area due to insufficient pasture. In pocket
areas that received more rain, the community was advised not to concentrate livestock there due to the
spread of diseases.

In January and February, days were very warm and nights were cold. Temperatures increased in March and
April and were very high in May and June. Temperatures began to decrease in September. October was the
coolest month.

The rain was of little quantity. It was poorly distributed and fell in a few areas in both the

Gu and Karan

seasons.

Between March and June, temperatures increased though they were cooler than in 2009. From July to
September, temperatures were very warm during the day and the nights were windy. From October to
December, temperatures were moderate. There were huge livestock deaths in 2007and 2006.

The rainfall was good in March and April. In August and September, the rains were normal. An unknown
disease affected camels in August and September. Other livestock were also affected by a disease that led to
miscarriages.

There was normal temperature all year.

There was very good rain in both the

Gu and Karan seasons.

Temperatures were warmer than in the previous year (2004).

Awuor and Hammill

152

Strengths and limitations of rain
calendars

The rain calendar is a simple, user-friendly
participatory tool. It takes a relatively short
time to apply it, and it doesn’t require a
high level of expertise to use.

The rain calendar provides useful infor-

mation that can be used to compare
weather conditions for specific sites across
seasons and years. It helps document
changes in the predictability of rainy and
dry seasons, based on the onset and cessa-
tion. It also clarifies the consequences of
the changes on livelihoods. However, it
may not help in providing patterns of
weather conditions.

Since the rain calendar is a tool that is

useful at local level, it is important to accu-
rately translate information into and from
local languages when applying the tool in
the field. It is also important for facilitators
to be clear on the specific types and param-
eters of information to gather, and use a
standard template (including symbols) for
recording gathered information. This
makes it easier to understand conditions
experienced at a glance, and harmonise
such information.

The rain calendar provides qualitative

weather information for specific locations.
It helps project practitioners and
researchers to better understand how
community members evaluate their
weather conditions, and how changes in
these conditions affect their livelihoods.
From the pilot study, it was noted that
communities’ interpretation of good or bad
seasons incorporates weather as well as
other conditions such as:
• quantities of crop yields;
• pasture availability;
• livestock productivity;
• occurrence of abnormal livestock and
human diseases and mortality;
• duration of migrations (which could be
due to bad weather, political conflicts etc.);
and
• access to markets.

For example, the group of older men in

Kalabaydh village noted that over the last
10 years, it has been getting warmer and
drier in the area. Consequently, livestock
numbers and quantities of milk produced
have reduced over this time. The older
women mentioned that they constructed
semi-permanent houses in 2004 when
there was plenty of rain and abundant, good
quality grass. They also noted that 2007 was
a bad year because it was very dry in both
the Gu and Karan seasons, their family
members had to migrate livestock to
Oromiya, and they suffered loss of some
livestock due to camel-rustling in Oromiya.

It is therefore important for the facili-

tators to guide discussions in a way that
will bring out precise information on
weather conditions separately from other
conditions that affect communities. For
example, based on the information
provided by communities, facilitators
should ask follow-up as well as guiding
questions that would bring out additional
and specific information sought for the
purposes of developing the rain calendar.

The rain calendar relies on participants’

collective memory. It was noted that the
precision and accuracy of information
provided diminishes after five years. There-
fore, the rain calendar cannot be used to
determine changes in trends of weather
conditions for the specific locations in
which it is applied.

The information obtained through the

rain calendar can be augmented with
larger-scale quantitative meteorological
data for project planning and implementa-
tion.