Microsoft Word - TD1045-TCP44.doc

INTRODUCTION

About 80 tropical cyclones form annually over warm tropical oceans. When they develop

and attain an intensity with surface wind speed exceeding 118 km/h, they are called hurricanes in the
western hemisphere, typhoons in the western North Pacific region and severe tropical cyclones,
tropical cyclones or similar names in other regions.

Such tropical cyclones are among the most devastating of all natural hazards. Their

potential for wrecking havoc caused by their violent winds, torrential rainfall and associated storm
surges, floods, tornadoes and mud slides is exacerbated by the length and width of the areas they
affect, their severity, frequency of occurrence and the vulnerability of the impacted areas. Every year
several tropical cyclones cause sudden-onset disasters of varying harshness, with loss of life, human
suffering, destruction of property, severe disruption of normal activities and set-back to social and
economic advances.

However, a particularly important aspect of tropical cyclones, as distinct from most other

natural hazards, is the availability of operational systems for monitoring, forecasting and warning of all
tropical cyclones, everywhere in the world, as a basis for preparedness action and, hence, disaster
mitigation.

As a result of international cooperation and coordination, and with the aid of meteorology

and modern technology, such as satellites, weather radars and computers, all tropical cyclones
around the globe are now being monitored from their early stages of formation and throughout their
lifetime. Five centres designated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as Regional
Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) and located in La Réunion, Miami, Nadi (Fiji), New Delhi
and Tokyo, as well as other centres of national Meteorological Services carry out these activities.
These centres also provide forecasts on the behaviour of tropical cyclones, their movement and
changes in intensity and on associated phenomena - principally storm surges and flash floods.

Timely official warnings for national territory are contained in releases issued by the national

Meteorological Services for dissemination to all those who are threatened. The activities are
coordinated at the global and regional levels by the WMO through its World Weather Watch and
Tropical Cyclone Programmes.

AVAILABILITY ON THE INTERNET OF ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL CYCLONES EVERYWHERE

Prior to the use of information on each server, the relevant disclaimer should be viewed.

Latest advisories on current tropical cyclones/hurricanes/typhoons

The five tropical cyclone RSMCs, together with six tropical cyclone warning centres having

regional responsibility, provide advisories and bulletins with up-to-date first-level basic meteorological
information on all tropical cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons everywhere in the world. The first-level
basic information comprises reliable information from a clearly defined source on the tropical cyclone's
location and size and its present and forecast movement and intensity. Where available to the RSMC,
summaries of the official national warnings may be included in their advisory.

For the convenience of those with access to the Internet, a central WMO website is linked to

all these advisories, giving global coverage year round.

To obtain the latest advisory with first level basic meteorological information on tropical

cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons anywhere in the world:

Go to:

http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/TCP/rsmcs.html

World Meteorological Organization

World Weather Watch

Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP)

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On the map, click on your area of interest or identify the name of the RSMC or the warning

centre shown for that area and click on the listings below.

(Insert map with Regions)

List of tropical cyclone RSMCs

I and II Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific Oceans:

RSMC Miami - Hurricane Center/NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, USA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/products.html

Western North Pacific Ocean and South China Sea:

RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center/Japan Meteorological Agency.

http://ddb.kishou.go.jp/typhoon/cyclone/cyclone.html

Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea:

RSMC - tropical cyclones New Delhi/India Meteorological Department.

http://www.imd.ernet.in/services/cyclone/cyclone-warning-services.htm

South-West Indian Ocean:

RSMC La Réunion - Tropical Cyclone Centre/Météo-France.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/reunion/cyclone_cart/sous_panneaux.html

South-West Pacific Ocean:

RSMC Nadi - Tropical Cyclone Centre/Fiji Meteorological Service.

http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html

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List of tropical cyclone warning centres with regional responsibility

III

Central North Pacific Ocean:

Central Pacific Hurricane Center - Honolulu/NOAA/NWS, USA.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/pr/hnl/cphc/pages/cphc.shtml

VII

South-East Indian Ocean:

TCWC - Perth/Bureau of Meteorology (Western Australia region), Australia.

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa

VIII

Arafura Sea and the Gulf of Carpenteria:

TCWC - Darwin/Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nt/inside/cyclone/cyclone.shtml

IX Coral

Sea:

TCWC - Brisbane/Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/gld/cyclone.shtml

Solomon Sea and Gulf of Papua:

TCWC - Port Moresby/National Weather Service, Papua New Guinea.

(to be established soon)

XII Tasman

Sea:

TCWC - Wellington/Meteorological Service of New Zealand, Ltd.

http://www.metservice.co.nz/forecasts/high_seas.asp

Tropical cyclones do not occur in other regions.

GMS: geostationary meteorological satellite

(courtesy: JMA Japan)

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Active national warnings of tropical cyclones/hurricanes/typhoons

The national Meteorological Services (in some countries called the national Weather

Services or similar titles) of countries affected by tropical cyclones provide advisories and bulletins
with information and forecasts of current tropical cyclones which are threatening or could threaten the
country. The advisories include, where applicable, official warnings of the impact of tropical cyclones
on their national territory, local areas and coastal waters.

The central WMO website is linked to all official tropical cyclone warnings available on the

Internet.

If you are concerned with safety of life and property in a specific area, and protection from

the destructive impact of impending storms:

Select, from the list under national Weather Services, the country of interest (if shown on the

list):

National Weather Services of WMO Members affected

by tropical cyclones and equipped with Web Servers

Australia, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria
Canada, Meteorological Service of Canada
China, The China Meteorological Administration
Colombia, Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environment Studies
Costa Rica, Instituto Meteorológico Nacional
Cuba, Instituto de Meteorología
Fiji, Fiji Meteorological Service
France, Météo-France, Toulouse
Hong Kong, China, Hong Kong Observatory
India, India Meteorological Department
Indonesia, Indonesian Meteorological and Geophysical Agency
Japan, Japan Meteorological Agency
Republic of Korea, Korea Meteorological Administration
Macao, China, Serviços Meteorológicos de Macau
Malaysia, Malaysian Meteorological Service
Mexico, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional
New Zealand, Meteorological Service of New Zealand, Ltd., Wellington
Oman, Department of Meteorology
Pakistan, Pakistan Meteorological Department
Panama, Hidro Meteorología, ETESA, República de Panamá
Philippines, PAGASA (The Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical & Astronomical Services Adm.)
Samoa, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Meteorology
Seychelles, Seychelles Meteorological Service
Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore
Solomon Islands, Solomon Islands Meteorological Service
South Africa, Weather Bureau, Pretoria
Swaziland, Swaziland Meteorological Service
Thailand, Meteorological Department of Thailand
USA, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland
Venezuela, Dirección de Hidrología y Meteorología
Zimbabwe, Department of Meteorological Services

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MONITORING, FORECASTING AND WARNING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

The monitoring, forecasting and warning of tropical cyclones are carried out within the

framework of the WMO's World Weather Watch (WWW), which is a unique achievement in
international cooperation. The operation of the Programme is based on the fundamental concept that
each of the approximately 185 participating countries and territories, which are Members of WMO,
undertakes according to its means, to meet certain responsibilities in the agreed global scheme so
that all countries may benefit from the consolidated efforts. The main purpose of the WWW is to
ensure that the national Meteorological Service of each Member has access to the information it
needs to provide effective services.

The WWW has three main components: the Global Observing, Telecommunications and

Data-processing Systems - GOS, GTS and GDPS. About 10,000 land-based stations, 8,000 ships
and other marine stations, and in the order of 3,000 aircraft, together with 8 geostationary and polar-
orbiting meteorological satellites of the composite GOS measure or observe the meteorological
elements and provide the data needed for analyzing and forecasting the weather and meteorological
phenomena.

The GTS, the arteries and veins of the WWW, is a worldwide system for the rapid exchange

of these data and of processed information, including analyses and forecasts, which are produced by
the GDPS. The latter component comprises a network of three World Meteorological Centres, WMCs,
and 34 Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres, RSMCs, each with specified tasks and roles.
These include the supplying of products and guidance for the third group of centres, the national
Meteorological Services which have the responsibility for providing weather services, in particular
severe weather warning, to meet operational needs.

Five of the RSMCs are directly concerned with tropical cyclones. These RSMCs carry out

monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones and issue information for the international community
including the international media, in addition to providing advisory information and guidance to
national Meteorological Services. The provision of tropical cyclone warnings for national territory and
coastal waters is, basically, a national responsibility. Such official warnings are contained in
advisories issued by the national Meteorological Service.

There has been significant improvement in the monitoring and forecasting of tropical

cyclones over the years resulting from developments of the WWW and advances in technology and
related fields. Examples are:

•

The network of geostationary and polar-orbiting meteorological satellites and other
satellites providing meteorological information which enable improved and continuous
monitoring, especially over data-sparse ocean areas, from the early stages of formation
of the tropical cyclone;

•

Advances in the capabilities of meteorological satellites, providing higher-resolution
imagery, measurement of additional parameters such as water vapour, sea surface
temperature and cloud motion vectors at various altitudes, and grid point values for
ingestion in numerical prediction models;

•

Satellite-based communications providing links with greater reliability and higher speed;

•

Technological developments in super computers, other large computers and PCs
(Personal Computers) capable of handling greater volumes of data at faster speeds and
with improved affordability, as needed for many activities from numerical weather
prediction - NWP, to more routine activities of the operational services;

•

Scientific advances in the understanding and modelling (including NWP) of tropical
cyclones and their environment;

•

Technological advances in instruments and equipment such as Doppler cyclone
monitoring radar which gives radar imagery and also the wind field in tropical cyclones;

•

Hurricane reconnaissance aircraft.

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TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCs

Five centres, each operated on a cooperative basis by its country's national Meteorological

Service, and located in La Réunion, Miami, Nadi (Fiji), New Delhi and Tokyo, have been formally
designated by the WMO as Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) with activity
specialization in tropical cyclone analysis, tracking and forecasting. They have specific assigned roles
and international and regional responsibilities under the WWW and the Tropical Cyclone Programmes.

The WMO's Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) promotes the development of regionally

coordinated systems to mitigate tropical cyclone disasters. The areas of activity range from the
application of meteorology, based on the WWW, and hydrology, through promotion of risk evaluations,
response to warnings and establishment of disaster prevention and preparedness measures.
Emphasis is placed on the provision of reliable forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity,
associated weather conditions and phenomena along with timely warnings, covering all tropical
cyclone prone areas. In this latter connection, each of the five regional bodies of the TCP has drawn
up an Operational Plan with the respective tropical cyclone RSMC as a core feature. The plans are
designed to ensure full coordination and, taking advantage of the high level of cooperation which has
been generated, to record the agreed comprehensive arrangements for operational meteorological
services to support tropical cyclone disaster mitigation.

The tropical cyclone RSMCs were selected on the basis of the unanimous proposals of the

TCP regional bodies, with participation of the Meteorological Services of all tropical cyclone-prone
countries in the particular region, the evaluation and certification, under the WWW by experts in
operational meteorology from many countries, of the facilities and capabilities of the centre to carry out
its role and the formal approval of the WMO's Executive Council.

The specialized functions of the tropical cyclone RSMCs are, principally, the detection,

monitoring and track and intensity forecasting of all tropical cyclones in its region, the provision of
these first level basic information to the international community including the international media and
the provision of real-time advisory information and guidance to the national Meteorological Services in
its region. Their functions also include responsibility for deciding when to assign names to tropical
cyclones, the training of tropical cyclone forecasters of the national Meteorological Services, preparing
operational performance statistics and annual summaries of tropical cyclone seasons, a central role in
tropical cyclone data archival, tropical cyclone research and involvement in activities for public
awareness of tropical cyclones. In practical terms, the series of the TCP's "Tropical Cyclone RSMCs
Technical Coordination Meetings" serves as an effective mechanism for inter-regional and overall
technical coordination of the programme.

Training of tropical cyclone forecasters from all tropical

cyclone regions at RSMC Miami - Hurricane Center

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Technical coordination meeting of the Directors of tropical cyclone RSMCs

All the tropical cyclone RSMCs have been designated by the International Civil Aviation

Organization as ICAO Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres with the task of providing specialized
tropical cyclone advisory services for the aviation community. These centres have also been
assigned a key role in the provision of information and warnings of tropical cyclones, through the
Global Maritime Distress and Safety System, for ships on the high seas and other marine interests in
tropical cyclone prone areas.

Each of the tropical cyclone RSMCs is co-located with and forms part of their National

Meteorological Centre, of Fiji, India and Japan, or the Regional Meteorological Service of
Météo-France in La Réunion or the USA National Weather Service's Tropical Prediction Center. All
are supported by their respective national Meteorological Service and have cooperative arrangements
with other Services and Institutions such as, for example, meteorological research facilities. All these
RSMCs have been upgrading their expertise, meteorological equipment, computer systems, scientific
knowledge and techniques and other facilities towards improvement of their services. The rate of
progress by RSMC Nadi was augmented by technical cooperation projects with Australia, Japan, New
Zealand, USA and other Members of WMO or groups of Members. These RSMCs all have highly
trained and well experienced staff and other facilities that have been described as state-of-the-art
meteorological equipment and computer systems.

For example, all tropical cyclone RSMCs have high speed satellite links to the GTS, real time

access to high resolution imagery and digital data from geostationary satellites and polar-orbiting
meteorological satellites, 10 cm cyclone monitoring radars and receive model outputs and forecasts
from numerical weather prediction models run on large high speed computers. All are highly
computerized with software to process satellite data (calibration, navigation, zoom, enhancement,
overlaying, etc.) and radar data (looping, merging, track analysis, rainfall quantification, etc.) message
switching, data display and analysis, forecast preparation, product delivery and even for more routine
functions. This allows automation and application of many techniques, speed and reliability in task
performance and time for tropical cyclone specialist staff to concentrate on tasks requiring their
knowledge and experience.

Each of the tropical cyclone RSMCs serves as a national tropical cyclone warning centre for

their respective country. All are continuing to further enhance their facilities and capabilities and to
provide more effective services to meet their national, regional and international commitments.

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WMO/TCP meeting to coordinate mitigation of tropical cyclone disasters in

the South Pacific and South-East Indian Ocean regions, held at RSMC Nadi

Some aspects related to the facilities and work of each of the tropical cyclone RSMCs are

briefly mentioned below.

RSMC La Réunion - Tropical Cyclone Centre

The main circuit, an umbilical cord for the centre is its high speed satellite link with the Central

Service of Météo-France in Toulouse. It permits access to all the databases of Météo-France and, in
particular, to the French (ARPEGE) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather
Forecasting) global models outputs.

The centre is equipped with MDD and DRS data reception station and system which allow

reception of products from the meteorological centres in Bracknell, Rome, Toulouse and collection of
data from numerous weather stations in its region. It receives real-time data from the European
geostationary satellite METEOSAT, the USA's TIROS polar orbiting satellites and the European
remote-sensing satellite.

Computer software, SYNERGIE, developed by Météo-France, facilitates the cross-analysis of

all available meteorological information and supports the work of the forecaster in many ways.

Cyclone track and intensity forecasting rely to a great extent on the numerical models outputs,

such as from the French ARPEGE series of global and limited area spectral models.

The centre provides training for cyclone forecasters in its region, including a biennial course

for Southern Hemisphere forecasters.

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RSMC Miami - Hurricane Center/USA National Hurricane Center

The centre has been carrying out several of its current functions over the past many years,

with continuing development of its facilities and improvement in its services, nationally and to the
regions it serves. In some respects, it has been a pioneer and leader in these fields.

Technologies supporting hurricane detection, monitoring, forecasting and warning by the

centre include:

•

USA-NOAA geostationary meteorological satellites GOES-E and GOES-W parked
normally over 75°W and 135°W, providing the RSMC with high-quality visible and infra-
red imagery at standard operational intervals of 30 minutes and possibility of updates as
frequently as every 5 minutes during hurricane warning situations;

•

USA-TIROS polar orbiting satellites;

•

Doppler radar network, most of which are installed by the USA National Weather Service
over national territory;

•

USA-aircraft reconnaissance of hurricanes in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
areas, including turbo-prop low altitude flights into hurricanes and the newer
Gulfstream IV high-altitude jet for measuring the steering currents on the periphery;

•

USA advanced computer/telecommunications weather interactive processing system,
AWIPS, to help forecasters analyse storms and prepare and disseminate forecasts and
warnings.

The centre relies on several techniques, mostly NWP, to prepare guidance to the forecasters

and it cooperates with research and operational activities within and outside NOAA in the further
development and testing of the models and techniques. It provides training for tropical cyclone
forecasters from all the tropical cyclone-prone regions.

RSMC Nadi - Tropical Cyclone Centre

One of the major features of the functions of the centre is the provision of not only information

and advisory services for its region, but of full tropical cyclone forecast and warning services for eight
countries and territories and special advisory services for two countries in its region.

Tropical cyclone alerts and warnings are issued in the form of Special Weather Bulletins at

least every six hours and usually at three-hourly intervals for warnings, to the national Meteorological
Services of the country under threat. Special Advisory Bulletins are issued to two countries at least
every six hours during threat of a tropical cyclone, to assist their national Meteorological Services in
preparing local warnings.

The centre receives high-resolution data in real-time from the Japanese GMS geostationary

meteorological satellite, the USA GOES-W geostationary and NOAA polar-orbiting meteorological
satellites.

The computer system installed, called Fiji Integrated Meteorological System, FIMS, is a

complete meteorological system comprising from data collection through forecast preparation to
product delivery. The communication network was the most recent available on the market in
architecture and design at the time of its installation in 1998. There is a direct high-speed link with the
WMC Melbourne and a planned direct link with WMC Washington.

The centre was moved into a new building in 1998 and has been utilizing the modernized

meteorological equipment and facilities since then.

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RSMC - tropical cyclones New Delhi

There are two peak periods for tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea areas,

the post-monsoon and the pre-monsoon months.

A Regional Telecommunications Hub on the GTS is co-located with the RSMC New Delhi. In

addition to meteorological data and products received on the GTS, the centre receives support from
the application program satellite imagery from the Indian INSAT geostationary satellite located over
the Indian Ocean. These data are used for the detection, analysis and tracking of tropical cyclones in
the region and also to assist in forecasting their movement and intensity.

The center applies all the standard techniques in tropical cyclone forecasting. NWP forecasts

are made using an advanced high-resolution multi-level primitive equation model run in operational
mode on the India Meteorological Department's super-computer system. The numerical guidance
provided by the model serves to enhance the degree of confidence in the synoptic forecasts.

Special attention is being given to storm surges associated with tropical cyclones in this

region, which constitute one of the world's foremost natural hazards, due to the shallow bathymetry
and the large range of the astronomical tide. The forecast track, size and intensity of the tropical
cyclone itself are of vital importance, in conjunction with numerical storm surge model output and
pre-computed nomograms for storm surge forecasting.

RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center

A Regional Telecommunications Hub on the Main Telecommunications Network of the GTS is

co-located with RSMC Tokyo.

The center operationally analyses the synoptic observations, data from the Japanese

geostationary meteorological satellite, GMS, which provides excellent coverage of the region, other
meteorological satellites and weather radars. Forecasts made operationally, particularly those for
longer periods up to 72 hours, rely heavily on the products of NWP models at the Japan
Meteorological Agency, JMA. The Typhoon Model (TYM) and the Global Spectral Model (GSM) are
used for the prediction of tropical cyclones. These advanced models are nevertheless under constant
revision. Forecast verification reveal a long-term trend of improving forecast and numerical guidance
for forecasters in track forecasts and in storm surge prediction.

The synoptic field and sea surface temperature distribution are taken into account, especially

for intensity forecasting. A new method of modifying numerical model output to get 48 hour and
72 hour intensity forecasts is planned for early implementation operationally.

RSMC Tokyo staff members serve as resource persons in international training seminars on

typhoon monitoring and forecasting, hosted by JMA for the benefit of other national Meteorological
Services in the typhoon region.

Training of typhoon

forecasters

(courtesy: RSMC Tokyo)

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TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRES WITH REGIONAL RESPONSIBILITY

The tropical cyclone warning centres with regional responsibility are operated by and are part

of the USA-NOAA National Weather Service's facility in Honolulu, Hawaii, the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology, the National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Meteorological Service of
New Zealand Ltd. Their functions include the detection, monitoring and track and intensity forecasting
of all tropical cyclones in their respective region and the provision of these first level basic information
to the international community, in addition to provision of local warnings to meet their national
responsibilities. Their functions also include assigning names to tropical cyclones forming within their
region. TCWC Port Moresby has responsibility for a comparatively small region in which only a few
tropical cyclones form, and for activities as outlined above, primarily the provision of local warning
services. The three Australian centres and the Honolulu centre are directly linked to WMC Melbourne
and WMC Washington respectively and are fully supported by their national Meteorological Service.
The Wellington centre is also fully supported by its national Meteorological Service. They provide,
additionally, information and warning for marine interests in their regions. TCWC Brisbane has been
designated as an ICAO Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre and provides specialized tropical cyclone
advisory services for the aviation community.

Radar imagery of a tropical cyclone

(courtesy: BOM, Australia)

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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

The provision of warnings of tropical cyclones and associated phenomena for national territory

and its coastal waters is, basically, a national responsibility.

The national Meteorological Services of countries affected by tropical cyclones provide

advisories and bulletins with information and forecasts of current tropical cyclones that are threatening
or could threaten their country. The advisories include, where applicable, official warnings of the
impact of tropical cyclones and of associated phenomena on national territory, including local areas,
communities and coastal waters.

The facilities, equipment and staff of national Meteorological Services vary widely from

country to country. Some have a wide range of modern and sophisticated facilities and highly trained
and experienced personnel, some others do not. Nearly all the Services are connected to the GTS
and receive at least a significant amount of data from the GOS and products from the GDPS. All the
Services of these Members that are affected by tropical cyclones receive information, advice and
guidance from the relevant tropical cyclone RSMC. Very nearly all of the Services have facilities to
enable reception of information directly from meteorological satellites, at least limited low-resolution
data.

In the few exceptional cases where so needed, tropical cyclone warnings for a country or

territory are issued under special arrangements by the relevant RSMC or by a neighbouring national
Meteorological Service.

Thus tropical cyclone warning services are being provided for all countries and territories

which are affected.

The official warnings are included in advisories and bulletins which are issued, in general, by

the National Meteorological Centre. In the cases of a few large countries, such as Australia, China,
India and USA, they are issued by area tropical cyclone warning centres of the national Meteorological
Service.

The detailed arrangements and form of the warning services vary from country to country.

Often an "alert" is raised about 48 hours ahead of the onset of the tropical cyclone and a specific
warning phase usually commences in time to give about 24 hours advance notice.

Up-to-date reliable information on current tropical cyclones, forecasts of their tracks and

intensities, and warnings of the impact of these cyclones and associated phenomena, form together
the foundation of a disaster mitigation system. Combined with effective response by all concerned
and the appropriate pre-arranged disaster prevention and preparedness measures, such as tested
evacuation plans, they can and do save numerous lives and substantially reduce the devastation that
could be caused by tropical cyclones around the globe every year.

Widespread dissemination of these information and warnings in real-time, in which the media

and particularly the electronic media play an important role, to a population which is aware of the
dangers posed by these natural hazards and of the protection systems make invaluable contributions
to the integrated tropical cyclone disaster mitigation system.

* * * * * * *