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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
         
 
  
WMO
 
 
 
 
          
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
                              
UNEP
 
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 
 
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Phone: +41 22 730 8208/8254/8284      Fax: +41 22 730 8025/8013 
E-mail: IPCC-Sec@wmo.int        Website: http://www.ipcc.ch 
 
 
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL 
IPCC-XXX/Doc.14 
        ON CLIMATE CHANGE 
(6.IV.2009) 
 
 
         THIRTIETH SESSION 
Agenda item: 5  
       Antalya, 21-23 April 2009 
 
ENGLISH ONLY 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SCOPING PAPER – IPCC SPECIAL REPORT 
 
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters  
to Advance Climate Change Adaptation 
 
 
(Submitted by Vicente Barros, Christopher Field, Co-Chairs of Working Group II  
and Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, Vice-Chair IPCC) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
background image
1

SCOPING
PAPER
–
IPCC
SPECIAL
REPORT

Managing
the
Risks
of
Extreme
Events
and
Disasters

to
Advance
Climate
Change
Adaptation

Submitted
by:

 

Vicente
Barros,
Christopher
Field,
Co‐chairs
of
WG2

Jean‐Pascal
van
Ypersele,
Vice‐chair
IPCC


1.  INTRODUCTION

At
the
29th
Session
of
the
IPCC
held
in
Geneva,
Switzerland
(September
2008),

Norway
 introduced
 a
 proposal,
 prepared
 with
 the
 International
 Strategy
 for

Disaster
Reduction
(ISDR),
for
a
Special
Report
on
Managing
the
Risks
of
Extreme

Events
 to
 Advance
 Climate
 Change
 Adaptation
.
 The
 Panel
 agreed
 in
 principle
 to

convene
 a
 scoping
 meeting
 in
 2009
 to
 provide
 expert
 advice
 to
 the
 Panel
 on

whether
to
develop
a
Special
Report
on
this
topic.
At
the
38
th

Session
of
the
IPCC

Bureau
 (November
 2008,
 Geneva),
 a
 revised
 proposal
 was
 presented,
 and
 the

Bureau
agreed
to
convene
a
scoping
meeting
in
the
second
half
of
March
2009.
It

was
 agreed
 that
 if
 the
 outcome
 of
 the
 scoping
 meeting
 was
 a
 recommendation

for
a
Special
Report,
the
meeting
should
also
deliver
a
scoping
paper,
including
a

timetable
 and
 proposed
 outline
 for
 such
 a
 Special
 Report,
 for
 decision
 by
 the

Panel
at
its
30th
Session
to
be
held
April
21
st

‐
23
rd

2009
in
Antalya,
Turkey.
This

scoping
 paper
 is
 the
 result
 of
 the
 positive
 decision
 of
 the
 scoping
 meeting
 in

favor
of
a
Special
Report.


2.
 SCOPING
 MEETING
 ON
 EXTREME
 EVENTS
 AND
 DISASTERS:
 MANAGING

THE
RISKS

From
March
23
rd

–
26
th
,
2009,
the
IPCC
scoping
meeting
on
Extreme
Events
and

Disasters:
 Managing
 the
 Risks
 was
 held
 in
 Oslo,
 Norway.
 A
 Science
 Steering

Group
 (membership
 list
 provided
 in
 Annex
 1)
 and
 the
 Co‐chairs
 and
 Technical

Support
 Unit
 (TSU)
 for
 IPCC
 Working
 Group
 II
 organized
 the
 meeting.
 The

Norwegian
Pollution
Control
Authority
and
ISDR
provided
significant
support.

Seventy
 countries
 and
 fifteen
 observer
 organizations
 such
 as
 the
 International

Red
Cross
nominated
about
375
experts
as
meeting
participants,
including
115

nominated
experts
from
developing
countries
and
countries
with
economies
in

transition.
The
IPCC
Trust
Fund
financed
participation
for
40
experts.

Approximately
 140
 experts
 were
 invited,
 of
 whom
 117
 from
 51
 countries

participated,
 to
 represent
 the
 three
 communities
 whose
 expertise
 would
 be

needed
 to
 scope
 a
 possible
 Special
 Report:
 climate
 scientists,
 experts
 on
 the

impacts
of
climate
change
and
adaptation
policies
to
address
extreme
events
and

extreme
 impacts,
 and
 experts
 on
 disaster
 risk
 reduction.
 Fifteen
 major

presentations
 were
 given
 and
 discussions
 were
 held
 covering
 all
 aspects
 of
 a

possible
 Special
 Report.
 After
 extensive
 discussion
 of
 different
 possible

approaches,
the
participating
experts
reached
agreement
on
the
basic
structure

presented
 in
 this
 document.
 This
 structure
 was
 elaborated
 by
 six
 breakout

groups
and
an
integration
team
(membership
list
provided
in
Annex
2),
and
was

discussed
at
length
by
all
experts
present.

background image
2

3.
 RATIONALE
 FOR
 PROPOSING
 A
 SPECIAL
 REPORT
 ON
 MANAGING
 THE

RISKS
 OF
 EXTREME
 EVENTS
 AND
 DISASTERS
 TO
 ADVANCE
 CLIMATE

CHANGE
ADAPTATION
The
mandate
of
the
scoping
meeting
was
to
guide
and
support
decision‐making

by
the
IPCC
on
a
possible
Special
Report
on
Managing
the
Risks
of
Extreme
Events

and
Disasters
to
Advance
Climate
Change
Adaptation
.

Background:
The
IPCC
Fourth
Assessment
Report
(AR4)
concluded
that
climate

change
has
begun
to
affect
the
frequency,
intensity,
and
length
of
many
extreme

events,
 such
 as
 floods,
 droughts,
 storms,
 and
 extreme
 temperatures,
 thus

increasing
 the
 need
 for
 additional
 timely
 and
 effective
 adaptation.
 At
 the
 same

time,
 gradual
 and
 non‐linear
 change
 to
 ecosystems
 and
 natural
 resources
 and

increasing
 vulnerability
 further
 increase
 the
 consequences
 of
 extreme
 weather

events.
 The
 AR4
 recognized
 that
 reducing
 vulnerability
 to
 current
 climatic

variability
 can
 effectively
 reduce
 vulnerability
 to
 increased
 hazard
 risk

associated
 with
 climate
 change.
 However,
 the
 AR4
 reviewed
 policies
 and

measures
that
were
specifically
identified
as
adaptation
and
not
the
full
range
of

activities
undertaken
to
reduce
the
risks
of
extreme
events
and
disasters.

Parties
 to
 the
 United
 Nations
 Framework
 Convention
 on
 Climate
 Change

(UNFCCC)
 acknowledged
 the
 relevance
 of
 disaster
 risk
 reduction
 to
 advance

adaptation
 in
 the
 December
 2007
 Bali
 Action
 Plan,
 which
 calls
 for
 enhanced

action
on
risk
management
and
risk
reduction
strategies,
including
risk
transfer

mechanisms
 such
 as
 insurance,
 and
 disaster
 reduction
 strategies
 to
 lessen
 the

impact
of
disasters
on
developing
countries.


Disaster
 risk
 reduction
 efforts
 are
 guided
 by
 The
 Hyogo
 Framework
 for
 Action

2005­2015:
 Building
 the
 Resilience
 of
 Nations
 and
 Communities
 to
 Disasters
,
 to

which
168
Governments
agreed
in
Hyogo,
Kobe,
Japan,
in
2005.
The
Framework

aims
 for
 “the
 substantial
 reduction
 of
 disaster
 losses,
 in
 lives
 and
 in
 the
 social,

economic,
and
environmental
assets
of
communities
and
countries.”
As
part
of
its

text,
 Governments
 agreed
 to
 integrate
 climate
 change
 adaptation
 and
 disaster

risk
reduction
through:


(i)

The
identification
of
climate‐related
disaster
risks;


(ii)

The
design
of
specific
risk
reduction
measures;
and


(iii)

The
 improved
 and
 routine
 use
 of
 climate
 risk
 information
 by

planners,
engineers,
and
other
decision
makers.

Rationale:
 The
 participants
 concluded
 that
 a
 Special
 Report
 is
 needed
 for
 the

following
reasons:

•  The
 Special
 Report
 would
 contribute
 to
 the
 goals
 of
 the
 UNFCCC
 and
 to

the
work
of
the
Nairobi
Work
Programme
on
Impacts,
Vulnerability,
and

Adaptation
 to
 Climate
 Change.
 The
 Nairobi
 Work
 Programme
 is

structured
 around
 nine
 areas
 of
 work,
 including
 “Climate
 Related
 Risks

and
 Extreme
 Events.”
 The
 objective
 of
 this
 area
 is
 to
 promote

understanding
 of
 the
 vulnerability
 to
 and
 impacts
 of
 climate
 change,

current
 and
 future
 climate
 variability
 and
 extreme
 events,
 and
 the

implications
for
sustainable
development.


background image
3

At
the
UNFCCC
Subsidiary
Bodies
meeting
in
Bonn
in
2008,
in
the
context

of
 the
 Nairobi
 Work
 Programme,
 Parties
 requested
 further
 information

on
the
inclusion
of
disaster
risk
reduction
strategies
into
national
policies

and
 programs.
 The
 Special
 Report
 would
 complement
 and
 inform
 the

work
 done
 within
 the
 Nairobi
 Work
 Programme
 on
 collecting
 and

analyzing
 information
 on
 adaptation
 actions
 and
 advances
 towards

integrating
 disaster
 risk
 reduction
 strategies
 and
 climate
 change

adaptation
into
national
policies
and
programs.

•  Disaster
 risk
 reduction
 strategies
 and
 practice
 are
 primary
 approaches

for
 reducing
 vulnerability
 and
 increasing
 resilience
 to
 extreme
 weather

events.
However,
there
has
not
been
a
comprehensive
assessment
of
the

guides,
frameworks,
and
tools
used
by
various
institutions,
organizations,

and
communities
to
build
the
capacity
for
reducing
vulnerability
and
risk;

to
develop
early
warning
systems;
to
strengthen
community
capacity
and

social
 resilience,
 particularly
 among
 the
 most
 vulnerable;
 to
 improve

construction
 practices;
 and
 to
 establish
 preparedness
 to
 respond
 to

inevitable
climate
impacts.

AR4
 reviewed
 programs
 and
 activities
 on
 adaptation
 to
 climate
 change

and
not
the
wide
range
of
efforts
undertaken
worldwide
by
Governments

and
 communities
 to
 promote
 and
 implement
 disaster
 risk
 reduction,

sustainable
 development,
 and
 environmental
 risk
 management.
 An
 in‐
depth
assessment
that
identified
successful
practices,
with
information
on

appropriate
 contexts,
 cost,
 and
 social
 consequences,
 and
 potential

constraints,
would
provide
concrete
guidance
to
Governments
in
planning

and
 implementing
 adaptation
 activities.
 A
 systematic
 review
 would
 also

enable
 Governments
 to
 identify
 those
 existing
 practices
 that
 should
 be

strengthened
 because
 they
 provide
 important
 synergies.
 Governments,

through
the
Nairobi
Work
Programme,
have
indicated
that
the
increasing

risks
of
extreme
climate
events
are
an
immediate
and
urgent
problem.
A

Special
 Report,
 completed
 before
 the
 Fifth
 Assessment
 Report
 (AR5),

would
 help
 guide
 UNFCCC
 Parties
 in
 their
 development
 of
 disaster
 risk

reduction
and
adaptation
strategies,
policies,
and
measures,
thus
reducing

the
extent
to
which
extreme
events
result
in
disasters.

•  To
 further
 assist
 the
 IPCC
 in
 its
 decision‐making,
 Norway
 reviewed
 the

humanitarian
 consequences
 of
 climate
 change
 and
 compiled
 a
 detailed

bibliography
of
relevant
literature,
showing
there
is
substantial
literature

that
 covers
 peer‐reviewed
 literature,
 academic
 books,
 and
 reports,
 and

literature
that
is
produced
by
agencies
and
NGOs.

The
proposed
Special
Report
is
consistent
with
the
IPCC
framework
and
criteria

for
 establishing
 priorities
 for
 IPCC
 reports,
 in
 particular
 the
 aim
 to
 “strive
 to

serve
the
policy
community
with
relevant
information
in
a
pro‐active
fashion.”
It

also
meets
the
other
priority
guidelines:
sufficient
scientific
literature
exists;
the

primary
audience
is
the
UNFCCC
and
the
target
is
the
development
of
the
post‐
2012
agreement
and
adaptation
plans;
the
scientific
community
is
available;
and

the
topic
is
specific
in
scope.


A
Special
Report
could
be
finalized
in
the
second
half
of
2011,
thus
providing
the

necessary
 information
 to
 Governments
 sooner
 than
 the
 AR5;
 the
 WGI

background image
4

contribution
 is
 planned
 for
 completion
 in
 2013
 and
 the
 WGII
 and
 WGII

contributions
are
planned
for
completion
in
mid‐2014.


4.
 PROPOSED
CONTENT
AND
STRUCTURE
OF
A
SPECIAL
REPORT


The
 expert
 participants
 recommended
 that
 the
 Special
 Report,
 if
 approved,

should
 focus
 on
 climate
 change
 and
 its
 role
 in
 altering
 the
 frequency,
 severity,

and
impact
of
extreme
events
or
disasters,
and
on
the
costs
of
both
impacts
and

the
 actions
 taken
 to
 prepare
 for,
 respond
 to,
 and
 recover
 from
 extreme
 events

and
disasters.
The
emphasis
should
be
on
understanding
the
factors
that
make

people
 and
 infrastructure
 vulnerable
 to
 extreme
 events,
 on
 recent
 and
 future

changes
 in
 the
 relationship
 between
 climate
 change
 and
 extremes,
 and
 on

managing
the
risks
of
disasters,
over
a
wide
range
of
spatial
and
temporal
scales

(Figure
1).
The
assessment
should
consider
a
broad
suite
of
adaptations,
ranging

from
early
warning
to
insurance
to
altered
infrastructure
and
social
safety
nets.

It
should
also
explore
the
limits
to
adaptation,
the
conditions
that
can
transition

adaptation
 into
 maladaptation,
 and
 the
 human
 and
 financial
 consequences
 of

those
limits.
Finally,
the
assessment
should
build
durable
links
and
foundations

for
 partnerships
 between
 the
 stakeholder
 communities
 focused
 on
 climate

change
and
those
focused
on
disaster
risk
reduction.

The
 expert
 participants
 recommended
 that
 the
 special
 report
 focus
 on
 three

kinds
of
extremes
or
disasters
with
the
potential
to
be
altered
by
climate
change

(Figure
 2).
 The
 first
 includes
 extreme
 events
 for
 which
 climate
 change
 has

amplified
 variability
 or
 may
 do
 so
 in
 the
 future.
 This
 category
 includes,
 among

others,
 aspects
 of
 floods,
 droughts,
 windstorms,
 and
 extreme
 temperatures.
 A

second
category
includes
events
in
which
trends
outside
the
domain
of
climate

increase
exposure
or
vulnerability
to
climate‐related
extremes.
Examples
include

coastal
development
increasing
exposure
to
storm
surges
on
top
of
sea‐level
rise

or
 increasing
 urbanization
 amplifying
 exposure
 to
 heat
 waves
 in
 a
 warming

climate.
 The
 third
 is
 new
 kinds
 of
 potentially
 hazardous
 events
 and
 conditions

that
may
occur
as
a
result
of
climate
change.
This
category
includes
events
like

glacial
lake
outbursts
and
wildfire
in
forests
that
had
historically
been
too
wet
to

burn.
 Disasters
 of
 more
 complex
 origin
 such
 as
 landslides,
 wild
 land
 fires,
 and

Figure
1:

Conceptual
model
of
the

topics
to
be
assessed
in
the
special

report
and
of
the
links
among

them.
The
focus
will
be
on
the
part

of
the
domain
where
all
three

spheres
overlap.



background image
5

insect
infestations
should
also
be
considered,
where
there
is
the
possibility
of
a

consequential
link
with
climate
change.




The
following
outline
was
agreed
by
the
expert
participants
to
ensure
the
most

informative
 treatment
 of
 the
 issues.
 If
 approved,
 the
 special
 report
 will
 begin

with
material
that
frames
the
issues,
followed
by
an
assessment
of
vulnerability,

discussing
 the
 reasons
 that
 communities,
 businesses,
 and
 ecosystems
 are

vulnerable.
 The
 next
 section,
 consisting
 of
 two
 chapters,
 will
 assess
 the
 role
 of

past
and
future
climate
change
in
altering
extremes
and
the
impact
of
these
on

the
 physical
 environment,
 human
 systems,
 and
 ecosystems.
 A
 series
 of
 three

chapters
 will
 then
 assess
 available
 knowledge
 on
 impacts
 and
 adaptation,

focusing
 on
 the
 time
 period
 extending
 from
 a
 few
 years
 in
 the
 past
 to
 several

years
 into
 the
 future,
 with
 separate
 chapters
 considering
 the
 very
 different

literature,
 stakeholder
 relationships,
 and
 potential
 policy
 tools
 relevant
 to
 the

local,
national,
and
international
scales.
Longer
term
components
of
adaptation

to
weather
and
climate
extremes
and
disasters
will
be
assessed
in
the
context
of

moving
toward
sustainability.


Case
 studies,
 examples
 focused
 on
 particular
 kinds
 of
 extremes,
 parts
 of
 the

world,
and
modes
of
adaption,
will
appear
in
the
report
in
three
ways.
Examples

useful
 for
 illustrating
 specific
 points
 will
 be
 integrated
 into
 the
 chapters
 for

which
 they
 are
 most
 relevant,
 in
 some
 cases
 as
 boxes.
 Two
 other
 case
 studies,

one
representing
an
extreme
with
a
clear
connection
to
climate
change
and
one

without,
will
form
a
thread
that
runs
through
all
of
the
chapters.
This
thread
of

common
 case
 studies
 will
 provide
 a
 set
 of
 reference
 frameworks
 for
 exploring

findings
about
managing
the
risks
of
extremes
at
many
different
levels,
when
the

risks
are
known
relatively
well
and
relatively
poorly.
A
third
set
of
case
studies

will
 be
 collected
 in
 a
 separate
 chapter,
 at
 the
 end
 of
 the
 volume.
 These
 will
 be

case
studies
that
integrate
themes
across
several
chapters
or
are
so
unique
that

they
need
to
be
considered
separately.


Each
 chapter
 will
 pose
 and
 address
 a
 limited
 number
 of
 carefully
 selected

“Frequently
 Asked
 Questions”
 concerning
 key
 stakeholder
 concerns.
 The

questions
 and
 the
 answers
 to
 them
 will
 constitute
 a
 component
 of
 the
 Special

Figure
2:
Conceptual

model
of
the
three

kinds
of
links

between
climate

change
and
disaster

risk
to
be
assessed
in

the
special
report.

background image
6

Report
 that
 can
 encourage
 solid
 engagement
 and
 clear
 communication
 with
 a

wide
range
of
stakeholders.

The
proposed
outline,
with
chapter
titles
and
first‐order
chapter
topics,
follows:

1.
 Climate
change:
new
dimensions
in
disaster
risk,
exposure,
vulnerability,
and

resilience

•  Risk
reduction,
risk
management,
risk
transfer

•  Coping
vs.
adapting

•  Extreme
events
vs.
extreme
impacts

2.
 Determinants
of
risks:
exposure
and
vulnerability

•  Dimensions
of
vulnerability

•  Vulnerability
profiles

•  Coping
and
adaptive
capacities

•  Assessment
of
and
trends
in
vulnerability

•  Risk
identification,
risk
accumulation,
and
the
nature
of
disasters

3.
 Changes
in
climate
extremes
and
their
impacts
on
the
natural
physical

environment

•  Weather
and
climate
events
related
to
disasters

•  Climate
extremes
and
impacts:
the
changing
landscape

•  Climate
extremes
and
impacts:
the
causes
behind
the
changes

•  Climate
extremes
and
impacts:
projected
long‐term
changes


•  Climate
extremes
and
impacts:
confidence
in
the
projections

4.
 Changes
in
impacts
of
climate
extremes:
human
systems
and
ecosystems

•  Role
of
climate
extremes
in
natural
and
socioeconomic
systems


•  Nature
of
impacts
and
relation
to
hazards

•  Observed
trends
in
system
exposure
and
vulnerability

•  System‐
and
sector‐based
aspects
of
vulnerability,
exposures,
and
impacts

•  Regional
aspects
of
vulnerability,
exposures,
and
impacts

•  Costs
of
climate
extremes
and
disasters

5.
 Managing
the
risks
from
climate
extremes
at
the
local
level

•  Community
coping,
including
migration

•  Community‐based
disaster
risk
management

•  Gender,
age,
wealth,
and
entitlements

•  Social
transfers,
including
microfinance,
cash
transfers,
benefit
schemes,

and
cash
for
work

•  Risk
transfers,
including
microinsurance

•  Data
as
input
for
risk
management,
including
challenges

•  Costs
of
managing
the
risks
from
climate
extremes

6.
 Managing
the
risks
from
climate
extremes
at
the
national
level

•  Practice,
including
methods
and
tools


•  Approaches
for
managing
the
risks

•  Planning
and
policies

•  Strategies,
including
institutions,
legislation,
and
finance

•  Perspective
on
the
links
between
national
and
local
scales

•  Costs
of
managing
the
risks
from
climate
extremes

background image
7

7.
 Managing
the
risks:
international
level
and
integration
across
scales

•  International
policy
frameworks

•  International
humanitarian
institutions
and
practice

•  Other
relevant
international
issues
(health,
food
security,
finance,

security)

•  International
law

•  Financing
and
(dis)incentives
for
risk
reduction,
costs
and
benefits
of

various
approaches,
and
implications
for
financing
flows

•  Technology
cooperation

•  Risk
transfer

•  Perspective
on
links
between
local,
national,
and
global
scales

•  Costs
of
managing
the
risks
from
climate
extremes

8.
 Toward
a
sustainable
and
resilient
future

•  Disaster
risk
reduction
as
adaptation:
relationship
to
development

planning

•  Synergies
between
short‐term
coping
and
long‐term
adaptation
for

sustainable
development

•  Interactions
among
disaster
risk
management,
adaptation
to
climate

change
extremes,
and
mitigation
of
greenhouse
gas
emissions

•  Implications
for
access
to
resources,
equity,
and
sustainable
development


•  Implications
for
achieving
relevant
international
goals

Options
for
proactive,
long‐term
resilience
to
future
climate
extremes

9.
 Case
studies


This
chapter
will
include
up
to
25
case
studies
selected
to
illustrate
how
extreme

events
 and
 vulnerability
 interact
 to
 result
 in
 disasters,
 lessons
 learned
 on

effective
 and
 ineffective
 approaches
 to
 preparing
 for,
 responding
 to,
 and

reconstructing
 after
 extreme
 events.
 Possible
 case
 studies
 could
 address

vulnerable
 regions
 (e.g.,
 Bangladesh,
 Southern
 Africa),
 vulnerable
 kinds
 of

settlements
 (e.g.,
 large
 cities),
 particular
 kinds
 of
 extremes
 (e.g.,
 intense
 rain,

persistent
 heat
 waves),
 experience
 with
 particular
 risk
 management
 strategies

(e.g.,
early
warning
systems),
or
integrated
evaluations
of
particular
events
(e.g.,

European
heat
wave
of
2003,
Australian
wildfires
of
2009).
The
individual
case

studies
 will
 be
 written
 by
 contributing
 authors
 who
 will
 be
 identified
 in

association
 with
 the
 case
 study
 each
 wrote.
 The
 chapter
 will
 be
 under
 the

leadership
of
at
least
two
coordinating
lead
authors.


5.
 PROPOSED
MANAGEMENT
WITHIN
THE
IPCC

The
topic
of
the
proposed
Special
Report
draws
on
the
expertise
and
perspective

of
all
three
working
groups.
Input
from
WGI
is
necessary
to
provide
a
state‐of‐
the‐science
 update
 on
 climate
 change
 and
 extreme
 events.
 Input
 from
 WGII
 is

necessary
 for
 assessing
 vulnerability
 and
 impacts
 to
 extreme
 events
 and

disasters,
 as
 well
 as
 assessing
 options
 for
 adaptation.
 Input
 from
 WGIII
 is

necessary
 for
 evaluating
 the
 issues
 in
 a
 context
 that
 includes
 mitigation,

especially
 in
 the
 chapter
 on
 moving
 toward
 sustainability.
 Operationally,
 it
 is

proposed
 that
 WGII
 would
 have
 the
 lead,
 but
 with
 a
 structure
 and
 philosophy

background image
8

that
 ensures
 full
 engagement
 and
 sharing
 of
 responsibility
 among
 all
 three

working
 groups.
 Careful
 attention
 will
 be
 paid
 to
 avoid
 potential
 overlap

between
 the
 final
 Lead
 Author
 meetings
 of
 a
 Special
 Report
 and
 the
 first
 Lead

Author
meetings
for
WGI.



6.
 TIME
SCHEDULE
AND
PROVISIONAL
BUDGET
ESTIMATE


If
 the
 30th
 Session
 of
 the
 IPCC
 in
 April
 2009
 decides
 to
 proceed
 with
 the

preparation
of
a
Special
Report,
a
call
for
nominations
of
Lead
Authors
would
be

issued
 no
 later
 than
 June
 2009.
 Approval
 and
 acceptance
 of
 the
 Special
 Report

would
be
planned
for
the
second
half
of
2011.
In
order
to
achieve
this
timetable,

one
Lead
Author
meeting
would
be
held
in
2009,
two
Lead
Author
meetings
in

2010,
and
one
Lead
Author
meeting
in
the
first
half
of
2011.
The
planning
would

be
designed
to
properly
synchronize
with
the
preparation
of
the
AR5.


Budget
2009:
assuming
1
Lead
Author
Meeting
with
45
journeys
of
DC
and
EIT

Lead
 Authors
 at
 4.500
 CHF
 per
 journey,
 plus
 15%
 for
 other
 meeting
 costs,
232.875
CHF
will
be
needed
from
the
IPCC
Trust
fund.

Budget
 2010:
 assuming
 2
 Lead
 Author
 Meetings
 with
 45
 journeys
 each
 of
 DC

and
EIT
Lead
Authors
at
4.500
CHF
per
journey,
plus
5
Review
Editors
for
each

meeting,
plus
15%
for
other
meeting
costs,517.500
CHF
will
be
needed
from
the

IPCC
Trust
fund.
Budget
2011:
assuming
1
Lead
Author
Meeting
with
45
journeys
of
DC
and
EIT

Lead
Authors
at
4.500
CHF
per
journey,
plus
5
Review
Editors,
plus
5
DC
and
EIT

CLAs
 to
 the
 approval
 meeting,
 plus
 15%
 for
 other
 meeting
 costs,
 284.625
 CHF

will
 be
 needed
 from
 the
 IPCC
 Trust
 fund.
 In
 addition,
 assuming
 4
 days
 for
 the

IPCC
Plenary
to
approve
the
Summary
for
Policymakers,
costs
are
projected
to

be
approximately
820.000
CHF
plus
27.000
for
a
preparatory
meeting
with
6
DC

and
 EIT
 CLAs
 and
 their
 participation
 in
 the
 Session.
 The
 total
 budget
 for
 2011

will
then
amount
to
approximately
1.131.625
CHF.

Costs
 for
 translation
 and
 purchasing
 of
 the
 Special
 Report,
 shipping
 costs,
 and

outreach
are
to
be
included
later.



7.
 LEAD
AUTHOR
SELECTION
PROCESS


Nominations
can
be
called
for
in
a
letter
to
governments,
no
later
than
June
2009.

Based
 on
 the
 nominations,
 the
 IPCC
 Bureau
 will
 select
 the
 Coordinating
 Lead

Authors,
Lead
Authors,
and
Review
Editors.


background image
9

Annex
1:
Science
Steering
Group

Vicente
Barros,
Argentina
(SSG
Chair
and
WG2
Co‐Chair)

Christopher
Field,
USA
(WG2
Co‐Chair)

Abdalah
Mokssit,
Morocco
(WG1
Bureau)

Ajmad
Abdulla,
Maldives
(WG2
Bureau)

Antonina
Ivanova
Boncheva,
Mexico
(WG3
Bureau)

Øyvind
Christophersen,
Norway
(Norwegian
Pollution
Control
Authority)

Jean
Jouzel,
France
(WG1
Bureau)

Nirivololona
Raholijao,
Madagascar
(WG2
Bureau)

Neville
Smith,
Australia
(WG2
Bureau)

Francis
Zwiers,
Canada
(WG1
Bureau)



Annex
2:
Integration
Team

Vicente
Barros,
Argentina

Reid
Basher,
New
Zealand

Ian
Burton,
Canada

Øyvind
Christophersen,
Norway

Jeremy
Collymore,
Barbados

David
Dokken,
IPCC
Working
Group
II
TSU

David
Easterling,
USA

Kristie
Ebi,
IPCC
Working
Group
II
TSU

Christopher
Field,
USA

Zhahui
Lin,
China

Alimullah
Miyan,
Bangladesh

Pauline
Midgley,
IPCC
Working
Group
I
TSU

Neville
Nicholls,
Australia

Lisa
Schipper,
Sweden

Coleen
Vogel,
South
Africa

Francis
Zwiers,
Canada