1
http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=136701
Are you ready
Tuesday, January 05, 2010
THE Fiji Meteorological Service's prediction - that the first tropical cyclone for the
region would occur before the end of 2009 - has been and gone with Cyclone
Mick.
But it's what else was on the South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook that
we now need to take heed of.
Released a week before the official start of the 2009/10 season, the prediction
was that "at least two to three tropical cyclones may reach Category 3 and one
Category 4 with mean winds of at least 64 knots or 118km/h".
Cyclone Mick, which caused damage to homes, roads, electrical infrastructure,
trees, and caused major flooding in whole swaths of two river deltas, was a
Category 2.
"Tropical Cyclone Mick formed northwest of Fiji around midday and passed over
the Mamanuca and Yasawa Group and Viti Levu on December 13. Damage to
weak structures, tree and root crops have been reported. Torrential rainfall
associated with the cyclone caused flooding in low lying areas and major rivers of
Nadi, Ba and Rewa.
Tropical Cyclone Mick gained intensity as it approached land areas and attained
category two status with estimated average winds of 60 knots (110km/hr) and
momentary gusts of 90 knots (165km/hr)," according to Fiji Meteorological
Service director Rajendra Prasad.
He says that in weather lingo, cyclones are categorized from 1 to 5 - with 1 being
the weakest and 5 being the strongest.
That means that if the prediction of "at least two to three" cyclones reaching
Category 3 or 4 comes true, there is significantly more damage that we could
sustain before this season is over.
The issue of preparedness becomes even more significant given that the New
Year also signaled that start of what is considered the "peak season" for
cyclones here - January, February and March.
The 2009/2010 Outlook said that on average two to three cyclones passed
through Fiji waters a season, with one directly affecting land areas.
2
In the Southwest Pacific area around us, the average number of cyclones that
occur in a season is around nine. The majority of these have occurred within the
Nadi weather office's area of responsibility (0║-25║S and 160║E-120║W).
The seasonal forecast is a "near average number of tropical cyclones are
predicted for countries west of the Dateline including for Fiji while a slightly higher
risk of tropical cyclone activity is predicted for countries just east of the Dateline".
The problem for Fiji is that it sits on the Dateline in question. This means, either
way, our people need to pick up the pieces from Cyclone Mick quickly and be
ready for another one at any time.
The best advice Prasad can dish out is to use the downtime to prepare.
For now though, the three-day cyclone outlook for the area from the equator to
25S between 160E and 120W shows no significant tropical depression, with low
potential for a new cyclone to develop in the area up to tomorrow (Wednesday).
What happens after that we cannot determine. But how ready we are to meet
that challenge is something we can determine - every single one of us.