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Online at http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop15/
COP 15
#1
Published by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)
Vol. 12 No. 448
Monday, 7 December 2009
Earth Negotiations Bulletin
COPENHAGEN CLIMATE CHANGE
CONFERENCE:
7-18 DECEMBER 2009
The United Nations Climate Change Conference in
Copenhagen, Denmark, begins today and is scheduled to
conclude on 18 December 2009. The conference will include
the fifteenth Conference of the Parties (COP 15) to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
and the fifth Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of
the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP/MOP 5).
The conference marks the culmination of a two-year
negotiating process to enhance international climate change
cooperation under the Bali Roadmap, adopted by COP 13 in
December 2007. At the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Change
Summit in New York in September 2009, over 100 world leaders
called for a comprehensive, ambitious and fair international
climate change deal to be agreed in Copenhagen. More than one
hundred world leaders are also expected to attend the joint COP
and COP/MOP high-level segment from 16-18 December.
COP 15 and COP/MOP 5 will be held in conjunction with
the thirty-first sessions of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific
and Technological Advice (SBSTA 31) and the Subsidiary Body
for Implementation (SBI 31), the tenth session of the Ad Hoc
Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties
under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP 10) and the eighth session
of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action
under the UNFCCC (AWG-LCA 8).
A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE UNFCCC AND THE KYOTO
PROTOCOL
The international political response to climate change
began with the adoption of the UNFCCC in 1992, setting
out a framework for action aimed at stabilizing atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases to avoid “dangerous
anthropogenic interference” with the climate system. The
UNFCCC entered into force on 21 March 1994 and now has 194
parties.
In December 1997, delegates at COP 3 in Kyoto, Japan,
agreed to a Protocol to the UNFCCC committing industrialized
countries and countries in transition to a market economy to
achieve emission reduction targets. These countries, known
under the UNFCCC as Annex I parties, agreed to reduce their
overall emissions of six greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2%
below 1990 levels between 2008-2012 (the first commitment
period), with specific targets varying from country to country.
The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005 and
currently has 190 parties.
In 2005, at COP/MOP 1 in Montreal, Canada, parties
established the AWG-KP on the basis of Protocol Article 3.9,
which mandates consideration of Annex I parties’ further
commitments at least seven years before the end of the first
commitment period. In addition, COP 11 agreed in Montreal to
consider long-term cooperation under the Convention through a
series of four workshops known as “the Convention Dialogue,”
which continued until COP 13.
BALI ROADMAP: COP 13 and COP/MOP 3 took place
in December 2007, in Bali, Indonesia. The focus was on long-
term issues and the negotiations resulted in the adoption of
the Bali Action Plan (BAP), establishing the AWG-LCA with
a mandate to focus on key elements of long-term cooperation
identified during the Convention Dialogue, namely: mitigation;
adaptation; finance; and technology and capacity building.
The BAP also called for articulating a “shared vision for long-
term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for
emission reductions.”
Parties agreed on a two-year negotiating process, the Bali
Roadmap, which included “tracks” under the Convention and
the Protocol and set a deadline for concluding the negotiations
in Copenhagen. The two key bodies under the Bali Roadmap are
the AWG-LCA and the AWG-KP, which held four negotiation
sessions in 2008: April in Bangkok, Thailand; June in Bonn,
Germany; August in Accra, Ghana; and December in Poznań,
Poland.
AWG-LCA 5 & AWG-KP 7: From 29 March to 8 April
2009, AWG-LCA 5 and AWG-KP 7 convened in Bonn,
Germany. The main objective of the session was to work
towards negotiating text under both AWGs. Based on a note
(FCCC/AWGLCA/2009/4, Parts I and II), prepared by Chair
Michael Zammit Cutajar (Malta), discussions at AWG-LCA 5
focused on elaborating elements for a draft negotiating text to be
prepared by the Chair for AWG-LCA 6.
AWG-KP 7 focused on emission reductions by Annex I
parties under the Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012 and on legal
issues, including possible Protocol amendments. The AWG-
KP also considered potential consequences of response
measures and the other issues in its work programme (FCCC/
KP/AWG/2008/8), namely: flexibility mechanisms; land use,
land-use change and forestry (LULUCF); and methodological
issues. The AWG-KP requested its Chair John Ashe (Antigua
and Barbuda) to prepare two documents for its next session: a
proposal for Protocol amendments under Article 3.9 (Annex I
parties’ further commitments); and a text on other issues.
AWG-LCA 6 & AWG-KP 8: From 1-12 June 2009,
AWG-LCA 6 and AWG-KP 8 convened in Bonn, Germany,
in conjunction with the 30th sessions of the SBI and SBSTA.
AWG-LCA 6 concentrated on developing negotiating text, using
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Earth Negotiations Bulletin
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a Chair’s draft (FCCC/AWGLCA/2009/8) as the starting point.
Parties clarified and developed their proposals and the main
outcome was a revised negotiating text (FCCC/AWGLCA/2009/
INF.1), which was nearly 200 pages long and covered all the
main elements of the BAP. AWG-KP 8 focused on Annex I
parties’ aggregate and individual emission reduction targets. It
agreed to continue discussions on these as well as on the other
issues based on documentation prepared by the AWG-KP Chair.
By the end of the June session, the Secretariat had also
received five proposals for a new protocol under the Convention
and twelve submissions concerning amendments to the Kyoto
Protocol, proposed for adoption in Copenhagen.
INFORMAL AWGs: From 10-14 August 2009, the AWG-
LCA and AWG-KP held informal intersessional consultations
in Bonn, Germany. For the AWG-LCA, the focus was on
how to proceed with the revised negotiating text (FCCC/
AWGLCA/2009/INF.1). It began producing reading guides,
tables, matrices and non-papers (FCCC/AWGLCA/2009/INF.2)
aimed at making the negotiating text more manageable. Under
the AWG-KP, discussions continued on Annex I parties’ emission
reductions, potential consequences and other issues. The results
were reflected in revised documentation prepared by the Chair
for Bangkok.
AWG-LCA 7 AND AWG-KP 9: From 28 September to
9 October 2009, the first part of AWG-LCA 7 and first part
of AWG-KP 9 convened in Bangkok, Thailand. Both AWGs
resumed their sessions from 2-6 November 2009 in Barcelona,
Spain.
AWG-LCA 7 continued streamlining and consolidating
the negotiating text. The outcome was a series of non-papers,
forwarded to Copenhagen as an annex to the meeting report
(FCCC/AWGLCA/2009/14). While progress on issues such as
adaptation, technology and capacity building was commonly
described as satisfactory, many felt that “deep divides” persisted
on mitigation and certain aspects of finance.
During AWG-KP 9, discussions continued on all issues in
the AWG-KP’s work programme. Most felt, however, that no
significant progress was made on Annex I parties’ aggregate
and individual targets, and differences also surfaced between
developed and developing countries concerning whether the
outcome from Copenhagen should be an amendment to the
Kyoto Protocol or a single new agreement. AWG-KP 9 did
not conclude the consideration of any of the issues in its work
programme.
INTERSESSIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
CLIMATE VULNERABLE FORUM: The Maldives
hosted a high-level forum from 9-10 November 2009, with a
view to drawing attention to the specific challenges and needs
of countries that are most vulnerable to climate change. The
meeting developed a declaration to be presented in Copenhagen,
signed by Bangladesh, Barbados, Bhutan, Ethiopia, Ghana,
Kenya, Kiribati, Maldives, Nepal, Rwanda, Tanzania and Viet
Nam.
ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION (APEC)
LEADERS’ MEETING: Key leaders met from 14-15
November 2009, in Singapore, at the 17th APEC Economic
Leaders’ Meeting. The leaders of the US, China, Japan, the
Russian Federation, Canada, Australia and Mexico were among
19 member states’ leaders present. In their declaration, the
leaders, inter alia, reaffirmed their commitment to work towards
an ambitious outcome in Copenhagen, within the objective,
provisions and principles of the UNFCCC.
ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
(ASEAN) AND THE US LEADERS’ MEETING: ASEAN
and the US held their first Leaders’ Meeting on 15 November
2009, in Singapore, also addressing climate change and energy.
In their joint declaration, the leaders agreed to work closely to
ensure that the outcome in Copenhagen incorporates long-term
cooperative actions to address climate change. Recognizing
the critical importance of adaptation, they also agreed to
strengthen collaboration in research on climate impacts and in
the development and implementation of appropriate policies and
measures.
PRE-COP 15: Forty ministers responsible for the
environment and climate met in Copenhagen, Denmark, from
16-17 November 2009, to prepare for COP 15. After the meeting
Connie Hedegaard, the incoming COP President from Denmark,
highlighted the meeting as “very constructive.” She said
Copenhagen must “with credibility” set the world on a path to
limiting global average temperature increase to no more than
2°C; deliver on all building blocks of the BAP; and develop a
mandate and a near-term deadline to turn the outcome into a
legally-binding instrument.
COMMONWEALTH HEADS OF GOVERNMENT
MEETING: Leaders of Commonwealth countries convened
from 27-29 November in Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago,
for the biannual Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting.
They were joined by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon,
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Danish Prime Minister
Lars Lokke Rasmussen. Focusing on climate change, they issued
a declaration stating that only a “few short years” remain to
address the climate threat and that an “internationally legally-
binding agreement is essential.” They also, inter alia, welcomed
the initiative to establish a Copenhagen Launch Fund for
developing countries, to start in 2010 and build to US$10 billion
per year by 2012.
NEGOTIATIONS IN COPENHAGEN
AWG-LCA AND AWG-KP: The focus in Copenhagen will
be on the AWG-LCA and AWG-KP, which are the main bodies
under the Bali Roadmap.
AWG-LCA 8 has agreed to work through one contact group.
It is expected to draft texts on all the elements of the BAP for
consideration by the COP. It is also expected to discuss the legal
nature of the “agreed outcome” on which parties have expressed
differing views throughout 2009.
AWG-KP 10 is expected to continue working through four
contact groups on Annex I emission reductions, other matters,
potential consequences and legal matters. The emphasis of
the AWG-KP’s work is expected to be on Annex I emission
reductions. All groups are expected to focus on preparing draft
COP/MOP decisions or Protocol amendments.
Both AWGs are scheduled to conclude their work on 15
December and their Chairs will report the results to COP 15 and
COP/MOP 5 respectively on 16 December.
COP AND COP/MOP: One of the main issues before the
COP is the AWG-LCA’s report. The COP’s provisional agenda
also includes items such as: five proposals for new protocols
submitted by parties under Convention Article 17 (protocols); a
proposal by Malta to amend Annex I of the Convention; financial
mechanism; national communications; technology; and capacity
building.
The COP/MOP agenda includes the AWG-KP’s report and
consideration of proposals by parties to amend the Kyoto
Protocol. The COP/MOP will also consider issues such as the
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), joint implementation
(JI), the Adaptation Fund and compliance.
SBI AND SBSTA: The SBI and SBSTA are scheduled to
work from 8-12 December. The SBI will take up such issues as
capacity building, national communications and the review of
progress on the implementation of the Buenos Aires programme
of work on adaptation and response measures (decision 1/CP.10).
The SBSTA will consider, inter alia, reducing emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries
(REDD), the Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability
and adaptation, and various methodological issues. Both bodies
will consider technology transfer.