untitled

EL NIÑO TELECONNECTIONS IN AFRICA,
LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN,
AND ASIA PACIFIC:

October 2009

International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Earth Institute, Columbia University

Overview of current socio-economics
and of enhanced odds of anomalous
seasonal precipitation

This report was developed by a group led by Shiv Someshwar, with significant contributions from
Lisa Goddard, Esther Conrad, Catherine Vaughan Green, Michael Bell, Kalpana
Venkatasubramanian and Sreeja Nair. The report was initiated at the request of Prof. Jeffrey Sachs,
Director of the Earth Institute, Columbia University.

Maps and graphs are created through the IRI Data Library, (

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu

), a

powerful and freely accessible online data and analytical-tools repository that allows users to view,
manipulate, and download over 400 climate-related data sets through a standard web browser.

The IRI products featured in the report are possible owing to the efforts of numerous IRI staff.
Support from US NOAA Climate Program Office Cooperative Agreement Award #
NA050AR4311004 is gratefully acknowledged.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

OVERVIEW

A weak El Niño has developed in the equatorial Pacific and is likely to continue evolving with
warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature conditions persisting there until early 2010. Such El
Niño conditions occur on average once every 3-5 years, and typically alter climate patterns in many
regions of the world, leading to below normal rainfall in some regions, and above normal in other
areas. Depending upon socio-economic conditions in the affected regions, these anomalous rainfall
patterns are often associated with droughts, flooding, wildfires, food insecurity, and other impacts.

This document provides an overview of the current socio-economic conditions in countries that are
typically affected by El Niño conditions (often called “tele-connected” countries), and maps the
odds of anomalous precipitation occurring in the upcoming seasons, compared to normal
conditions. It is intended as a zero draft for discussions on efforts to help mitigate potential impacts
of El Niño in tele-connected regions.

The document is organized by region, and for each region provides two sets of information:

(1)

Key data on socio-economic and political conditions (latest available) for the tele-connected

countries in each region. Key statistics reported are:

• Population Undernourished, 2002-2004 (UNDP)

• Percentage of workforce engaged in the agricultural sector. 1996-2005 (UNDP)

• Food Aid delivery by recipient country, 1997-2007, (FAO)

• Total Overseas Development Assistance by recipient country, 2007 (OECD)

• Per capita cereal production, 2005 (FAO and UNDP)

• Human Development Index ranking, 2005 (UNDP)

• Per capita GDP, 2005 (UNDP)

• Failed State Index Scores, 2009 (Fund for Peace)

(2)

Maps indicating the increase in odds for anomalous precipitation (below normal or above

normal) for the periods July-Sept., Oct-Dec., and Jan-Mar periods under El Niño conditions,
compared to a normal year. The analysis is based on Mason and Goddard (2001).

Sources
FAO Stat. Food and Agriculture Organization. 1961-present. At:

http://faostat.fao.org

Fund for Peace Failed State Index Scores 2009. At:

http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=391&Itemid=549

International Food Aid Information System (INTERFAIS), Food and Agriculture Programme,

1988-present. At:

http://www.wfp.org/fais/quantity-reporting/overview

Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001. “Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO.”

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

, 82, 619-638. Maps created through the IRI Data

Library (

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu

OECD Stat Extracts. 2001-present. At:

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=ODA_SECTOR

UNDP. “United Nations Human Development Report 2007/08.” NY: United Nations. 2008.

Available at:

http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Complete.pdf

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

I. AFRICA

(1) Current Socio-Economic statistics in El Nino Tele-connected countries in
Africa

Population Undernourished (as % of total population) 2002-2004

Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

Notes:
Data is not available for Malawi, Mozambique, Angola, Congo, Somalia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mali, Libya, Sudan, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Niger.
Source: United Nations Human Development Report 2007/08, Retrieved from <http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Complete.pdf>, 16 July 2009
(Table 21, page 299)

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Notes:
Data unavailable for Botswana, Nigeria and Libya.
Source: The World Food Programme; Sub-Saharan African countries, retrieved from http://www.wfp.org/fais/reports/quantities-delivered-two-dimensional-
report/run/year/2007;2006;2005;2004;2003;2002;2001;2000;1999;1998;1997/recipient/SUB-
SAHARAN+AFRICA+(aggregate)/cat/All/donor/All/code/All/mode/All/basis/0/order/0/, on 16th July 2009

Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Statistical Extracts, retrieved from <

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=ODA_SECTOR

>, 15

July 2009

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Per Capita Cereal Production (in tons per million)

Notes:

The total cereal production is in 1000 tons for 1997-2007.

The total population is in millions for the year 2005

Sources:
1.

Population data – UN (United Nations). 2007e. World Population Prospects 1950-2050: The 2006 Revision. Database. Department of Economic and Social

Affairs, Population Division. New York. Accessed July 2007.

Cereal Production data - Food and Agriculture Organization web page [http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=567#ancor]

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Human Development Index rankings, 2005

Notes:
1. ONE is the highest ranking for a country and higher ranked countries are WORSE OFF on the human development indices then lower ranked countries.
2. Somalia is not ranked in the HDI Indices and therefore excluded from this graphical representation.
Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Failed State Index rankings, 2009

Notes:
1.

RED indicates ALERT, ORANGE indicates WARNING, YELLOW indicates MODERATE, and GREEN indicates SUSTAINABLE.

ONE is the lowest ranking for a country. There are 177 countries included in the 2009 index.

Congo and Cote d'Ivoire not ranked in the Failed State Index rankings, 2009 ranking and hence excluded from this diagram

Source: Data from Fund for Peace.org [http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=391&Itemid=549]

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

(2) El Niño teleconnections in Southern/Eastern Africa

I. Drier than normal conditions

Maps below indicate the increase in the odds of below normal precipitation.

For example, a light

pink color indicates that a specific area is twice as likely to have below normal precipitation for a
particular three-month period under El Niño conditions, compared to a normal year. Note that the
colors do not represent the intensity of dryness.

July – September
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Mozambique, Zambia, Tanzania, Uganda, Congo, Ethiopia, and Sudan.

.

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the

displayed season have been masked out. This dry season mask was generated from climatological precipitation values
for the 1971-2000 base period from the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit TS2.1 data set.
Maps show only results with a 90% statistical significance. This highlights regions that are most routinely impacted
during El Niño conditions.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October – December
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

January-March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Namibia, Angola, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, and the Congo.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

II. Wetter than normal conditions

Maps below indicate the increase in the odds of above normal precipitation

. For example, a light

blue color indicates that a specific area is twice as likely to have above normal precipitation for a
particular three-month period under El Niño conditions, compared to a normal year. Note that the
colors do not represent the intensity of wetness.

July – September
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar, Zambia, Angola, and Namibia.

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October – December
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Madagascar, and Mozambique.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

January – March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Ethiopia.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

(3) El Niño Tele-Connections in West/Central/North Africa

I. Drier than normal conditions

Maps below indicate the increase in the odds of below normal precipitation

For example, a light

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the
displayed season have been masked out. This dry season mask was generated from climatological precipitation values
for the 1971-2000 base period from the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit TS2.1 data set.
Maps show only results with a 90% statistical significance. This highlights regions that are most routinely impacted
during El Niño conditions.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October – December
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Algeria, Mali, Niger, and Libya.

January – March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Sudan, Libya, Algeria, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Cote d’Ivoire.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

II. Wetter than normal conditions

Maps below indicate the increase in the odds of above normal precipitation

. For example, a light

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October – December
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Somalia, Sudan, Chad, Niger, Libya and Egypt.

January – March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Sudan, Chad, Niger, Libya, and Mali.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

II. ASIA

(1) Current Socio-Economic statistics in El Nino Tele-connected countries in
Asia

Population Undernourished (as % of total population) 2002-2004

Notes: Data is not available for Afghanistan and Bhutan.

Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

Notes: Data is not available for Vietnam, Bhutan and Afghanistan.
Source: United Nations Human Development Report 2007/08, Retrieved from <http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Complete.pdf>, 16 July 2009
(Table 21, page 299)

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Notes: Data is not available for Malaysia and Papua New Guinea.
Source: World Food Programme- Asian countries: Retrieved from http://www.wfp.org/fais/reports/quantities-delivered-two-dimensional-
report/run/year/2007;2006;2005;2004;2003;2002;2001;2000;1999;1998;1997/recipient/+ASIA+(aggregate)/cat/All/donor/All/code/All/mode/All/basis/0/order/0/

Notes: Data is not available for Vietnam. Thailand had values in negative.
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Statistical Extracts, retrieved from <
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=ODA_SECTOR>, 15th July 2009

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Per Capita Cereal Production (in tons per million)

Notes:

The total cereal production is in 1000 tons for 1997-2007.

The total population is in millions for the year 2005

Sources:
3.

Population data – UN (United Nations). 2007e. World Population Prospects 1950-2050: The 2006 Revision. Database. Department of Economic and Social

Affairs, Population Division. New York. Accessed July 2007.

Cereal Production data - Food and Agriculture Organization web page [http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=567#ancor]

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Human Development Index rankings, 2005

Notes:
1. ONE is the highest ranking for a country and higher ranked countries are WORSE OFF on the human development indices then lower ranked countries.
2. Afghanistan is not ranked.
Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Failed State Index rankings, 2009

otes:

RED indicates ALERT, ORANGE indicates WARNING, YELLOW indicates MODERATE, and GREEN indicates SUSTAINABLE.
ONE is the lowest ranking for a country. There are 177 countries included in the 2009 index.

urce: Data from Fund for Peace.org [http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=391&Itemid=549]

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

(2) El Niño Teleconnections in Southeast Asia region

Drier than normal conditions

Maps below indicate the increase in the odds of below normal precipitation

For example, a light

pink color indicates that an area is twice as likely to have below normal precipitation for a particular
three-month period under El Niño conditions, compared to a normal year. Note that the colors do
not represent the intensity of dryness.

July – September
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of Indonesia, southern Vietnam, northern China and Papua New Guinea.

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October – December
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, China and Papua New
Guinea.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

January - March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Indonesia, Cambodia and the Philippines.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Wetter than normal conditions

Maps below indicate the increase in the odds of above normal precipitation

. For example, a light

blue color indicates that a specific area is twice as likely to have above normal precipitation for a
particular three-month period under El Niño conditions, compared to a normal year. Note that the
colors do not represent the intensity of wetness.

July – September
In this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in parts of countries such as
the Philippines.

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October-December
In this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in parts of countries such as
China, Indonesia and Malaysia.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

January - March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and south-east China.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

(3) El Niño Teleconnections in South Asia

Drier than normal conditions

Maps below indicate the increase in the odds of below normal precipitation

For example, a light

pink color indicates that a specific area is twice as likely to have below normal precipitation for a
particular three-month period under El Niño conditions, compared to a normal year. Note that the
colors do not represent the intensity of dryness.

July – September
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as India, Pakistan, Iran, Nepal, Bhutan and south-west China.

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October - December
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

January - March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries India, Iran, and Sri Lanka.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Wetter than normal conditions

Maps below indicate the increase in the odds of above normal precipitation

. For example, a light

blue color indicates that a specific area is twice as likely to have above normal precipitation for a
particular three-month period under El Niño conditions, compared to a normal year. Note that the
colors do not represent the intensity of wetness.

July – September
In this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in parts of Afghanistan and
Pakistan.

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October - December
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

January – March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Pakistan, India, Nepal, China and Bangladesh.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

III. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

(1) Current Socio-Economic statistics in El Nino Tele-connected countries in
Latin America and the Caribbean

(1)

Central America and the Caribbean sub-region

Population Undernourished (as % of total population) 2002-2004

Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

Source: United Nations Human Development Report 2007/08, Retrieved from <http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Complete.pdf>, 16 July 2009 (Table 21, page
299)

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Notes: Data is not available for Costa Rica, Mexico, Dominica, Trinidad & Tobago, Panama.
Source: World Food Programme- Latin American countries, Retrieved from http://www.wfp.org/fais/reports/quantities-delivered-two-dimensional-
report/run/year/2007;2006;2005;2004;2003;2002;2001;2000;1999;1998;1997/recipient/LATIN+AMERICA+AND+THE+CARIBBEAN+(aggregate)/cat/All/donor/A
ll/code/All/mode/All/basis/0/order/0/>, 16th July 2009

Notes: Data is not available for Mexico; Negative values for Jamaica and Panama; Trinidad & Tobago and Dominica do not feature on the graph as their ODA values are
less than 7 million USD for the year 2007.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Statistical Extracts, retrieved from <
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=ODA_SECTOR>, 15th July 2009

Per Capita Cereal Production (tons per million)

Notes:

The total cereal production is in 1000 tons for 1997-2007.

The total population is in millions for the year 2005

Sources:
5.

Population data – UN (United Nations). 2007e. World Population Prospects 1950-2050: The 2006 Revision. Database. Department of Economic and Social

Affairs, Population Division. New York. Accessed July 2007.

Cereal Production data - Food and Agriculture Organization web page [http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=567#ancor]

Human Development Index rankings, 2005

Notes: ONE is the highest ranking for a country and higher ranked countries are WORSE OFF on the human development indices then lower ranked countries.
Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

Failed State Index rankings, 2009

otes:

RED indicates ALERT, ORANGE indicates WARNING, YELLOW indicates MODERATE, and GREEN indicates SUSTAINABLE.
ONE is the lowest ranking for a country. There are 177 countries included in the 2009 index.

urce: Data from Fund for Peace.org [http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=391&Itemid=549]

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

(2) South America sub-region

Population Undernourished (as % of total population) 2002-2004

Notes: Data is not available for French Guyana.

Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

Notes: Data is not available for French Guyana.
Sources: United Nations Human Development Report 2007/08, Retrieved from <http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Complete.pdf>, 16 July 2009
(Table 21, page 299)

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Notes: Data unavailable/ incomplete for Paraguay, Argentina, Suriname, Venezuela, Uruguay, French Guyana.
Source: World Food Programme-Latin American countries, Retrieved from http://www.wfp.org/fais/reports/quantities-delivered-two-dimensional-
report/run/year/2007;2006;2005;2004;2003;2002;2001;2000;1999;1998;1997/recipient/LATIN+AMERICA+AND+THE+CARIBBEAN+(aggregate)/cat/All/donor/A
ll/code/All/mode/All/basis/0/order/0/>, 16th July 2009

Notes: Data is not available for French Guyana.
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Statistical Extracts, retrieved from <
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=ODA_SECTOR>, 15th July 2009

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Per Capita Cereal Production (in tons per million)

Notes:

The total cereal production is in 1000 tons for 1997-2007.

The total population is in millions for the year 2005

Sources:
7.

Population data – UN (United Nations). 2007e. World Population Prospects 1950-2050: The 2006 Revision. Database. Department of Economic and Social

Affairs, Population Division. New York. Accessed July 2007.

Cereal Production data - Food and Agriculture Organization web page [http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=567#ancor]

Human Development Index rankings, 2005

Notes:
1. ONE is the highest ranking for a country and higher ranked countries are WORSE OFF on the human development indices then lower ranked countries.
2. French Guyana is not ranked.
Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

Failed State Index rankings, 2009

otes:

RED indicates ALERT, ORANGE indicates WARNING, YELLOW indicates MODERATE, and GREEN indicates SUSTAINABLE.
ONE is the lowest ranking for a country. There are 177 countries included in the 2009 index.

urce: Data from Fund for Peace.org [http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=391&Itemid=549]

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

(3) El Niño Teleconnections in Central America and the Caribbean

I
I. Drier than normal conditions

Maps below indicate the increase in the odds of below normal precipitation

For example, a light

pink color indicates that a specific area is twice as likely to have below normal precipitation for a
particular three-month period under El Niño conditions, compared to a normal year. Note that the
colors do not represent the intensity of dryness.

July – September
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Mexico, Jamaica, and Haiti.

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October – December
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Jamaica.

January-March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Nicaragua, Dominica, and Trinidad and Tobago.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

I
II. Wetter than normal conditions

Maps below indicate the increase in the odds of above normal precipitation

. For example, a light

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October – December
In this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in parts of countries such as
Mexico.

January – March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Mexico, Cuba, and Haiti.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

(4) El Niño Teleconnections in the South America region

I. Drier than normal conditions

Maps below indicate the increase in the odds of below normal precipitation

For example, a light

pink color indicates that a specific area is twice as likely to have below normal precipitation for a
particular three-month period under El Niño conditions, compared to a normal year. Note that the
colors do not represent the intensity of dryness.

July – September
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and Peru.

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October – December
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, Brazil and Chile.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

January - March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Colombia, north western Brazil, Guyana, Suriname, Peru, Bolivia and
southern Chile.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

II. Wetter than normal conditions

Maps below indicate the increase in the odds of above normal precipitation

. For example, a light

blue color indicates that a specific area is twice as likely to have above normal precipitation for a
particular three-month period under El Nino conditions, compared to a normal year. Note that the
colors do not represent the intensity of wetness.

July – September
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as southern Argentina, Chile and Peru.

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October-December
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as south eastern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Peru, and Chile, and southern
Argentina.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

January – March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal precipitation in
parts of countries such as Brazil, Paraguay, and Chile.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

IV. Oceania Region

Population Undernourished (as % of total population) 2002-2004

Notes: Data is not available for Tuvalu, French Polynesia, Marshall Islands, Palau, Cook Islands and Micronesia.

Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

For Oceania data for ‘Percentage of workforce engaged in the agricultural sector’ and ‘Food aid delivery’

has not been accessed.

Notes: Data is not available for Tuvalu and French Polynesia.
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Statistical Extracts, retrieved from <
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=ODA_SECTOR>, 15th July 2009

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Per Capita Cereal Production (tons/million)

Notes:

The total cereal production is in 1000 tons for 1997-2007.

10.

The total population is in millions for the year 2005

Sources:
9.

Population data – UN (United Nations). 2007e. World Population Prospects 1950-2050: The 2006 Revision. Database. Department of Economic and Social

Affairs, Population Division. New York. Accessed July 2007.

10.

Cereal Production data - Food and Agriculture Organization web page [http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=567#ancor]

Human Development Index rankings, 2005

Notes:
1. ONE is the highest ranking for a country and higher ranked countries are WORSE OFF on the human development indices then lower ranked countries.
2. Tuvalu, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Palau, Cook Islands and Micronesia are not ranked.
Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Source: HDR Report 2007/2008

Failed State Index rankings, 2009

otes:

RED indicates ALERT, ORANGE indicates WARNING, YELLOW indicates MODERATE, and GREEN indicates SUSTAINABLE.

ONE is the lowest ranking for a country. There are 177 countries included in the 2009 index.

urce: Data from Fund for Peace.org [http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=391&Itemid=549]

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

(2) El Niño Teleconnections in Oceania Region

Drier than normal conditions

The maps below indicate the increase in the odds of below normal rainfall

For example, a light

pink color indicates that a specific area is twice as likely to have below normal rainfall for a particular
three-month period under El Niño conditions, compared to a normal year. Note that the colors do
not represent the intensity of dryness.

July – September
In this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal rainfall in parts of countries such as the
Solomon Islands.

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October – December
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal rainfall in parts of
countries such as the Solomon Islands, Micronesia, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, and Cook Islands.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

January - March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of below normal rainfall in parts of
countries such as Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Tuvalu, Cook Islands,
Kiribati, and French Polynesia.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

Wetter than normal conditions

The maps below indicate the increase in the odds of above normal rainfall

. For example, a light

blue color indicates that a specific area is twice as likely to have above normal rainfall for a particular
three-month period under El Niño conditions, compared to a normal year. Note that the colors do
not represent the intensity of wetness.

July – September
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal rainfall in some
parts of countries such as Micronesia, Marshal Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, and Fiji.

Values in areas on the map that are normally extremely dry (areas that receive less than 1 cm, on average) for the

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

October-December
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal rainfall in parts of
countries such as Micronesia, Marshal Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, and Fiji.

2009 El Nino tele-connections: socio-economics and precipitation odds

January-March
For much of the region in this period, there are enhanced odds of above normal rainfall in parts of
countries such as Marshall Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu and Fiji.