22 April 2009
Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague - Special Representative on Migration, Geneva
Disaster Policy & Preparedness Department, Geneva
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
Climate Change and Human Mobility: A Humanitarian Point of View
1.
There is growing concern that climate change and in particular changes in
frequency, intensity and location of weather events like floods, storms and droughts
may have impacts on human mobility that will cause societal strains in many
countries and perhaps at a global level. Human mobility is a primary mechanism to
cope with extreme weather events, and migration a possible strategy for adaptation to
changing climatic patterns. As displaced persons and migrants often encounter
situations of need, vulnerability, and distress, the impact that climate change may
have on human mobility is also of concern to the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement.
2.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in the
Fourth Assessment Report (2007) that climate change is already happening. It is
important to make a distinction between the current and near-term impacts of climate
change on migration and the impacts when climate change further accelerates in the
medium and long-term, decades from now.
3.
If no significant measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are taken in the
coming ten years scientists fear that climate change will accelerate to a global
temperature rise of more than 2 degrees Celsius which may have a far reaching and
massive impact on human lives, in particular in the most vulnerable developing
countries. This includes the dislocation or migration of populations from coastal areas
as well as areas where there is permanent water shortage. The only global policy to
reduce such demographic pressures is a sharp reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
4.
However, in recent public discussions scenarios of massive displacement and
migration due to climate change have often been presented as a near-term risk, with
immediate operational implications. Such predictions of ‘demographic catastrophies’
can contribute to xenophobia and social tensions, and distract from the humanitarian
needs of nowadays migrants, refugees and displaced persons. As a matter of fact,
much of today’s assumptions about the possible extent and nature of migration that
are, as the IPCC puts it, “at best, guesswork”
1
.
5.
Humanitarian organisations are often closest to the people and their conditions
on the ground, and thus have a role to play in providing the reality-check on
conjectures made on the consequences of climate change and the way people might
have to cope with, and adapt to it. It is, therefore, important that they contribute
humanitarian feedback and information to the discussions.
6.
However, humanitarian organisations cannot operate on the basis of general
conjectures, but rather must respond to the realities on the ground. They must
complement their planning by strategic information on long-term risks when it is
scientifically sound and operationally relevant. It is indispensable that they uphold
and follow the humanitarian imperative, which is to take action here and now, and
respond to needs and vulnerabilities as they evolve.
1
IPCC 4
th
Assessment Report, 2007. Working Group II, p. 365 (“Box 7.2. Environmental migration”).
22 April 2009
Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague - Special Representative on Migration, Geneva
Disaster Policy & Preparedness Department, Geneva
7.
Therefore, for National Societies of the Red Cross and the Red Crescent,
humanitarian action related to displaced populations and migrants, including those
whose move may be correlated to climate change, will be primarily in the following
general fields: (a) Humanitarian response, (b) disaster risk preparedness and
reduction, and (c) building community resilience. National Societies may also have to
engage increasingly in (d) attenuation of resource conflicts. All these areas of work
have to be informed by information about changing risks.
(a)
Keep a humanitarian focus, and respond flexibly
8.
The significance of climate change is generally recognised. However, the
range of potential changes is vast. We have clarity about mounting risks, but often
lack clarity on how and where those materialize locally. Climate change influences
mobility patterns in different ways and directions. Possible changes range from
increasing short-term displacement due to natural hazards and disasters, over
modifications in seasonal migratory patterns, or the loss of nomadic ways of life, to
rural flight, urbanisation, and long-distance migration.
9.
Mobility patterns are mostly influenced by factors not directly related to
climate change. Economic, social and political factors play an important role. Even
when a weather-related disaster is one of the factors it is difficult to identify if and
how strong climate change may have been a contributing factor. Thus, predictions
about the impact of climate change on human mobility contain many uncertainties and
assumptions, and are too general to serve as a practical basis for programmes and
projects.
10.
It is essential that National Societies of the Red Cross and Red Crescent keep
their focus on the concrete humanitarian response. First and foremost, it is in the
specific context, at the local and regional level, where humanitarian action must assist
and protect the people at risk, help increase their options and choices and alleviate
pressures that may force them to migrate against their will and desire. Humanitarian
work with and for migrants must be a flexible response to real-life situations as they
evolve.
(b)
Protect populations through disaster risk reduction
11.
A common conjecture is that the threat of natural disasters, including such
related to climate change, may force people to search for safer places. However,
human mobility due to disasters or the threat hereof, has normally proven to be at
relatively short distance, and within a country or a region. There is little hard evidence
today of large-scale and long-distance migration linked to natural disasters. Where
disasters occur, the displaced usually have the desire to return home when the
situation is normalising.
12.
Nevertheless, data collected over the past four decades show indeed that the
number of persons affected world-wide by natural disasters is on the rise. The affected
are persons whose livelihoods are destroyed or imperiled, and who often are displaced
even though they do not move far and for long. There is an evident need to intensify
preventive work to protect these populations.
22 April 2009
Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague - Special Representative on Migration, Geneva
Disaster Policy & Preparedness Department, Geneva
13.
It is important to give consideration to the impact and costs of a world-wide
increase in natural disasters, and adopt policies to confront these risks. Nevertheless,
for National Societies of the Red Cross and Red Crescent the immediate humanitarian
imperative is to focus on measures at local and regional level to prepare for, and
reduce the risks to populations in disaster-prone areas today. This implies also to take
into account available information, such as meteorological data, and to keep in mind
the changing patterns of risks that are known and relevant to humanitarian operations.
(c)
Contribute to people’s resilience at community level
14.
Climate change related weather events make living conditions in many places
increasingly precarious, thus causing social and economic distress and contributing to
migratory pressures on communities (multidirectional and complex as these pressures
may be). Humanitarian advocacy, including by National Societies of the Red Cross
Red Crescent, may encourage governments to take measures to alleviate these
pressures through improved services and sustainable development.
15.
However, the comparative advantage of National Societies lies in their
volunteer based work on the ground. This may involve, among others, programmes
for food security and income generation, programmes for health and education, or
humanitarian relief activities. By strengthening the resilience of people at community
level, National Societies are contributing most effectively to the reduction of
migratory pressures. Climate change is a significant factor that must be built into
those efforts. Building resilience must take into account these risks as they evolve.
(d)
Attenuate conflicts related to resource competition
16.
A current argument is that climate variability and the related shifts in the
availability of basic resources, such as water and agricultural land, puts new
competitive stresses on many societies. This will lead to an increase in inter-
communal violence and armed conflict. In general terms, this is a plausible hypothesis
but it does not provide a sufficient basis for anything like a new operational paradigm
for humanitarian preparedness and action. Operational generalisations as to the what,
where and when of new types of conflict induced by climate variability are hardly
possible today. Actually, conflicts in recent history have been at least as much
influenced by competition over mineral resources as by competition over basic
resources that become rare in certain regions due to environmental degradation and
extreme weather events.
17.
Nevertheless, we do know that competition over scarce resources is a constant
in human history. The ensuing conflicts all-too often lead to the dramatic and massive
displacement of people. There is also ample evidence that conflict can induce long-
distance and long-term migration. In other words, the hypothesis that correlates
migration and displacement to conflict, and conflict to competition over resources, is
sufficient.
18.
It goes, therefore, without saying that National Societies, in partnership with
the ICRC, must maintain, and even strengthen, their humanitarian role in conflicts, in
particular their involvement in humanitarian advocacy that can reduce tensions over
resources before conflict breaks out.
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