679 - 6720190 (NWFC, RSMC) Web Site : www.met.gov.fj
Niño conditions. These conditions are predicted to continue into early 2010.
Near average number of tropical cyclones (8-11) are likely in the Southwest Pacific as a whole.
Near average number of tropical cyclones are predicted for countries west of the Dateline
including for Fiji while a slightly higher risk of tropical cyclone activity is predicted for countries
just east of the Dateline. Average to below average rainfall is favoured for Fiji’s Wet Season.
on April 30, 2010. Though a TC can also develop outside this period, such occurrences are rare
and usually occur under moderate to strong El Niño conditions. The average number of TCs
occurring in the whole Southwest Pacific region in a season is around nine, with a majority of
them occurring within the RSMC Nadi-Fiji area of responsibility (0º-25ºS and 160ºE-120ºW).
Southwest Pacific TCs are categorised from 1 to 5, with 1 being the weakest and 5 being the
strongest. For the 2009/10 season at least 2-3 TCs may reach Category 3 and one Category 4
with mean winds of at least 64 knots or 118km/h. It is likely that the first TC will occur prior to
the end of 2009. The season should reach its peak during January, February and March. On
average 2 to 3 TCs pass through Fiji’s Waters a season with one directly affecting land areas.
There is a slightly higher chance of TCs passing through the northern and eastern parts of Fiji’s
Waters.
Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures are at levels typical of an El Niño event and further
warming is expected in the coming weeks. However, the atmosphere in the same region has
not displayed El Niño-like conditions as values of the Southern Oscillation Index and tropical
cloud patterns remain inconsistent with normal El Niño conditions. Climate models suggest
tropical ocean temperatures will remain above these thresholds until at least early 2010.
With the current weak El Niño conditions, rainfall is predicted to be average to below average
across most of Fiji. Sea surface and air temperatures are likely to be near average.
For further information please contact the Director, Fiji Meteorological Service. Ph: 6724888,
Fax: 6720430, Email: