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http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/samoa-tsunami-lesson-early-warning-system-slow/story?id=8726174

 

Samoa Tsunami Lesson: Early Warning System 
Too Slow 

Early Warning Systems Are Not Fail-Safe 

By KATHY MARKS  
SYDNEY, Oct. 3, 2009  
 

International aid has begun arriving on the Samoan islands, after a tsunami Tuesday killed 
at least 150 people and destroyed dozens of coastal villages. 

 

Even as relief teams confront the aftermath of the tsunami – which threw successive walls 
of water up to 650 feet inland and was followed by another earthquake Wednesday – the 
disaster is drawing attention to how much warning residents could have gotten ahead of 
time.  

This week's events in the South Pacific demonstrate that early-warning systems are not 
fail-safe and education is as important as technology, seismologists and disaster 
management experts say.  

 

Education as Important as Early Warning Systems 

"People assume that if they have an early-warning system, their problems are solved," 
says James Goff, director of the Australian Tsunami Research Centre, based at the 
University of New South Wales in Sydney. "But it's only one of a suite of ways of being 
aware what's going on. What's really needed is education about the natural indicators. If 
you live by the coast and there's a very large earthquake, or if you see the water receding 
very quickly and going much lower than low tide, you need to move uphill."  

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii issued its first alert 18 minutes after 
Tuesday's quake. By that time the first tidal wave had crashed into villages and resorts in 
Samoa and American Samoa.  

Those who survived had already fled to higher land, rattled by powerful earth tremors 
lasting several minutes.  

It takes scientists at least 15 minutes to analyse essential data about an earthquake, 
including its magnitude, depth, and precise location, according to Professor Goff. So, if the 
quake strikes close to shore, as it did on this occasion, communities are unlikely to receive 
an alert in time.  

 

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When Erring on the Side of Caution is Wrong 

Like many countries, Samoa installed an alert system following the devastating Indian 
Ocean tsunami in 2004. But for experts evaluating earthquake data, erring on the side of 
caution by ringing the alarm before the danger is confirmed is not an option. "There would 
be a lot of false alarms, then when a real tsunami happened, people would ignore the 
warning and get killed," says Goff.  

Relief efforts on Thursday focused on recovering bodies from the rubble and the sea and 
providing shelter for the thousands of homeless. The death toll is expected to rise.  

Australia and New Zealand – experienced in helping their neighbours following a string of 
natural disasters in the Pacific, including a smaller tsunami in the Solomon Islands in 2007 
– are playing a leading role. Both countries have sent military planes carrying medical and 
emergency supplies, while the United States has dispatched two disaster recovery teams 
to American Samoa.