WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE-3
Geneva, 31 August – 4 September 2009
CONFERENCE STATEMENT
Summary of the Expert Segment
SUMMARY
PREAMBLE
1.
OPENING OF THE CONFERENCE
2.
THE SHARED CHALLENGE FOR CLIMATE SCIENCE, SERVICES AND
APPLICATIONS
2.1 Advancing climate prediction science
2.2 Economic and social benefits from climate information
2.3 Climate extremes, warning systems and disaster reduction
2.4 Mainstreaming climate information
3.
USER NEEDS AND APPLICATIONS
3.1 Climate and human health
3.2 Climate and sustainable energy
3.3 Climate and water
3.4 Climate and transportation
3.5 Climate and tourism
3.6 Climate and biodiversity and natural resource management
3.7 Climate and sustainable cities
3.8 Climate, land degradation, agriculture and food security
3.9 Climate in oceans and coasts
4.
THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR CLIMATE SERVICES
4.1 The essential role of climate observations
4.2 Seasonal to inter-annual climate variability and predictability
4.3 Decadal climate variability and predictability
4.4 Regional climate information for risk management
5.
ADAPTATING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
5.1 Climate Risk Management
5.2 Climate adaptation and the Copenhagen process
5.3 Communicating Climate Information
6.
SOCIETAL PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE SERVICES
6.1 Gender and climate
6.2 Climate and communities
6.3 Climate and Capacity Building, Education and Training
6.4 Climate, Business and industry
7.
IMPLEMENTING CLIMATE SERVICES
7.1 From Observations to Predictions
7.2 Research Engagement
7.3 Nations and Regions
8.
EXPLOITING NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE AND
SERVICES
9.
A GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES
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WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE-3
Geneva, 31 August – 4 September 2009
CONFERENCE STATEMENT
Summary of the Expert Segment
In the 21
st
Century, the peoples of the world are facing multi-faceted challenges of
climate variability and climate change, which requires wise and well-informed decision-
making at every level from households, communities, countries and regions, to
international fora, including the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Those
decisions will require, directly or indirectly, access to the best possible climate science
and information and effective application of this information through climate services.
The first two World Climate Conferences in 1979 and 1990 laid the foundation for
building research and observational activities to understand the nature of the climate
challenges and to provide the scientific bases for developing comprehensive and sound
climate services that are now being sought by all countries and in virtually every sector of
society. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and its partners convened the
World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) to provide nations with the opportunity to jointly
consider an appropriate global framework for climate services over the coming decades
that would help ensure that every country and every climate-sensitive sector of society is
well equipped to access and apply the growing array of climate prediction and
information services made possible by recent and emerging developments in international
climate science and technology.
The purpose of the Expert Segment of WCC-3 was to engage a wide cross-section of
climate scientists, expert providers of climate information and the users of climate
information and services in a wide-ranging discussion on the essential elements of a new
Global Framework for Climate Services for consideration by the High-level Segment of
the Conference.
The 200 speakers and 1500 participants in the Expert Segment:
•
reviewed the various elements of the shared challenge facing the climate service
provider and user communities;
•
considered the needs and capabilities for applying climate information in key climate-
sensitive sectors, as well as its social economic benefits;
•
examined the scientific basis for climate information and prediction services;
•
were advised on the needs and perspectives of a number of scientific, environmental
and socioeconomic groups and organisations;
•
were informed of the experience of a wide range of countries and climate-sensitive
sectors in the implementation of climate services;
2
•
concluded:
- that present capabilities to provide effective climate services fall far short of
meeting present, and future needs and benefits, particularly in developing
countries;
- that the most urgent need is for much closer partnerships between the
providers and users of climate services;
- that great scientific progress has been made especially by the World Climate
Programme and its associated activities over the past 30 years, which provides
already a firm basis for the delivery of a wide range of climate services; and
- that major new and strengthened research efforts are required to increase the
time-range and skill of climate prediction through new research and modelling
initiatives; and to improve the observational basis for climate prediction and
services, and the availability and quality control of climate data;
•
called for major strengthening of the essential elements of a global framework for
climate services:
- The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and associated
activities; and provision of free and unrestricted exchange and access to
climate data;
- The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned by adequate
computing resources and increased interaction with other global climate
relevant research initiatives.
- Climate services information systems taking advantage of enhanced existing
national and international climate service arrangements in the delivery of
products, including sector-oriented information to support adaptation
activities;
- Climate user interface mechanisms focussed on building linkages and
integrating information, at all levels, between the providers and users of
climate services; and
- Efficient and enduring capacity building through education, training, and
strengthened outreach and communication.
•
supported the development of the proposed Global Framework for Climate Services.
The WCC-3 Sponsoring Agencies agreed, therefore, that the essential findings of the
Expert Segment, as summarised in this Statement, should be transmitted to the High-level
Segment of the Conference for the information of delegates and other Conference
participants and referred to their individual and joint executive and co-ordination bodies
for follow-up action in particular in the context of the UN Chief Executives’ Board
(CEB) initiative on the UN System Delivering as One on Climate Knowledge.
3
PREAMBLE
1. At the invitation of the Government of Switzerland, the World Climate Conference-3
(WCC-3) was held in Geneva, Switzerland, from 31 August to 4 September 2009. It was
organised by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in collaboration with the
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAO), the International Council for Science (ICSU) and other
intergovernmental and non-governmental partners. The Conference was generously
supported by the governments of Australia, Canada, China, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Namibia, Norway, Pakistan, Russian
Federation, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom and the United States of
America, and the European Union and by European Space Agency, UN Environment
Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization. Additional in-kind support was
received from many other countries and organizations. Some 2000 participants from 163
countries and 59 international organizations attended the Conference, with approximately
1500 attending the Expert Segment.
2. The theme of the Conference was ‘Climate Prediction and Information for Decision
Making’ and its vision was for “An international framework for climate services that links
science-based climate predictions and information with the management of climate-related
risks and opportunities in support of adaptation to climate variability and change in both
developed and developing countries”. In giving effect to the decision of the 2007 Fifteenth
World Meteorological Congress to build on the legacy of the First (1979) and Second
(1990) World Climate Conferences to establish a new international framework for climate
services which will complement and support the work of the WMO-UNEP
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the WCC-3 sponsors agreed to partition the
Conference into two segments:
• Expert Segment (31 August -2 September ) at which climate scientists and other experts
from climate service provider and user communities would examine global, sectoral
and national needs and capabilities for the provision and application of climate services
and identify the essential elements of a new global framework to be elaborated in a
Conference Statement; and
• High-level Segment (3-4 September) at which Heads of State and Government and
other invited dignitaries would express their views on the proposed framework and
ministers and other national representatives would adopt a Conference Declaration
calling on WMO and its partner organizations to implement the proposed framework
without delay.
3. The Expert Segment of the Conference reviewed a wide range of individual and
community-based papers and presentations from climate science, service, application and
user communities as well as the results of deliberations by a number of other major climate
service stake-holder and community groups. The conclusions and recommendations from
the various sessions, forums, workshops and round-tables of the Expert Segment of the
Conference are summarised below. More details on the community-based input to the
4
Conference and the discussions during the Expert Segment are included in the full
Conference Proceedings.
1
OPENING OF THE CONFERENCE
4. In welcoming the participants to the Opening of the Conference, the Secretary General of
WMO, Mr Michel Jarraud, recalled the achievements of the First and Second World
Climate Conferences and expressed his hope that WCC-3 would lead to an even more
broadly-based contribution to the wise handling of the climate issue by providing far-
sighted guidance on the optimum arrangements for the provision of climate services in
support of national and international decision-making over the coming decades.
5. The President of Switzerland, HE Mr Hans Rudolph Merz, President of the Conference,
welcomed the participants to WCC-3, stressed the widespread impacts of weather and
climate, and expressed his confidence that WCC-3 would lay the foundation for a better
future due to better climate information.
6. Dr Alexander Bedritsky, President of WMO and Chair of the Expert Segment of the
Conference, noted that improved climate services are now possible to address a broad
range of user needs. The global community must now come together to provide the needed
information and predictions based on the best available science. The large number of
organizations attending the Conference should be seen as a testament to the high level of
commitment that now exists to providing improved climate services. Dr Bedritsky
emphasised that WMO Members have provided, and will continue to provide, data,
information and predictions that are essential for climate services.
7. Dr Gro Harlem Brundtland, UN Special Envoy on Climate, represented the UN Secretary-
General at the Opening of the Conference. She noted that the Secretary-General has called
climate change the defining challenge of our generation and that today, it is in our hands to
make WCC-3 an important milestone in the quest for peace and security. Climate politics
must be based on clear and credible scientific data, so WCC-3 Conference participants
should make their voices heard. The world needs the knowledge and initiative of the
scientific community now more than ever.
8. Mr Kofi Annan, President of the Global Humanitarian Forum, noted the need for concerted
political action on climate change. There is no room for complacency, and deliberations at
WCC-3 must provide the impetus to help decision makers reach a new agreement in
Copenhagen. Those who are most threatened by climate change have done the least to
cause the problem. Therefore, developed countries should take the lead in cutting
greenhouse gas emissions. Weather Information for All, a new initiative by the Global
Humanitarian Forum, WMO, and the private sector, to establish surface stations
communicating by cell phone technology, will help facilitate the sharing of essential data
and the provision of threat alerts.
9. Following the formal opening of the Conference, the Chairman invited participants to join
in the opening of the Expert Segment. He welcomed representatives of WMO’s
international partners, who addressed the Conference as follows:
• Mr Walter Erdelen, Assistant Director-General, UN Educational, Scientific and
Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
5
• Mr Manzoor Ahmad, Director, Geneva Office, Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO)
• Mr Joseph Alcamo, Chief Scientist, UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
• Dr Deliang Chen, Executive Director of International Council for Science (ICSU)
• Ms. Julia Marton-Lefevre, Director General of International Union for the
Conservation of Nature (IUCN)
• Mr Jean Jacques Dordan, Director General, European Space Agency,
• Mr Houlim Zhao, Deputy Secretary General, International Telecommunications Union
(ITU)
• Mr Reid Basher, Special Advisor to UN Secretary General for Disaster Risk
Reduction
A message of support was also received from the World Health Organisation.
10. Dr Thomas Stocker, Co-Chair of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Working Group I, set the science scene for the Conference in terms of new approaches and
methods that will be available for use in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. These
included:
• Improved short term predictions that will be available to IPCC Working Groups II &
III;
• Improved understanding of the several factors that influence sea level rise;
• Uncertainties in impacts;
• Hazards as a result of human-induced climate change.
11. Dr John Zillman, Chair WCC-3 International Organizing Committee, concluded the
opening session by elaborating the Vision of the Conference.
2
THE SHARED CHALLENGE FOR CLIMATE SCIENCE, SERVICES AND
APPLICATIONS
12. The Conference undertook a comprehensive review of the individual and shared challenges
faced by those involved in advancing the frontiers of climate science, in turning scientific
progress into useful climate services and in applying climate services for social, economic
and environmental benefit.
13. It noted that the original 1979 World Climate Programme (WCP) was designed as an
integrated framework for climate data, research, applications and impact assessment and
that much progress has been achieved over the past 30 years through the four components
of the WCP (WCDMP, WCASP, WCIRP and WCRP), the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) and the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) in providing
society with reliable and useful climate information. It was agreed, however, that apart
from the role of the IPCC in providing comprehensive user-friendly assessments of the
state of knowledge of climate change, less progress has been made in translating scientific
progress into user-oriented climate services and their application for the benefit of society.
6
14. Climate science has a rich history of rising to the challenges of weather and climate
prediction, providing the society irrefutable evidence on the reality of climate change and
human contributions to it. Climate research is now tasked with even a greater challenge to
understand the Earth as a complex, nonlinear interactive system, and assess the impacts of
anthropogenic climate change on coupled human and natural systems. Important attributes
of climate services include provision of balanced, credible, cutting-edge scientific and user-
targeted information that effectively informs policy options.
15. Mitigation of and adaptation to climate change is a shared challenge and, in order to
address the evolving vulnerabilities of human and natural systems, climate science needs to
continue its efforts to resolve the outstanding uncertainties and support climate-resilient
development. Assessments must be made of emergency preparedness and response
systems, efforts are needed to raise awareness of climate risks and opportunities in climate-
sensitive communities; and new tools and products, relevant to decision-making, are
urgently needed.
16. Climate change is a risk multiplier, and actionable climate information is a great resource
for the society. Climate information is about people, and its key role is in saving lives and
protecting livelihoods, and therefore it is important to integrate it into policy frameworks
and development discourse.
17. Climate services are too complex to be undertaken with a fragmented approach, and it is
crucial for all stakeholders to closely work together. For example, integrated water
resources management must achieve balance amongst economic efficiency, social equity
and environmental sustainability.
18. The insurance industry has, for decades, been concerned with climate change, climate
extremes and catastrophic events, and is an important user of climate information. The risks
of extreme weather and climate events are rising, especially in developing countries.
Various insurance options are helping developing countries manage the impacts of climate
change. High quality weather and climate data are the prerequisites for proper insurance
risk management. In many developing countries lack of appropriate climate data is the
main obstacle for introducing the required insurance systems.
19. The speakers at the session highlighted the following key issues:
• The challenge of climate modelling and prediction needs to be addressed by an
unprecedented multinational effort, with massive supercomputing, infrastructural and
human resource deployment, in order to produce reliable high-resolution climate
information for the entire planet.
• The proposed Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) must address the
shared challenge of climate change with due consideration to all scientific and societal
issues, closely involving all the stakeholders. For example, by
o developing more climate-information based decision support tools to meet the
needs of the food security,
o Working with the climate and the water resource management communities to
ensure that climate information is integrated into planning activities at local,
national and regional levels.
o Taking the needs of the insurance sector into account as an integral component
of climate risk management.
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2.1 Advancing climate prediction science
20. Climate services depend critically on predictions of regional climate on timescales from
seasonal-to-interannual, multi-decadal, century and beyond. Climate prediction science
must be an important part of any organized climate service. The speakers on advancing
climate prediction science focused on current capabilities and plans for scientific research
and climate predictions on these different timescales, and also emphasized the key role the
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) plays in organizing and coordinating the
science behind these predictions.
21. The experts directed particular attention to the current state of seasonal to interannual
forecasting and the opportunities for improvement and to the results from experimental
decadal predictions. They uniformly agree on the need to better understand the modes of
natural climate variability.
22. WCRP is organizing a new set of climate change simulations using mitigation scenarios.
These experiments will rely on new climate modeling capabilities: initialized decadal
predictions focusing on adaptation out to about 2035, and longer term experiments out to
2100 and beyond where the magnitude of climate change will be related directly to which
mitigation scenario the world follows.
23. The experts identified a number of recommendations for advancing climate prediction:
• Seamless prediction. Adopt a more seamless approach to climate prediction by using a
modeling framework which includes assimilation of high quality climate observations
which are required for the initial conditions. Where appropriate, these climate
predictions should include coupling directly to applications (e.g. hydrological models);
(2.1.a)
• Reduction of model biases. Reduce model biases through better representation of
physical processes and higher spatial resolution; (2.1.b)
• Mechanisms leading to variability. Improve the understanding of the mechanisms that
lead to the variability on the different timescales; (2.1.c)
• Computing capacity. Significantly increase the computing capacity available to the
worlds weather and climate centres in order to accelerate progress in improving
predictions. The World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction in 2008 recommended
computing systems dedicated to climate at least a thousand times more powerful than
those currently available; (2.1.d)
• Closer collaboration. Ensure closer collaboration between scientific research,
operations and users to ensure that climate services receive the benefits of research as
soon as possible, and that research covers the needs of users; (2.1.e)
• Limitations and uncertainties. Communicate clearly to users of climate services the
limitations
and
uncertainties
involved
with
climate
change
model
predictions/projections. (2.1.f)
2.2 Economic and social benefits from the use of climate information
8
24. Climate information delivers economic value by providing users whose activities are
sensitive to climate conditions with a basis for making decisions. The plenary presentations
at the Expert Segment provided examples of the effective use of climate information to
deliver economic value in different sectors. For example, seasonal climate information can
prove valuable for agricultural planning and drought mitigation strategies, and estimates of
the economic value of improved ENSO predictions for the agricultural sector are not
insubstantial.
25. With respect to longer time scales, the Conference was advised to consider climate change
as a “threat multiplier”, amplifying other potential stresses on economic and social systems.
Climate variability and change can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities to the point of
tipping systems into critical states. In this context, it is important to recognize costs
associated not only with responding to climate change, but also with decisions not to act.
26. There are, however, many impediments to the effective use of climate information for
socio-economic benefit. The Conference learned these impediments include a lack of
understanding about climate impacts, what climate information is most relevant, and how
best to engage with users to define the right questions and involve them in the solutions.
Several speakers stressed the challenges associated with acquiring, and sustaining,
resources.
27. The speakers and discussants canvassed the various challenges faced in removing the
impediments to delivering greater socio-economic benefits from the use of climate
services. Among the approaches advocated are the systematic application of “adaptation
science” that is solution focused and the encouragement of multidisciplinary research. In
addition, there was strong support for the following recommendations:
• Madrid Action Plan. High priority should be given to completing the actions identified
in the March 2007 Madrid Action Plan on the Social and Economic Benefits of
Weather, Climate and Water Services, incorporating the principles of climate risk
management developed at the July 2006 Espoo Conference on ‘Living with Climate
Variability and Change’; (2.2.a)
• Economic valuation of climate services. The international agencies participating at
WCC-3 should collaborate on assessing the value of various types of climate services
and on ways and means of enhancing that value in the various climate-sensitive sectors
of society; (2.2.b)
• Connecting with users. Boundary organisations with sufficient capacity to integrate
information from producers and mainstream services to users should be provided with
sustained, cross-institutional support. Regional support institutions like development
banks and insurers should be mobilised. (2.2.c)
2.3 Climate extremes, warning systems and disaster reduction
28. Nearly 80% of disasters caused by natural hazards are linked to climate extremes. IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report has provided scientific evidence on increasing risks associated
with these hazards as a result of human-induced climate change. Traditionally, many
countries have been reactive to disasters. However, the adoption of “Hyogo Framework for
Action 2005-2015: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters,” by 168
countries, has led to a new paradigm in disaster risk management focused on prevention
9
and preparedness. The UNFCCC Bali Action Plan has stressed the need for disaster risk
management as a critical component of climate risk management in all countries. Since the
adoption of the Hyogo Framework for Action, initiatives are underway to bring together
the scientific and technical agencies, disaster risk management and other relevant ministries
and sectors (e.g., agriculture, health, environment, development) to coordinate the
development of national disaster risk management strategies.
29. The Conference discussed that effective disaster risk management must be founded on
quantification and understanding of risks associated with natural hazards. In many
countries, institutional capacities and cooperation for risk identification need to be
developed. Climate information is critical for the analysis of hazard patterns and trends.
However, this must be augmented with socio-economic data and analysis for vulnerability
assessment (e.g., casualties, construction damages, crop yield reduction, water shortages).
With this risk knowledge, countries can manage risks using, (1) early warning systems and
preparedness, (2) medium and long-term sectoral planning (e.g., land zoning, infrastructure
development, agricultural management) and, (3) weather-indexed insurance and financing
mechanisms. Early warning systems are effective tools for reducing loss of life; however,
climate forecasting tools could be used to develop warnings with longer lead times for
improved sectoral planning. Analysis of hazard patterns from historical data is necessary;
however, changing patterns of climate hazards are posing challenges with longer-term
investments in areas such as infrastructure planning and retrofitting based on building
codes and specifications, derived only from historical records (e.g., 100 year flood may
become a 30 year flood).
30. In light of various experiences, the experts recommended:
• Identification of requirements. There is need for a systematic demand-driven approach
to identify requirements of various user-communities within different sectors of disaster
risk management. This would require partnership and two-way cooperation among the
climate information providers and target users. The coordinated framework of disaster
risk management under Hyogo Framework for Action is crucial for bridging the user
interface; (2.3.a)
• Scaling up of pilot studies. Development and utilization of relevant climate information
for managing risks in some sectors have been piloted; these efforts need to be
identified, evaluated and scaled up through a coordinated and operational institutional
framework; (2.3.b)
• Increased investments in data. Historical and real-time climate data are critical, but
there is a pressing need for increased investments in National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services for strengthening observing networks, and data maintenance
systems; (2.3.c)
• Climate forecasting technologies. Climate forecasting technologies (e.g., seasonal,
interannual, decadal) provide an unprecedented opportunity for improved sectoral
planning for disaster risk reduction at different timescales (tactical to strategic
planning). However, there is need for coordinated research to improve these tools for
providing relevant information for disaster risk management (e.g., predictions of trends
and patterns of droughts, tropical cyclones, floods, heat waves at longer time scales).
10
There is need to operationalise these tools to ensure sustainable delivery and utilization
of information in sectoral planning; (2.3.d)
• Decision maker awareness. Utilization of climate information must be augmented with
systematic public and decision maker awareness programmes. (2.3.e)
2.4 Mainstreaming climate information
31. Climate information is already widely used in many countries and in many socio-economic
sectors, and at many levels of society. Nevertheless, the urgency of adaptation to climate
change, to which there is no alternative, elevates a need for climate information to a new
height. Otherwise, scarce resources planned for national development activities will still be
massively redirected to disaster response and recovery actions. Of paramount importance
for policy and decision makers are the following questions:
• What is the ‘adaptation field’, i.e. the likely impacts that can probably not be avoided
by mitigation?
• How much of this adaptation field we would afford to adapt to and how much would
different levels of adaptation cost?
• How should we handle ‘residual impacts’ not addressed by adaptation?
32. A broad framing of the adaptation processes from awareness to mainstreaming in current
activities and reorganisation due to transformations in risk suggests different entry points
for information aimed at decision makers and vulnerable populations, relevant to
conditions of vulnerability and available financial mechanisms. This includes practical
involvement of communities and governments in the implementation of climate risk
reduction strategies and enhancing the resilience to climate risks. Each country will have to
develop its own adaptation policies, actions plans, programmes and measures. These must
be integrated into the ongoing development processes and might also involve coordination
needs between neighbouring countries. The efficient use of climate information becomes
an essential requirement in mainstreaming climate change into policy and development.
33. The experts in this session highlighted:
• Mainstream climate information. The urgent need to assist developing countries in
mainstreaming local and regional climate change and variability information into
planning/policy development; (2.4.a)
• Availability of adequate information. Existing challenges related to availability of
adequate information for adaptation to climate change in most vulnerable regions such
as Africa, low-lying Asian mega-deltas, and small islands; (2.4.b)
• Learning from experience. The important role of learning from the successes and
positive and negative experiences of addressing challenges in the use of the available
climate information; (2.4.c)
• Integrating knowledge. The value of creating and integrating knowledge bases on local
and regional climate hazards, impacts, and, especially, economics of adaptation; (2.4.d)
• Improved understanding and data. The central role of accurate and detailed prediction
of consequences of climate change at time and geographical scales corresponding to
11
society and people’s needs, which in turn requires improved understanding of the
climate change and sustained efforts in climate research and observation. (2.4.e)
3
USER NEEDS AND APPLICATIONS
34. The climate services needed by society embrace past, present and future climate
information, research, investigation, assessment and advice on climate-related issues. They
include an extensive array of general and user-specific data, prediction, warning and
advisory services focussed on the individual needs of the many climate-sensitive sectors of
the community. All countries, all governments, all socio-economic sectors and almost all
individual members of society are in need of climate services in one form or other.
35. Recognising that individual countries’ needs for climate services would be clearly
expressed by national delegations in their Statements to the High-level Segment of the
Conference, the Expert Segment focussed particular attention on the overall needs and
capabilities of the following set of climate-sensitive sectors:
• Human health;
• Sustainable energy;
• Water;
• Transport;
• Tourism;
• Biodiversity and natural resource management;
• Sustainable cities;
• Food security; and
• Oceans and coasts
3.1 Climate and human health
36. Good health status is one of the primary aspirations of human social development. As a
result, health outcomes and indicators are key components of the Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs). Many infectious and chronic diseases, including malnutrition, are directly
or indirectly sensitive to the climate and their control is a primary focus of the MDGs.
Climate change is recognized as one of the defining challenges of the 21st century and
protecting health from its impacts is a priority for the public health community as
recognized during the World Health Assembly in 2008.
37. New opportunities exist for better management of climate related health risks in the context
of both development goals and climate change. These are made available through advances
in climate science, rapidly advancing communication technology (impacting on data and
knowledge sharing) and a new global focus on effective management and even elimination
of certain infectious diseases. In support of this, there has been a substantial increase in
funding and new partnerships involving the public and private sectors and civil society.
38. Through the development of two white papers (on needs and opportunities), substantive
discussions and the working session on climate and human health , the experts propose the
following recommendations:
12
• Climate services for the health sector. Full engagement of the public health community,
through the WHO, in the establishment of a Global Framework for Climate Services in
order to enable the inclusion of climate information in public health decision making;
(3.1.a)
• Capacity building in use of climate information. Research and training opportunities,
designed to build capacity and provide evidence for policy and practice, should be
developed through effective collaboration across relevant disciplines; (3.1.b)
• Cross-sectoral interaction. Investment in a public service platform within WMO
member and partner institutions to encourage cross-sectoral interaction including
cooperation on the establishment of observing and monitoring networks, the
development of decision-support tools and systems and the development of ‘one stop’
advisory services for the health sector that will strengthen health surveillance and
response systems; (3.1.c)
• Resource sharing. The sharing of data, information and capacity (at local, regional and
global scales) is necessary for improving health monitoring and surveillance systems to
achieve “the most elementary public health adaptation” as stated in the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report. This is especially critical for the least developed countries, which
have the weakest surveillance systems. It is imperative that resources are provided
for collecting, managing and applying data to the creation of evidence-based policy and
practice related to the development of climate-informed health early warning and
adaptation strategies; (3.1.d)
• Partnerships and priorities. Existing programs, initiatives and organizations working in
climate and health should jointly prioritize the development of the Global Framework
for Climate Services as it relates to health. Institutional mechanisms that link outputs
and responsible actors to the recommendations above are required and a clear
framework for activities is essential. Recognizing that partnerships are not always easy
to establish, new and innovative mechanisms should be envisioned to make this
development possible at all levels. (3.1.e)
3.2 Climate and sustainable energy
39. Climate information is essential for ensuring the most efficient production and
consumption of essentially all traditional forms of energy including coal and gas-fired
generation, distribution and utilisation of electricity; and especially for design and
operation of infrastructure and facilities for renewable energy sources: hydro-, wind, solar,
tidal and bio-energy. Seasonal to multi-decadal climate variations give rise to changes in
energy demand but also in energy availability and supply. Primary energy is traded
globally and often delivered within complex energy grids. In particular the generation of
renewable energies is often itself climate dependant. Also Energy prices may be affected
by climate variations. This session highlighted what climate information is available, to
what extent it is already being used, and the current and future needs of climate information
from the energy sector.
40. The energy and climate experts stressed that the energy sector needs the following:
13
• Historical and quality observations. Historical and high quality weather and climate
observations are needed for the energy sector especially in the developing countries;
(3.2.a)
• Seamless predictions. Seamless predictions from global climate models (monthly to
seasonal to decadal time-scales) with much improved resolution are needed; (3.2.b)
• Updated re-analysis. There is need for quality re-analysis of meteorological data that is
regularly updated; (3.2.c)
• Reliable access. Reliable access to climate information using readily available servers
and grid technology is important; (3.2.d)
• Joint partnerships. Establishment of joint partnerships between the energy sector and
climate service providers is desirable; (3.2.e)
• Mainstreaming climate information. It is vital to mainstream climate information into
long-term development plans in particular for the energy sector; (3.2.f)
• Vulnerability assessments. Vulnerability assessments of energy infrastructures
including generation, transmission, transformation, processing, distribution, and
extraction to severe weather and extreme climate events are needed; (3.2.g)
• Strengthening partnerships. Partnerships should be strengthened between the energy
sector and the climate service community; (3.2.h)
• Active participation. Active participation by civil society is needed to improve decision
making in issues linking climate services and energy; (3.2.i)
•
Capacity building and technical cooperation. These are necessary between developed
and developing countries in the transfer of technology in related energy-climate related
issues. (3.2.j)
3.3 Climate and water
41. Increasing use of freshwater has greatly stressed the world water availability. Changes in
freshwater availability and demand due to demographic, economic, and climatic changes
will exacerbate existing problems in the sectors such as health, agriculture, sustainable
energy, and biodiversity. Sea level rise, temperature increase, and the changes in
hydrological cycle, including the cryosphere, as well as a risk of increased frequency of
extreme events, such as flash floods, storm surges, and land slides, will put additional stress
on these sectors.
42. Managing climate risks for human and ecological enterprise has attained an unprecedented
urgency. Addressing these risks through provision of targeted information on seasonal to
decadal and longer term climate variability has to become a key element for a suite of
climate services. Technological and societal Innovations in how evolving climate
information could be used to inform freshwater management are urgently needed and
should be stimulated. Participants to the session agreed on the following main
recommendations:
• Hydrological networks. The continuing degradation of hydro-meteorological networks
and databases has resulted in the crisis in our ability to generate information needed for
managing climate risk in the water sector. Hydrological networks are the essential
foundations for future adaptation to climate uncertainties. A focused priority effort is
needed to reverse this decline and to develop re-analysis products so that a diverse suite
of climate and hydrological information could be made available across much of the
world. (3.3.a)
14
• Partnership and communication. Full partnership and sustained communication
between climate community and the end users from the water sector such as flood
managers, utilities operators, irrigation managers, and agriculture and health specialists,
is a condition-sine-qua-non for the development of the Global Framework for Climate
Services. Under this partnership key attention should be placed on: (3.3.b)
o Data quality, availability and data sharing;
o Climatic information with higher spatial and temporal resolutions, such as the
catchment scale and monthly or weekly time scales;
o Substantial improvements of forecasting skills for seasonal, interannual to decadal
variability for better reservoir operation and flood and drought emergency
preparedness;
o Reduction and quantification of uncertainties and biases in future projections;
o Quantification of climate impacts on both water quantity and water quality,
including low flows, ground water, high surface water temperatures, salinity and
pollution, sediment transport, and effects on aquatic ecosystems.
• Integrated models. There is need for development, benchmarking and application of
integrated hydrological and water resource models, including natural and anthropogenic
water cycles, and coupled with crop models and reservoir operation models to provide
more realistic impact assessment and support decision making in designing adaptation
measures. (3.3.c)
• User interface programme. Existing programs, initiatives, and organizations working in
water resources management should join hands to facilitate the development of the
Global Framework for Climate Services, particularly its User Interface Programme
component. (3.3.d)
3.4 Climate and transportation
43. Transportation is an important component of the tourism industry and represents a major
economic sector. It contributes significantly to human-kind’s greenhouse gas emissions and
is significantly affected by global warming. The implementation of a range of new climate-
related services will be essential if implementers and managers of transportation systems
are to make the best decisions, furthermore, decisions made at one particular time, on the
basis of the best available existing information will need to be constantly re-evaluated. In
essence what will be required will be an adaptive management approach, underpinned by a
Global Framework for Climate Services, that needs to be:
• Accessible to all;
• Driven by ongoing research and build on current collaborations between the
meteorology and transport communities in dealing with chronic risks;
• Constantly improving climate forecasts for specific regions and localities and expressed
in a way that makes them easily used by all manner of decision makers;
• Improving the range and geographical extent of the collection of Earth-system data, and
the exchange of these data between agencies undertaking climate change-related
research and infrastructure development;
15
• Create information that facilitates accessibility/mobility options that are climate-robust
and also consider mitigation, both generally and in specific reference to tourism-related
travel.
44. The experts then recommended the following:
• Climate resilience. Planning and design infrastructure is needed to account for climate
uncertainties to become more resilient to climate changes; (3.4.a)
• Multidisciplinary information. It is necessary to inform the community broadly as well
as professionals from a wide variety of disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology,
engineering, statistics, ecology, biology, economics and financial management; (3.4.b)
• Whole-of-life approach. It is important to take a whole-of-life approach to the
management of infrastructure; (3.4.c)
• Risk assessments. Risk assessments and the cost-benefit analyses of adaptive strategies
should be continually updated; (3.4.d)
• Extreme events. It is necessary to strengthen emergency response planning and
management for extreme events, which current science indicates are likely to increase
in frequency under the range of generally accepted climate change scenarios. (3.4.e)
3.5 Climate and tourism
45. Climate has a complex influence on the sustainability of the global tourism economy. It is
an important driver of major international tourism flows and is the principal resource for
some destinations (particularly Small Islands Developing States (SIDS)). Climate
variability impacts many facets of tourism operations and environmental conditions that
can either attract or deter tourists from destinations. Climate also has broad significance for
tourist decision making, expenditures, and travel satisfaction. Consequently, it is expected
that the integrated effects of climate change will have profound impacts on tourism
businesses and destinations in the decades ahead. The climate and tourism experts
concluded that scientific understanding of the climate and tourism interface has improved
in the last decade, especially research on climate change impacts as well as adaptation and
mitigation measures within the sector. Key knowledge gaps however remain that limit
climate information from being used as effectively as it could be by travellers worldwide
and by the tourism industry in the pursuit of sustainable tourism and adaptation to climate
change.
46. Upon assessing the present use and future needs of climate information by both tourists and
the tourism sector in developed and developing countries, the tourism and climate experts
agreed on the following main recommendations:
•
Interdisciplinary and Sector-wide Collaboration on Research and Practice. Increased
investment and strengthened collaboration between the climate and tourism and
transport communities is required to address key knowledge gaps in the climate
sensitivity of major tourism segments, transport systems and destinations, the salience
of climate in travel decision-making contexts, and the economic and non-market
societal value of climate information for the sector. Co-operation is also vital for the
development of decision-support tools and standards for specialized climate products,
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to ensure consistent communication to international travellers and facilitate objective
destination comparisons in a global tourism marketplace; (3.5.a)
• Capacity Building in Application of Climate Information. Major initiatives are needed
to significantly advance the application of climate information in the tourism sector,
including a series of professional capacity-building workshops in major tourism regions
around the world (in order to adequately represent specific end-user information needs
and the capabilities of regional providers) and the development of climate information
training modules for use by tourism and hospitality schools around the world; (3.5.b)
• Improved Observation Networks. Investment is required to enhance observation
networks and climate information provision in areas where tourism is vital to local
economies, specifically rural areas and many developing countries (particularly SIDS),
in order to improve climate risk management and climate change adaptation in the
tourism sector. (3.5.c)
3.6 Climate and biodiversity and natural resource management
47. Biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they provide (e.g. climate regulation, food
security, freshwater supply, disaster risk reduction), are the fundamental units of life
support on Earth.
48. Biodiversity and ecosystems play a vital role in both ecosystem-based mitigation (carbon
sequestration and storage) and ecosystem-based adaptation (i.e. societal adaptation to
climate change impacts,
e.g. through buffering climate hazards such as flooding).
49. Climate change is significantly impacting biodiversity and ecosystems, and climate
information is required to assess vulnerability and identify adaptation options; recognizing
that managing for current threats will increase ecosystem resilience and adaptive capacity.
50. To meet the expectations of the Global Framework for Climate Services, the experts on
biodiversity and natural resource management recommended:
• Dialogues between scientists and non-scientists. It is important to organize a
continuous dialogue between climate scientists and biodiversity/ecosystem scientists to
translate climate data into impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. climate
services) for the benefit of users; (3.6.a)
• Model improvement. Improving the representation of the functional role of biodiversity
and ecosystem processes in Earth system models (research & modeling component of
the GFCS) is needed; (3.6.b)
• Biodiversity monitoring. It is necessary to enhance and integrate biodiversity observing
and monitoring activities and systems (such as LTER networks) with the GFCS,
through support to GEO BON (Biodiversity Observing Network) and other relevant
initiatives; (3.6.c)
• Indigenous knowledge. It is important to integrate data and knowledge from indigenous
and local communities, including citizen based observations, about ecosystem
responses and approaches to adaptation, in the design and implementation of climate
information systems; (3.6.d)
17
• Sharing of information. It is important to facilitate the sharing of information and good
practices on ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change through collaborative
international systems such as the Nairobi
Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability
and Adaptation
to climate change, and on the proposed Global Adaptation Network.
(3.6.e)
3.7 Climate and more sustainable cities
51. Cities impact and are impacted by climate change in many ways and at many scales.
Climate knowledge should be used more effectively to ensure more sustainable cities.
52. The scientific understanding of urban climates has advanced substantially over the past two
decades including conceptualisation, field observations, analysis of processes and model
building. However the field is young and much more research is needed to improve
understanding to that acquired for other environments. At the same time there is growing
demand for urban climate information in the design and management of more sustainable
cities. Implications of global climate change for cities have not been adequately assessed to
date. In general, few National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) have
appropriate expertise in urban meteorology.
53. The experts of the session encourage WMO, through its NMHSs, to introduce urban–
related climate services through establishing relations to the political and socio-economic
stakeholders and urban developers. These service should include:
• Improving urban climate observation networks. Urban climate stations and networks
should be greatly improved, including vertical information, in all countries. This should
be done in line with WMO urban guidelines. International archives of urban climate,
morphological and land cover data should be established; (3.7.a)
• Climate research for hot cities. Highest priority should be given to strengthening
observational networks and establishing urban climate research programs for tropical
cities where population growth is greatest and vulnerability to excess heat and
inundation is highest; (3.7.b)
• Urban climate modelling. Improved numerical models should be developed to forecast
weather, air quality and climate in cities. A focus should be to incorporate urban land
surface schemes into global climate models, to down-scale regional climate predictions
and projections to the urban scale and to assess their impact on urban health, safety and
management; (3.7.c)
• Education, training and knowledge transfer in urban climatology. Much greater effort
should be directed to increase understanding amongst climatologists, NMHSs and
indeed urban stakeholders. (3.7.d)
3.8 Climate, land degradation, agriculture and food security
54. Food security is dependent upon many socio-economic and environmental factors,
including agricultural systems which are resilient to climate variation and extremes in
climate. The impact of climate on agricultural production is increased in fragile
environments. The indirect impacts of climate on insects, diseases, and weeds increase
when there is climate stress imposed on the plant or animal. Water and food are two sides
of the same coin; hence, it is important to place emphasis on water management to enhance
agricultural productivity. In order to reduce the risk of crop failure and increase the
18
resilience of agronomic and horticultural systems for feed, food, fiber, and fuel production
there is an urgent need to develop an improved understanding of the complex interactions
between climate and agricultural systems and implement production systems that can adapt
to climate variation and climate extremes, especially in developing countries.
55. Agricultural and land management experts reviewed the needs to enhance the contribution
of climate information to land management, agriculture and food security, and agreed on
the following recommendations:
• Risk evaluation and Information Delivery. An intensive effort is needed on the use of
climate forecasts to reduce the risks to crop and animal production, especially in areas
where the risks are greatest. Such efforts should include the development of effective
dissemination tools for timely provision of this information to decision-makers. Climate
information should be adapted and actionable to the meet the needs of users; (3.8.a)
• Cooperation and partnerships. For a holistic management of climatic risks in
agriculture, new and innovative models of cooperation and partnerships are needed
between several groups including WMO, FAO, NMHSs, the Consultative Group for
International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), National Agricultural Research Systems
and Extension Services, National Entities dealing with agriculture, food security and
policy issues, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and
Soil Conservation Services. Linkages between producers of climate information and
applications and various end users should be enhanced through appropriate mechanisms
such as awareness raising, capacity building for intermediaries and end users and
strengthening institutional partnerships, especially in developing countries; (3.8.b)
• Adaptation Strategies for Resilient Agricultural Systems. Adaptation strategies to cope
with climate variation and extreme events need to be developed and the information
transferred to producers in a timely manner so they can adopt these practices to reduce
their risk; (3.8.c)
• Climate Change Mitigation. It is important to recognize that agriculture is also part of
the solution to mitigate climate change and hence adequate investments should be in
strategies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining agricultural
productivity. (3.8.d)
3.9 Climate in oceans and coasts
56. The ocean covers two thirds of the planet, and hosts the largest biosphere on earth. It plays
a dominant role in the global climate system through the transport and storage of heat,
water, nutrients and other climate variables such as carbon. The ocean mitigates surface
warming through the absorption of heat and greenhouse gases. It provides important living
and non-living resources and other ecosystem services for humans. It contributes to the
global economy, trade and food and to national security. It impacts on society are particular
strong within 100 km of the coastline where 40% of the world population lives and
ecosystem goods and services are most concentrated.
57. Climate change on time scales from decades to centuries has profound consequences for
the marine, coastal and littoral environments with potentially devastating effects through:
(1) rising sea level, (2) increasing heat content, (3) increasing sea surface temperature, (4)
changes in strength and spatial distribution of the hydrological cycle, and (5) ocean
19
acidification and (6) ocean deoxygenation, and decreasing sea ice volume (7). Together
these effects lead to (8) changes in the distribution and abundance of marine life, altered
food webs and changed biodiversity in marine ecosystems. Strategies and governance
frameworks for risk management and adaptation responding to these changes need to be
developed. This includes coastal defence strategies to cope with sea level rise and storm
surge rises; and responsive fisheries management, which rebuilds ecosystem resilience. The
implementation of such strategies is critically dependent on climate, ocean and coastal
observing, information and prediction systems.
58. The global and coastal ocean experts at the Conference stated that Ocean Information is
integral and essential to the Global Framework for Climate Service. And in view of that
expressed strong support for the following key recommendations:
• Comprehensive ocean observing system. The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)
should be a major part of the Global Framework for Climate Services and should be
fully implemented in the open ocean and coasts, and further enhanced to include
biogeochemical and ecosystem parameters, in line with international agreements and
conventions (e.g., UNFCCC, GCOS, CBD); including free and open data access. Such
an observing system should be informed by the recommendations from the
OCEANOBS’09 Conference; (3.9.a)
• Coastal and global ocean research. National and international research should be
strengthened to improve our understanding of ocean processes on global, regional and
local scales and should be an integral part Global Framework for Climate Services.
Including a better understanding of ocean-atmosphere interactions, and the role of the
ocean in predicting climate change on time scales from seasons to millennia.
Quantification of the impact and interaction between climate and ecosystems. And
particularly the connection between changes in the open ocean and their impacts on
coastal systems need to be understood; (3.9.b)
• Assessments of ocean climate and marine ecosystems in response to user needs.
Sustained and timely operational assessments of the physical, biochemical and
ecosystem states of the oceans should be implemented; (3.9.c)
• Comprehensive ocean climate prediction. Operational systems should be developed and
implemented for predicting changes in the ocean climate system on time scales of days
to decades, including the development of ‘operational marine ecology’; (3.9.d)
• Capacity building. Developing nations and economies in transition need to be
supported to develop national capabilities that contribute to and benefit from ocean
observations, research, information, assessment and prediction. A particular need is to
locally develop the capability to take ocean observations interpret their information and
thus provide knowledge for local decision making in support of creating sustainable
ecosystem goods and services for their own social and economic benefit. (3.9.e)
4
THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR CLIMATE SERVICES
59. For most of the past century, the main focus of climate services, whether provided by
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), research institutions or the
meteorological private sector has been on the processing and provision of historical climate
20
records for a wide range of planning and design purposes. Though genuine scientifically
based attempts at climate prediction date back to the first half of the 20
th
Century, it is only
since the establishment of the Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) in 1967
and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) in 1979 that significant progress has
been made on the scientific basis for climate prediction and the provision of integrated
climate services in some countries.
60. The Conference reviewed the under-pinning role of observations for essentially all types of
climate services and the contribution of the WMO-IOC-UNEP-ICSU Global Climate
Observing System (GCOS) following its establishment in response to the exhortations of
the 1990 Second World Climate Conference. It also reviewed the substantial progress
under the auspices of the WMO-IOC-ICSU World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
over the past 30 years in providing a scientific basis for the climate prediction and
information services already in place around the world under the general umbrella of the
World Climate Applications and Services Programme (WCASP) and its Climate
Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) Project.
4.1 The essential role of climate observations
61. Long-term observation of the atmosphere, land and ocean is vital for all countries, and
must be funded for the public good as economies and societies become increasingly
affected by climate variability and change. The climate-relevant components of the various
global, regional and national observing networks that have been incorporated under the
auspices of the GCOS since 1991 have provided most of the data used for climate analysis,
prediction and change-detection. They have demonstrated that warming of the global
climate system is unequivocal and have provided information on climate patterns and
trends at regional and national scale.
62. The networks must be strengthened and sustained in order to monitor climate variability
and change, and to evaluate the effectiveness of the policies implemented to mitigate
change. Observations are needed to support improvement of climate models, to initialise
and enable effective use of model predictions to decades ahead and to guide the use of
models for longer-term scenario-based projections. Observations are needed to assess
social and economic vulnerabilities and develop the many actions that must be taken to
adapt to climate variability and unavoidable change. They must be recognised as essential
public goods where the value of global availability of data exceeds any economic or
strategic value of withholding national data.
63. Full implementation of GCOS is essential for supporting both the adaptation and the
mitigation objectives of the UNFCCC, and for ensuring that all countries will be able to
manage their response to climate variations and change through the 21
st
Century.
64. The experts at the Conference accordingly agreed on the following recommendations:
• Long-term sustenance of observing systems. The established in-situ and space-based
components of GCOS should be sustained and operated with continued attention to
data quality and application of the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles; (4.1.a)
• Improvement of operation and planning. The operation and planning of observing
systems should be improved, so as better to identify deficiencies, achieve resilience,
21
and assure reliable and timely delivery of good-quality data, traceable to
international standards; (4.1.b)
• Enhancement of observing systems. Enhancements to observing systems should be
implemented wherever feasible, filling gaps in spatial coverage and in the range of
variables measured, improving measurement accuracy and frequency where needed,
increasing use of operational platforms for satellite sensors, ensuring adequate
monitoring of urban and coastal conditions, and establishing key high-quality
reference networks; (4.1.c)
• Improvement of data services. Improvements should be made to the rescue,
exchange, archiving and cataloguing of data, and to the recalibration, reprocessing
and reanalysis of long-term records, working towards full and unrestricted access to
data and products; (4.1.d)
• Observations for adaptation planning. All countries should give high priority to the
observational needs for adaptation planning, identifying their needs in National
Adaptation Programs of Action where applicable; (4.1.e)
• Regional implementation of GCOS. Developed countries should commit to assist
developing countries to maintain and strengthen their observing networks through
support for updating, refining and, most importantly, implementing the GCOS
Regional Action Plans and other regional observational and service initiatives such
as ClimDev Africa, GOOS Africa, and Pacific Islands GCOS. (4.1.f)
4.2 Seasonal to inter-annual climate variability, predictability and prediction
65. Seasonal prediction is based on changes in the probability of weather events due to changes
in slowly varying forcings such as sea surface temperature anomalies, e.g., during El Nino.
Since seasonal weather is influenced by many factors, including internal variability of the
atmosphere and not all sources of potential predictability are properly understood, forecast
systems, based on comprehensive models, are still a long way from producing consistently
useful results. Opportunities for progress exist through greater convergence of weather and
climate forecast models.
66. The experts with a wide range of experiences made the following recommendations:
• Model quality. Seasonal prediction information depends critically on the quality of
models, and current seasonal prediction models have serious deficiencies. Although
these cannot be transformed overnight, long-term commitment of substantial resources
for model and assimilation system development, and the supporting research, is
required; (4.2.a)
• Climate prediction systems. Developing and testing models and forecast systems across
a range of time scales is essential. Indeed, it is critical that our climate prediction
systems simulate the statistics of regional weather with sufficient fidelity. Provision of
computer resources to allow development of extremely high-resolution global modeling
should be pursued; in particular the recommendations from the World Modeling Summit
for Climate Prediction (2008) should be implemented. There is a compelling need for
dedicated computational facilities that are 1000 to 10000 times more powerful than
available today; (4.2.b)
• Road-map to quality improvement. Seasonal forecast quality can also be improved by
taking into account processes in the cryosphere, land surface, and stratosphere. In
22
essence the “road-map” for improving seasonal prediction as developed at the first
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop (2007) in Barcelona should be implemented;
(4.2.c)
• Improved observations and assimilation. The maintenance and improvement of
observing systems, data assimilation systems and reanalysis must also all be supported
for improved seasonal prediction; (4.2.d)
• Local and regional forecasts. Much more effort must be invested in demonstrating use
and increasing utility of these forecasts at the local and regional level; (4.2.e)
• Interpretation and tailoring of climate products. Increased use and benefit of seasonal
forecasts will occur only with appropriate interpretation and tailoring of climate
predictions, and developing more explicit and real-time links with application models
(e.g. crop yield prediction). This requires real-time access to model forecast data and
relevant observations, which both should be freely available as a public good; (4.2.f)
• Culture change. Building a “chain of communication” that can benefit from advances
in climate predictions to society is required. The chain must target decision makers
responsible for national infrastructures and welfare, and should include climate
intermediaries and NMHSs, sectoral experts, government, business sectors, media, and
others. This will enable NMHSs and local climate services to respond to local users by
providing locally relevant information. (4.2.g)
4.3 Decadal climate variability, predictability and prediction
67. The indisputable evidence of global warming and the knowledge that surface temperatures
will continue to rise over the next several decades under any plausible emission scenario is
now a factor in the planning of many organizations and governments. It does not imply,
however, that future changes will be uniform around the globe. Regional and seasonal
variations in climate associated with natural variability will have large impacts, especially
over periods of a few decades or less. An important challenge is, thus, to predict regional
scale climate variability and change. The decadal time scale is also widely recognised as a
key planning horizon for governments, businesses, and many socio-economic sectors for
which climate sensitivity and vulnerability is high.
68. Decadal prediction efforts are underway, but they are in their infancy and many challenges
exist. The experts stressed these major recommendations to address the challenges:
• Enhancement of Observing Systems. Dedicated efforts to maintain and enhance the
global climate observing system, which is essential for initializing and validating
decadal prediction systems. Of particular importance is the ocean observing system
since the feasibility of decadal predictions largely stems from the role the ocean plays
in the predictability of slowly evolving modes of variability; (4.3.a)
• Predictability and prediction on decadal time scales. Increased investment in the
research, computing and modeling systems to be used for decadal predictions in order
to: (a) reduce model biases which limit prediction skill and present significant
difficulties in the development and testing of the data assimilation schemes; and (b)
greatly improve the understanding and representation of the important mechanisms of
decadal climate variability and change, and establish the inherent predictability; (4.3.b)
23
• User/expert communication. Mechanisms to increase dialogue between the climate
information providers and those in the sector communities in order to make appropriate
and best use of experimental predictions, to better define requirements, and to drive
improvements in predictive systems; (4.3.c)
• Cost-effective Investment. The cost of implementing these recommendations will be
substantial; however, it is likely to be very small in the context of the overall costs of
adaptation. Furthermore, reduced uncertainty in predictions can be expected to reduce
the cost of adaptation. (4.3.d)
4.4 Regional climate information for risk management
69. Because of regionally unique climate characteristic and socio-economic structures,
focussed and relevant climate information and services are needed for many purposes
especially disaster risk reduction, protection against disease, environmental protection,
enhanced agricultural production, water resource management and infrastructure planning.
In order to meet end-users needs for climate information and services, it is necessary to
continually improve technological capabilities through further research and development
on key climate processes and climate prediction models and methods. This requires strong
regional co-operation in capacity building and provider-user dialogue.
70. The Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) conducted in many regions over the past
decade have contributed to the improvement of regional climate services through the
production of consensus forecasts, exchange of technical information among National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and regionally based interaction
between climate service provider and user communities. The emerging WMO framework
for climate service provision includes the WMO Global Producing Centres (GPCs) and a
network of regional centres including Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) supporting the role
of the NMHSs.
71. In order to enhance the satisfaction of demands for regional climate information and
services for risk management, regional climate services experts at the Conference
expressed strong support for:
• Provider-user partnerships. Partnerships should be fostered between NMHSs and user
communities to promote effective user-oriented climate information and services and
decision-support system; (4.4.a)
• Integrated weather-climate information. NMHSs should be enabled to promote the
production and provision of seamless weather and climate information on daily to
centennial time scales; (4.4.b)
• Regional Capacity Building. Designation, establishment and development of
mechanisms such as RCCs, RCOFs and participation in user planning forums such as
Malaria Outlook Forums (MALOFs) should be supported and strengthened as
important means of providing user-tailored climate services including climate change
projections for the development of adaptation strategies. Regional cooperation with
wide range of sectors is essential in improving the capacity to provide and use climate
information; (4.4.c)
• Observation, monitoring and research. Continued efforts on climate observation,
monitoring and research are needed to continuously improve the basis for provision of
24
regional and national climate information and services. Research efforts should be
informed through dialogue with climate service providers and users. (4.4.d)
5.
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
72. The Conference recognised that the principal international forum for co-ordination of
national action on both the adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change is
provided by the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and that the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) provides the critical role of analysing the available climate data
and information and producing policy-relevant assessments for the Parties to the UNFCCC.
It also noted that under the auspices of its Chief Executives’ Board (CEB), the United
Nations System is committed to ‘Delivering as One on Climate Change’.
73. The Conference further noted the urgency of establishing a Global Framework for Climate
Services as an effective means to address user needs for information on shorter term
climate variability and change (i.e., on seasonal to decadal scales) that affect societies at the
national level and the development of common policies and actions internationally. The
results of the three essential issues, discussed below, address factors to consider in
providing effective national and international responses to climate variability and change.
5.1 Climate risk management
74. The most dominant message coming from the Round-table on Climate Risk Management
was that the proposed Global Framework for Climate Services must engage user
communities in developing services tailored to meet their needs for climate risk
management. If this is not done, a real danger exists that the services will not be used.
75. The Round-table also noted that there is a lack of critical data available for use in
development of climate services. This includes data that are not collected as well as data
that are collected but not exchanged because of inadequate data policies. Ownership of data
at local scales was seen as being particularly important and this included, as a key priority,
making data widely available to engineers and scientists in the developing world.
76. A number of speakers stressed that important science challenges must be overcome,
including improved broad scale climate predictions and downscaling to regional and local
spatial scales. Scientists and engineers in the developing world need access to, and training
in the use of models that assist in local climate prediction and the development of services
to meet local needs. It was seen as particularly important that users of services provided
through the proposed Global Framework for Climate Services understand the capabilities
and limitations of this information and the concepts of probabilities and uncertainties
associated with this climate information.
77. Climate was seen as only one component of environmental risk management, that is, as a
compounding factor in an already stressed environment. Therefore climate scientists need
to work with a broad community of engineers, social scientists, biologists and the like in
developing information that fully meets the needs of decision makers.
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78. Finally, the Session noted that many climate services are already being provided to a broad
range of users, and that the proposed Global Framework for Climate Services should build
on, not duplicate these activities.
5.2 Climate adaptation and the Copenhagen process
79. The roundtable on Adaptation and the Copenhagen process discussed how the proposed
Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) could support the implementation of
relevant elements on adaptation of a Copenhagen agreed outcome, in particular as they
relate to the needs for climate information and services to inform decision making on
adaptation.
80. In order to enhanced climate service support for the work of the UNFCCC, there was
strong support for the following recommendations:
• Priority on adaptation. Adaptation has become an important priority, requiring
enhanced action towards implementation at all levels and across all sectors, based on a
solid knowledge and information base; (5.2.a)
• Action on adaptation. A robust outcome on enhanced action on adaptation in
Copenhagen that will catalyse action on adaptation will be of benefit to all countries,
but in particular help the most vulnerable adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Assessment, planning and implementation of adaptation actions needs to be based on
and supported by strengthened research, systematic observations, monitoring and
modelling, improvements to the collection, reliability, provision, dissemination and
application of climate data, information and knowledge; (5.2.b)
• Information for adaptation. Improved climate data and information, including on
extreme events, are critical to this end; this would enable more robust assessments of
vulnerabilities and prediction of impacts, adaptation planning and practices, and
reduction and management of risks through consideration of climate information in
decision making, and thereby enabling a pro-active approach for adaptation; (5.2.c)
• Need for international cooperation. A need for the type of information and services that
a GFCS is expected to deliver, in particular to support adaptation activities, has been
expressed under the UNFCCC and calls upon the international community to address
those needs have been made. In developing a GFCS, existing global, regional and
national initiatives and knowledge, including work and expertise of UN agencies as
well as regional centres should be used. At the same time, cooperation needs to be
fostered among all countries in sharing knowledge, data, methods and tools for
adaptation purposes, as well as between the meteorological and climate change
community; (5.2.d)
• GFCS benefits. A GFCS can and should support many of the needs already identified
under the UNFCCC: It has the potential to assist Parties in their adaptation efforts in the
upcoming years, including in the implementation of relevant elements under a
Copenhagen agreement. At the same time, a GFCS can address many of the needs and
priorities identified by countries under the on-going work on adaptation under the
UNFCCC, such as on research and systematic global climate observations, the Nairobi
work programme, and National Adaptation Programmes of Actions (NAPAs) of Least
Developed Countries (LDCs); (5.2.e)
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• User interface. A GFCS that facilitates strong linkages between developers and users of
climate information can provide the information base that decision makers at all levels
and across sectors need to act upon, and as such can become a powerful tool to support
adaptation efforts. (5.2.f)
5.3 Communicating Climate Information for Adaptation and Risk Management
81. The successful communication of climate change and variability information to the world’s
public remains one of the least resolved issues within climate change. Disseminators and
communicators of climate change information come from a wide background within
science and the humanities, but generally with a strong presence from the world of
television broadcast meteorology. This group of people is made up primarily (but not
exclusively) of broadcast meteorologists, skilled weather presenters, and environmental
journalists. It is not however a cohesive group – and there are varying levels of
comprehension of the core science within this group of people. However, it is the daily
broadcast meteorologist/weather presenter who is recognized as the most trusted, credible
and talented person capable of delivering the complex message of climate change.
82. The round table agreed that there was not enough dialogue between scientists and
communicators, and that the development of climate services were not being advanced
quickly enough – especially in light of the recent accelerated rate of climate change and
variability noted by many climate scientists.
83. The round table participants, together with the audience, voiced agreement on the
following main recommendations:
• Climate communicators. The NMHSs should involve those who communicate the daily
weather messages from within their own organizations when planning for the mass
distribution of timely climatological information. The climate change message must be
delivered efficiently and effectively – irrespective of any prevailing political
persuasion; (5.3.a)
• Access to climate information. There is a pressing societal need for climate change
information. It is necessary to make sure that weather and climate communicators
themselves remain at the very forefront of the science. Researchers, scientists,
climatologists and academics within the field are urged to share their knowledge freely,
willingly, and in a timely manner to further the process of dissemination. Access to
information remains the single biggest hurdle for many weather and climate
communicators; (5.3.b)
• Best practices and training. Best practices in regards to “delivering the message” range
widely from country to country, because of differences in the varying regional threats,
and difference in the delivery mechanisms around the world. However there are a few
rules and techniques that can aid effective delivery of the message. These techniques
need to be shared amongst all broadcasters. Weather broadcasters should have access to
training in these techniques and be empowered to use them. The World Meteorological
Organization has a lead role in this task; it should tap into the professional broadcast
organizations to facilitate broadcast and presentation training for those who require it;
(5.3.c)
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• Unbiased communication of climate information. Communicators of climate change
must remain independent. Every socio-economic sector will potentially be affected by
our changing weather, and the communicator should not be aligned with any one single
group. It is of the utmost importance that broadcasters who discuss climate change and
variability are not perceived by the audience to be unduly influenced by political
ideology nor economic considerations; (5.3.d)
• Dialogues with communicators. There should be a much greater degree of dialogue
between climate change scientists, and those who communicate to end-users; (5.3.e)
• Outreach by climate communicators. Finally, weather broadcasters should take a lead
in reaching out to other communities – in particular the education and health
communities – in promoting discourse over climate change and variability. (5.3.f)
6.
SOCIETIAL PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE SERVICES
84. Many different communities, in addition to the established climate service providers, have
become increasingly engaged, over the years since the 1990 Second World Climate
Conference, with the various scientific, operational, social and policy issues involved in
providing and using climate services.
85. It was agreed that these diverse perspectives are extremely important to the design of an
effective Global Framework for Climate Services and invited four different stake-holder
groups to conduct forums related to (a) Gender and climate, (b) Climate and communities,
(c) Business and industry, and (d) Capacity building, education and training.
6.1 Climate and Gender
86. The experts and participants of the Gender and Climate Forum of the WCC-3 having
considered an extensive body of knowledge and expertise in the area of gender and climate
variability and change, recognized that women and men around the globe are distinct
carriers, providers and users of climate information, and that mounting evidence shows that
drivers and consequences of climate change are not gender neutral. The experts made the
following recommendations with priority placed on:
• Mainstreaming gender equality. Gender equality must be mainstreamed into climate
science, mechanisms and activities, and in climate institutions, particularly the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services (NMHS), and into the Global Framework for Climate Services. (6.1.a)
87. The proposed Global Framework for Climate Services should reflect a gender perspective
in all its components, namely:
• Observation and Monitoring. Involvement of local communities, particularly
local women in environmental change and climate observations, and provision
of adequate preparation and training of women and men is necessary for their
full participation as providers and users of climate information; (6.1.b)
• Research and Modelling: Gender parity and equal participation of women
researchers in climate research should be ensured at national, regional and
international level. Enhance the role of social scientists and the human
dimension in climate research; (6.1.c)
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• Climate Service Information System. Information on gender aspects of climate
and health, energy, water and agriculture for mitigation and adaptation,
particularly through the collection of gender disaggregated data, at both the
country and regional levels needs to be enhanced. National statistics divisions
should be trained in gender disaggregated data collection, in collaboration with
UN agencies, and legal guarantees for the regular and continuous production of
a minimum set of gender specific data in situations of climate change, should be
promoted; (6.1.d)
• Climate Services Application Programme. Recognizing the level of knowledge
and taking into account the realities of access to information for women, it is
necessary not only to ensure accessibility and benefits from climate information
for scientists and decision makers in all regions, but particularly for local
communities, especially local women. (6.1.e)
88. Furthermore the Gender and Climate Forum recommended:
• User-oriented information. Climate information and practical prediction
services, including those designed by users is important to assist in empowering
local women; (6.1.f).
• Outreach and Capacity Building: It is important to ensure and support outreach
and capacity building for a broad user community, including local women and
men of different age groups. (6.1.g)
6.2 Climate and Communities
89. Local communities are at the frontline of the impacts of climate change, climate variability
and extremes. The community level is a key entry point for better climate risk
management. However, the most vulnerable communities rarely benefit from our growing
ability to anticipate future conditions and are often missing in national adaptation plans and
programs.
90. The Forum was informed by practical experiences on community-based risk management
from a range of perspectives, including people working directly with local communities
and indigenous peoples, boundary organizations, development and humanitarian
organizations, meteorological agencies and academia. They demonstrated that community-
based risk management is a very effective, and in fact essential, component of national and
international efforts to better manage climate variability and change.
91. Practitioners and experts at the Forum agreed that:
• Empowerment of communities is essential;
• Climate is seldom communities’ first concern, so climate risk management needs to be
integrated into community development, security and practice;
• Local communities are holders of complex knowledge about local weather, climate,
biodiversity, ecosystems and have a history of adaptation to climate variations. Climate
risk management should draw on socio-economic data and local vulnerability and
capacity assessments to assess and address differential vulnerabilities among and within
communities, including gender, age and income differences, and recognize potential
trade-offs;
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• Communities will accept and use external information when they trust the source and
there is a supportive partnership context.
• Much can be achieved by adapting to the current climate, and reducing the current
adaptation deficit by including both short, medium and long term risk planning;
• Local communities are holders of complex knowledge about local weather, climate,
biodiversity, ecosystems and have a history of adaptation to climate variations;
92. The Forum agreed that science-based climate information can effectively support climate
risk management at community level, and made the following recommendations to achieve
this at a wider scale:
• Local knowledge and decision-making. It is necessary to recognize the central role of
local communities in decision-making at local level, and draw on their existing
traditional knowledge, values, skills and cultural systems; (6.2.a)
• Build local capacity. Building capacity at local level empowers communities and
strengthens the link between local practice and national policy frameworks; (6.2.b)
• Start now. Better application of climate information can be generated right now, rather
than just on longer-term efforts to enhance observations and predictions; (6.2.c)
• Context-specific climate risk management. Provision of generic climate information is
not enough. Climate risk management is highly context-specific. There is no one-size-
fits-all climate information product and actionable information, as well as guidance and
tools, supportive rather than prescriptive is needed; (6.2.d)
• Expectations of users. It is essential to be transparent on uncertainties and inform local
users on what can be expected. Effective communication can ensure that information
gets to the right level and is understood, trusted, and actionable; (6.2.e)
• Best practices. Best practice examples and peer-to-peer learning should be fostered.,
including through modern media and stakeholder forums; (6.2.f)
• Partnerships. Benefit can be gained by investing in partnerships and instituting
effective engagement based on dialogues amongst users and suppliers of information
and services, often through local champions and boundary organizations. (6.2.g)
6.3 Climate and Capacity-building, Education and Training
93. Capacity-building is much more than training; it requires institutional strengthening in
governance, management and funding as well as human resources development, in areas
such as weather, climate and water. Capacity-building activities for improving adaptation
require that the stakeholders demand that they should be service-oriented and driven by the
outcomes that stakeholders request. The capacity to use climate information then becomes
part of a larger effort to achieve a specific goal. The capacity-building experts developed
the following recommendations for action:
• Capacity development. Capacity development works best when politicians and
scientific leadership have the same vision; strong leadership is critical for effectiveness;
(6.3.a)
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• Climate change education. Mainstreaming of climate change education in curricula at
all educational levels is a priority; (6.3.b)
• Interaction between science and communities. Due to the site-specific nature of
resilience and adaptation to climate change, local community and indigenous
knowledge of ecosystems, natural hazards and adaptation mechanisms has been
developed over long time periods. Yet climate change and variability may overwhelm
these traditional adaptation mechanisms. It is therefore urgent to enhance the human
and institutional capacity to increase the interaction between scientific knowledge and
local community and indigenous understanding at all levels; (6.3.c)
• Adapting to current variability. Focusing adaptation to climate change scenarios that
are far in the future (e.g., over 50 years) with large uncertainties strongly reduces the
interest of most stakeholder groups. Climate change must be promoted as an issue of
the present. Societies need to improve adaptation to current climate variability and
extremes, and by doing so will improve their adaptive capacity to future climate
scenarios. Efforts should therefore be focused in building the capacity to identify and
promote actions that improve adaptation today and reduce vulnerabilities in the future;
(6.3.d)
• Accessibility. Climate information services should be accessible by users, useful in
national and regional contexts, and assimilate local inputs and accept feedback. Such
information services will be developed through capacity-building at the policy,
institutional and individual levels. External players should abide by clear principles of
engagement when undertaking capacity development work; (6.3.e)
• Long-term partnerships. Capacity-building and training must be seen as a long-term
provider-user relationship of listening and learning. Such a relationship requires access
to data, information, ability to generate knowledge, and community collaboration. It is
essential that programmes are monitored and evaluated, and that lessons learned feed
back into the programme and to demonstrated useful results; 6.3.f)
• Adapting to high-risks. Managing climate-related risks to sustainable development is
already a requirement in high-risk environments. The tools developed for managing
climate-related risks are relevant for climate change adaptation and provide a useful
and necessary starting point for capacity development; (6.3.g)
• Mainstreaming climate information. Climate information products will be optimized
when all links in the existing information chain—leading from information producers to
users at various levels—are competent. (6.3.h)
6.4 Climate, Business and Industry
94. Climate change is a cross cutting issue –threatening energy, food and water security,
impacting human health and biodiversity and affecting key economic sectors such as
transport and tourism. Global coordination and collaboration of the private sector with the
public sector is the only way to address these interrelated challenges.
95. Better climate information helps business to focus our research and make the right long-
term investments. The viability of businesses depends on their vulnerability to the impacts
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of climate change and their ability to adapt. Predictive services and climate modelling can
help them adjust their business model and open the door to new opportunities. The WCC-3
will help raise awareness and develop climate related services that can assist governments
and businesses in making better decisions. The experts made the following
recommendations:
•
Public-private partnerships. Innovative partnerships that foster rapid development of
advanced technologies to reduce emissions are critical. It is important to bring in all key
stakeholders including sub-national actors, to find innovative solutions to climate
change, (6.4.a)
•
Role of private sector. The Global Framework for Climate Services will help companies
benefit from enhanced climate services and better accessibility to climate information -
we urge you to utilize the expertise of the private sector. (6.4.b)
7.
IMPLEMENTING CLIMATE SERVICES
96. The Conference reviewed a wide range of experiences from developed and developing
countries, from the research and operational communities and from many different parts of
the world, in the implementation of climate services. “Implementation of Climate Services”
sessions were focussed particularly on:
• The end-to–end process of making better use of climate observations in support of
model development and use for operational prediction;
• The role of national and international research programs in supporting the development
and improvement of climate services;
• The diverse experiences of different regions, countries and institutions in the
implementation of climate services.
7.1 From Observations to Predictions
97. This session explored the value chain leading from Earth observation data via processing
and modeling to climate information services for decision-makers. It addressed climate
adaptation services through two case studies on local and regional sea-level rise, and it
highlighted climate mitigation services by presenting an emerging forest-carbon monitoring
system. It also explored the range of activities involved in converting raw satellite
observations into final climate products and services for end users.
98. The experts at this session made the following recommendations:
• Sustained observations. The climate community should, as a top priority, seek to ensure
that climate service providers obtain easy access to sustained and cross-cutting
observations and information; (7.1.a)
• Robust Scenario development. Recognizing that predicting climate changes and impacts
remains a real challenge, climate service providers should focus on delivering robust
scenarios that allow decision-makers to consider a range of options and policy
responses; (7.1.b)
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• Sector-specific information. Because both climate change science and the needs of
decision makers are so complex, climate information providers should craft their
services to meet a diversity of needs, including for local scenarios with short timescales
and global scenarios based on longer time scales. (7.1.c)
7.2 Research Engagement
99. Climate science has advanced significantly during the past three decades, yet many
scientific challenges remain. The essential need is to make quantitative climate predictions
on time scales from seasons to decades and spatial scales of local to regional to global. The
ultimate goal is to create integrative science. This integration must include the
identification of the users’ needs from the outset. This will provide climate information and
services in a timely manner to decision makers and operational organizations.
100. The societal need for authoritative information on climate variability and change
demands increased research and development efforts. These include: improved
understanding of climate processes and feedbacks; better emissions scenarios; advanced
modeling at high spatial resolutions to capture the regional aspects of climate
variations/changes and for realistic representation of crucial climate processes; capacity for
gathering, processing, and sharing observational data for model evaluation and
initialization; development of hardware and software capabilities for analysing and
interpreting the model and observational results; the quantification of uncertainties in a
probabilistic manner including recognition of the high-impact-end of the distributions;
streamlined transition to an operational mode including the generation of climate products
and services; facilitation of feedback from the user community and providing inputs into
the research priorities; and resources and skills to synthesize the information and meet user
needs for decision-making at the global, regional and local levels.
101. There is a clear recognition that the full understanding of climate requires a holistic
approach that accounts for all processes of the Earth system, including socio-economic
processes. To meet the expectations of the proposed Global Framework for Climate
Services there is, therefore, a need for:
• End User focus. Identification of who the end users’ are and a re-evaluation of the
products and services to better meet the needs of the user community; (7.2.a)
• Earth system approach. An Earth system approach to observations, monitoring,
modeling, analysis and prediction, i.e. coordinate and accelerate prediction research is
essential; (7.2.b)
• Data integration. Integration of space-based and in situ observational systems that
accurately capture key climate variables, and are sustained over decades for a robust
determination of trends and variations at the regional and global level; (7.2.c)
• Interactions between models and observations. Synthesis of observations and model
outputs to provide accurate regional / global climate information, and utilization of
model-based uncertainties to plan better observing system strategies, constitute
important scientific underpinnings of any new climate information system and services
(i.e. linking research with operations, services and delivery); (7.2.d)
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• Significantly enhanced high performance computing. Significant enhancements (of at
least a factor of 1000) in high performance computing and tele-communications
networks; (7.2.e)
• Capacity building. Infusion of highly-skilled human scientific talent via training and
capacity building, especially through young scientists and, importantly, in the
developing regions of the world (i.e. developed countries must work with developing
countries in transferring capacity, technology, education and computing. However, the
initiative should come from local experts where the service will be installed). (7.2.f)
7.3 Nations and Regions
102. The national and regional sessions on implementing climate services developed a set of
recommendations as follows:
• Communication strategies. Development of strategies to effectively communicate
relevant and tailored climate information (including measures of uncertainties) to
stakeholders, decision-makers, general public and media are needed; (7.3.a)
• Ownership. Development of “ownership” by the population and users, including
translation of products into local language is important for the effective use of
information; (7.3.b)
• Capacity building. To ensure sustainability of services, capacity-building and effective
in-country training is necessary, as well as funding for COFs. Development of
appropriate tools (e.g., numerical models) and adequate human resources to develop
these tools is an important element in climate application; (7.3.c)
• National activities. National level information on climate change as well as early
warning services are needed for preparation of national adaptation strategies. Matching
capability to user requirements needs effective dialogue; (7.3.d)
• Regional climate services. These services are very important to contribute to enhanced
social and economic resilience and decision-making in many climate-sensitive sectors
(e.g., water resources, agriculture, fisheries, health, energy, and disaster risk
management); (7.3.e)
• Climate in development. Climate information is essential for socio-economic
development. Conscious efforts are needed by stakeholders and key players in climate-
sensitive sectors to understand the full potential and usefulness of this information;
(7.3.f)
• Integration. Good linkages between GCPCs and RCCs are needed for the best use of
products at the regional and national levels. Regional coordination is needed to foster
improvements at the national level. Lessons learned to better tailor information from
GCPCs, RCCs and NCCs should be applied; (7.3.g)
8.
EXPLOITING NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE AND
SERVICES
103. The Expert Segment of the Conference had the opportunity, through plenary poster
sessions and other briefings, to preview a wide range of innovative research, service
provision and application projects which promise to contribute to the quality, range and
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utility of climate services in future years. The Conference participants expressed
appreciation to all those had contributed scientific and technical presentations during the
Expert Segment and were especially appreciative of the information provided on new
developments.
104. Areas of particular interest in the session on “Community and Environment” included:
• Climate issues are already spurring a call to action with poster with, e.g.,:
o Analyses of complex systems showing subtle sensitivities to climate,
o Application of the most basic weather and climate information as the season
unfolds can achieve significant increases in productivity and efficiencies in
natural resource utilization and management.
• Assessing how well communities were indeed adapting to climate change. The most
vulnerable regions of a country, for example, were often not the most proactive in
adaptation planning to a particular hazard, be it flood, storm or drought.
• The diversity of the posters suggests that effective adaptation to climate variability and
change at country, regional and indeed the global level would benefit from a systematic
framework for the delivery and uptake of generalized and targeted climate information
services.
• Critical importance of ongoing climate data for the assessment of fluctuations and
trends in risks arising from exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards.
105. Areas of particular interest in the session on “Climate Science” included:
• Use of climate observations to identify regional trends;
• High resolution modeling at global and regional scales;
• Studies of regional climate change and climate impacts.
106. Areas of particular interest in the session on “Regional and National Examples of the
Provision of Climate Services” included:
• Variety of fields of services for ecological applications, including agriculture;
• Hydrological issues or elaborated on the role of the media to communicate climate
information;
• Existing activities at national level to enhance a country’s capacities to develop tailored
user oriented climate services;
• Good knowledge of the user needs together on the spatial and temporal resolution for
successful climate services. It was noted that the civil society could provide helpful
guidance for the development of climate information and services at local levels;
• Demonstration that good exchange of knowledge and experiences at regional and sub-
regional levels would be beneficial for all involved in delivering climate services;
107. The Conference participants strongly encouraged all of those who had contributed their
work to the Expert Segment to continue to support the progressive implementation of the
proposed Global Framework for Climate Services over the coming years.
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9.
A GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES
108. The Conference recognised that great progress has been made over the past 30 years
towards an integrated global approach to the development, implementation, operation and
application of climate services in support of a wide range of societal needs in all countries
and in all major socio-economic sectors. It particularly recognised the achievements under
the World Climate Programme, especially its World Climate Applications and Services
Programme (WCASP) and the Climate Information and Prediction Services Project
(CLIPS) in the successful implementation of the Regional Climate Outlook Forums
(RCOFs) and their support for enhanced national climate services in many countries.
109. The presentations and discussions made clear, however, that the present arrangements
for provision of climate services fall far short of meeting the identified needs and that
there is vast, as yet largely untapped, potential to enhance these arrangements and the
quality and utility of climate services for the benefit of all countries and all sectors of
society. There was widespread agreement among both provider and user community
representatives that a new global framework is required to enable better management of
the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels
through development and incorporation of science-based climate information into
planning, policy and practice.
110. The participants in the Expert Segment welcomed the extensive preparatory work by
WMO and its partner organisations on the design of the proposed Global Framework for
Climate Services and the consultations that had already taken place with governments
through both technical and diplomatic channels. They were in full agreement that, from
the scientific and operational perspective, the proposed Framework should reinforce and
complement the established international organisations for the provision and application
of weather, climate, water and related environmental information, forecasts and warnings
and should build on, and integrate, the existing international systems and programs for
climate observations and research which are co-sponsored by WMO, other UN System
partner organisations, and ICSU. WMO and user-sector organisations should enhance
collaboration in the development of practical guidance on the preparation and use of
climate products in different sectors and regions.
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111. The participants called for major strengthening of the essential elements of a global
framework for climate services:
a. The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and associated
activities; and provision of free and unrestricted exchange and access to climate
data;
b. The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned by adequate computing
resources and enhancing interaction with other global climate relevant research
initiatives;
c. Climate services information systems taking advantage of enhanced existing
national and international climate service arrangements in the delivery of products,
including sector-oriented information to support adaptation activities;
d. Climate user interface mechanisms focussed on building linkages and integrating
information, at all levels, between the providers and users of climate services
aimed at developing and efficient use of climate information products, including
the support of adaptation activities;
e. Efficient and enduring capacity building through education, training, and
strengthened outreach and communication.
112. On the basis of the three days of discussion and deliberations, the participants
supported the development and implementation of the proposed Global Framework for
Climate Services.
Unformatted version: Geneva, 4 September 2009